The Next UN Secretary-General: Representing the Few or the Many?

The international community is awaiting the election of a new Secretary-General of the United Nations—hearings for candidates for the post of the Organization’s chief administrative officer are due to begin in the UN General Assembly during the week of 20 April 2026.

When discussing possible alignments and the chances of candidates in the current electoral cycle, it is worth briefly revisiting the twists and turns of 2016. At that time, there was something of a break with convention, as—according to an informal agreement—the primary right to nominate a candidate rested with the Eastern European Group, and for the first time a woman was expected to head the UN. The compromise choice was António Guterres, nominated by the Western European and Others Group.

In the current electoral cycle, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean Group are asserting their priority right to nominate a candidate. Taking the gender factor into account, the expectation is that a woman will head the UN. However, there is no formal rule governing the rotation of the Secretary-General’s post between regional groups or adherence to a gender principle, and, as the above experience shows, this arrangement is not always fully implemented.

In the context of the evident crisis within the UN, there is a pressing need for the next Secretary-General to be an exceptional and energetic individual, prepared to make every effort to address key international problems and to reform the Organization. The powers vested in the Secretary-General by the UN Charter provide sufficient scope for action. One can only hope that the new chief administrative officer of the UN will go down in history as a truly general secretary, rather than merely a personal secretary serving the interests of a narrow group of states.

The international community is awaiting the election of a new Secretary-General of the United Nations—hearings for candidates for the post of the Organization’s chief administrative officer are due to begin in the UN General Assembly during the week of 20 April 2026.

It is well known that throughout its existence the United Nations has been criticized for its low effectiveness, primarily in maintaining international peace and security—one of the Organization’s principal objectives enshrined in its Charter. One may counter that the UN is only as effective as its Member States allow it to be. This argument, of course, also applies to the personality of the Secretary-General—ultimately, it is the states that will decide whether the UN is to be led by a figure with leadership ambitions or by an uncharismatic technocrat. Against the backdrop of such “heavyweights” of world politics as Boutros Boutros-Ghali (Egypt) [1] and Kofi Annan (Ghana) [2], under technocrats such as Ban Ki-moon (Republic of Korea) [3] and António Guterres (Portugal) [4], the UN has, to a large extent, lost its authority and impartiality. In assessing the performance of the incumbent Secretary-General, it is appropriate to recall the statement made by US President Donald Trump from the UNGA podium that the Organization is not even attempting to realize its enormous potential.

When discussing possible alignments and the chances of candidates in the current electoral cycle, it is worth briefly revisiting the twists and turns of 2016. At that time, there was something of a break with convention, as—according to an informal agreement—the primary right to nominate a candidate rested with the Eastern European Group, and for the first time a woman was expected to head the UN.

At that point, the optimal candidate for the post of Secretary-General was former Bulgarian Foreign Minister Irina Bokova—the first woman to lead the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), with excellent command of four of the UN’s six official languages—Russian, French, Spanish, and English. For political reasons (it was alleged that Bokova, as a graduate and honorary doctor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, was supposedly convenient for Russia), her candidacy was not supported by Washington.

Ultimately, the compromise choice was António Guterres, nominated by the Western European and Others Group. It would appear that his candidacy did not meet with objections from Russia, as no comparable political “heavyweights” from Eastern Europe—aside from Bokova—were put forward. It is also possible that consideration was given to the fact that Guterres had been Secretary-General of the Portuguese Socialist Party, had served as Prime Minister of Portugal, and had experience within the UN system—having held the post of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for ten years (2005–2015).

In the current electoral cycle, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean Group are asserting their priority right to nominate a candidate. Taking the gender factor into account, the expectation is that a woman will head the UN. However, there is no formal rule governing the rotation of the Secretary-General’s post between regional groups or adherence to a gender principle, and, as the above experience shows, this arrangement is not always fully implemented.

The candidates put forward at this stage suggest that the election will take into account not only their professional qualities, experience, and program statements, but also the forces backing them and the political line pursued by the leadership of the countries that nominated them.

Argentina was the first (on 26 November 2025) to nominate Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Having already been put forward as a candidate, he has echoed Washington’s assessments of the UN, stating that the Organization has “lost its ability to effectively prevent armed conflicts and is increasingly absent from war zones”.

