Iran's Anxieties and Azerbaijan's Alliances

The tension between Iran and Azerbaijan has gone beyond a mere diplomatic spat—it has become a reflection of deeper shifts in the geopolitical balance across the South Caucasus. Tehran has accused its northern neighbor of allowing Israel to use Azerbaijani territory to launch attacks deep inside Iran, an allegation that resurfaced during the recent twelve-day escalation. Despite repeated denials from Baku, the relationship between the two countries has become increasingly strained and volatile.

From an Iranian perspective, Azerbaijan is no longer just a neighbor—it has become what some in Tehran describe as a "soft flank" exploited by Israel to conduct operations on Iranian soil. While these fears are not entirely new, they have been amplified by persistent reports of Israeli drones being launched from bases near the Iranian border and the alleged presence of Israeli intelligence activity in Azerbaijan.

What further exacerbates Iran’s concerns is the growing alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey on one hand, and Azerbaijan and Israel on the other. The Baku-Ankara relationship is rooted in shared history and culture, and it is reflected in military cooperation, joint exercises, and open political support. Israel, meanwhile, has emerged as a key arms supplier to Azerbaijan and a significant partner in its energy sector.

Baku, for its part, maintains that Tehran’s accusations lack concrete evidence and reflect an exaggerated sense of threat. Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly stated that their relationship with Israel is based on legitimate national interests—primarily in technology and defense—and insist that no foreign actor is allowed to use Azerbaijani territory to target a third country.

Moreover, Baku perceives Tehran’s behavior as unwarranted interference in its internal affairs, whether through religious messaging aimed at Azerbaijan’s Shiite population or Iran’s closer ties with Armenia—Azerbaijan’s traditional adversary—which many in Baku viewed as a betrayal at a critical moment when Azerbaijan was seeking regional support.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations remains uncertain, though the trend points toward greater complexity and volatility. If Tehran persists in its accusations and Baku clings to its alliances, the tension between the two will likely remain within the bounds of a "cold war" dynamic—but it could escalate if another security incident occurs, either at the border or inside Iran.

Iran-Azerbaijan tensions reflect a broader struggle for influence in the Caucasus—a region increasingly shaped by the intersecting interests of regional and global powers, from Russia and Turkey to Israel and Iran. While the people of the South Caucasus yearn for stability, their homeland risks becoming a battleground for proxy conflicts. The pressing question remains: can the South Caucasus emerge as a model for regional balance, or will it continue to serve as a theater for competing agendas?

The tension between Iran and Azerbaijan has gone beyond a mere diplomatic spat—it has become a reflection of deeper shifts in the geopolitical balance across the South Caucasus. Tehran has accused its northern neighbor of allowing Israel to use Azerbaijani territory to launch attacks deep inside Iran, an allegation that resurfaced during the recent twelve-day escalation. Despite repeated denials from Baku, the relationship between the two countries has become increasingly strained and volatile.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, relations between Tehran and Baku have been marked by cautious skepticism. However, the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was a major turning point. Iran’s accusations against Azerbaijan intensified, particularly regarding military and intelligence cooperation with Israel and the alleged establishment of an Israeli foothold near Iran’s borders—a development Tehran views as a direct threat to its national security.

In the early years following Azerbaijan’s independence, Tehran attempted to foster friendly ties with Baku, motivated by a complex mix of geopolitical, demographic, and religious factors. The two nations share a long border, and the sizable Azeri population in Iran represents a sensitive variable in Tehran’s internal calculations, given their numbers and social influence.

Yet, political divergence has consistently surfaced. Azerbaijan’s secular, nationalist orientation, closely aligned with the West and Turkey, contrasts sharply with Iran’s religious governance model and its anti-Western stance. As tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, Tehran grew increasingly wary of Baku’s deepening ties with Tel Aviv, particularly in the defense and intelligence sectors.

From an Iranian perspective, Azerbaijan is no longer just a neighbor—it has become what some in Tehran describe as a "soft flank" exploited by Israel to conduct operations on Iranian soil. While these fears are not entirely new, they have been amplified by persistent reports of Israeli drones being launched from bases near the Iranian border and the alleged presence of Israeli intelligence activity in Azerbaijan.

What further exacerbates Iran’s concerns is the growing alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey on one hand, and Azerbaijan and Israel on the other. The Baku-Ankara relationship is rooted in shared history and culture, and it is reflected in military cooperation, joint exercises, and open political support. Israel, meanwhile, has emerged as a key arms supplier to Azerbaijan and a significant partner in its energy sector.

Tehran views these alliances as reshaping the geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus in ways that undermine its strategic interests. More troubling for Iran is the intersection of these alliances with sensitive issues such as the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the status of the Azeri minority in Iran, and the potential encouragement of separatist sentiments in northern Iranian provinces.

Baku, for its part, maintains that Tehran’s accusations lack concrete evidence and reflect an exaggerated sense of threat. Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly stated that their relationship with Israel is based on legitimate national interests—primarily in technology and defense—and insist that no foreign actor is allowed to use Azerbaijani territory to target a third country.

Moreover, Baku perceives Tehran’s behavior as unwarranted interference in its internal affairs, whether through religious messaging aimed at Azerbaijan’s Shiite population or Iran’s closer ties with Armenia—Azerbaijan’s traditional adversary—which many in Baku viewed as a betrayal at a critical moment when Azerbaijan was seeking regional support.

The January 2023 armed attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran marked a critical juncture. Although Iranian authorities described the incident as an isolated act and arrested the perpetrator, Baku saw it as part of a larger pattern of hostility and responded by suspending embassy operations. This rare diplomatic move highlighted the depth of mistrust and the seriousness of the bilateral rift.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations remains uncertain, though the trend points toward greater complexity and volatility. If Tehran persists in its accusations and Baku clings to its alliances, the tension between the two will likely remain within the bounds of a "cold war" dynamic—but it could escalate if another security incident occurs, either at the border or inside Iran.

At the same time, both sides recognize the high costs of direct confrontation. Iran is aware that excessive pressure on Azerbaijan might drive Baku further into the Western camp. Conversely, Azerbaijan understands that open escalation with Tehran could trigger an additional front at a time when the region is undergoing reconstruction following the reassertion of control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

In conclusion, Iran-Azerbaijan tensions reflect a broader struggle for influence in the Caucasus—a region increasingly shaped by the intersecting interests of regional and global powers, from Russia and Turkey to Israel and Iran. While the people of the South Caucasus yearn for stability, their homeland risks becoming a battleground for proxy conflicts. The pressing question remains: can the South Caucasus emerge as a model for regional balance, or will it continue to serve as a theater for competing agendas?