Grossi’s ambiguous position is well known—he has repeatedly been criticized by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including for statements concerning the duration of the presence of IAEA Secretariat experts at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Under pressure from Western states, Grossi introduced ambiguous wording into his reports on Iran’s nuclear program. Such conduct clearly contradicts Article VII, paragraph F, of the IAEA Statute, which stipulates that “in the performance of their duties, the Director General and the staff shall not seek or receive instructions from any source external to the Agency”. A similar principle is set out in Article 100 of the UN Charter with regard to the position of Secretary-General.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei has repeatedly stated that he considers liberal democracies and Western countries—particularly the United States and Israel—to be priority partners.

Under his leadership, the country withdrew from joining BRICS and, following the United States, exited the World Health Organization—an important specialized agency of the UN. In 2024, Milei dismissed Foreign Minister Diana Mondino after the Argentine delegation supported a UN General Assembly resolution calling for an end to the US trade and economic embargo against Cuba.

On 25 March 2026, Argentina, together with the United States and Israel, voted against the adoption of a UN General Assembly resolution recognizing the enslavement of Africans as one of the gravest crimes against humanity. These foreign policy steps by Buenos Aires will inevitably entail reputational costs for Grossi and may deprive him of African support as Argentina’s candidate.

In contrast to Grossi’s candidacy, the left-leaning countries of Latin America—Brazil, Mexico, and Chile—nominated Michelle Bachelet on 2 February 2026, the first woman in Chile’s history to be elected head of state (2006–2010 and 2014–2018). However, following the inauguration on 11 March 2026 of Chile’s right-wing president José Antonio Kast, the Chilean government announced the withdrawal of its support for Bachelet’s candidacy Nevertheless, the presidents of Brazil and Mexico confirmed that their countries would continue to support her bid for the post of the next UN Secretary-General.

Bachelet has extensive experience within the UN system—between her presidential terms, she served as Executive Director of UN Women, while simultaneously holding the rank of UN Under-Secretary-General. After leaving politics, she served for four years (2018–2022) as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

In the context of the Ukrainian crisis, it is worth recalling Bachelet’s appeal—while serving as High Commissioner for Human Rights—to the President of Russia to “halt the armed attack on Ukraine”. At the same time, she remained silent about crimes committed by the Kiev regime against civilians in Donbas.

Against the backdrop of this “battle of titans”, the candidacy of Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica may emerge as a compromise option. An economist and former Vice President of the country (1994–1998), she has served since 2021 as Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Under her leadership, the Organization has become more influential, focusing on reforming the global trading system, expanding developing countries’ access to technology, credit, and resilient supply chains.

Grynspan is also remembered by the wider public for her participation in negotiations on the implementation of the Memorandum between Russia and the UN on the normalization of Russian agricultural exports. However, as noted by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “the considerable efforts undertaken by the Russian inter-agency delegation and the team of UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan within the framework of cooperation on the memorandum did not yield the desired results”.

To some extent, Grynspan has been dealt a disservice as a candidate from Costa Rica by the country’s president, Rodrigo Chaves, who ordered the closure of Cuba’s embassy and the expulsion of Cuban diplomatic personnel “as a sign of protest against the poor living conditions of the Cuban population”. The question remains whether Grynspan, as an experienced international civil servant, will be able to distance herself from ambiguous signals emanating from San José (and Washington) in her professional activities.

In addition, candidates in the race include former President of Senegal (2012–2024) Macky Sall, nominated by Burundi in his capacity as the current Chair of the African Union.

In the context of the evident crisis within the UN, there is a pressing need for the next Secretary-General to be an exceptional and energetic individual, prepared to make every effort to address key international problems and to reform the Organization. The powers vested in the Secretary-General by the UN Charter provide sufficient scope for action. One can only hope that the new chief administrative officer of the UN will go down in history as a truly general secretary, rather than merely a personal secretary serving the interests of a narrow group of states.

First published in the Valdai Discussion Club.

1. Sixth Secretary-General of the United Nations, serving from 1992 to 1996.

2.Seventh Secretary-General of the United Nations, term of office 1997–2006.

3.Eighth Secretary-General of the United Nations, term of office 2007–2016.

4.Ninth Secretary-General of the United Nations, term of office 2017-present.