Japan's cabinet resigned en masse. Interview with Dmitry Streltsov

On 1 October, Yoshihiko Noda, Prime Minister of Japan, accepted the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers and made new appointments. Ten Ministers out of 18 were replaced. We asked Mr Dmitry ,Streltsov, Head of the MGIMO (Moscow Institute for International Relations of the Russian MFA) Oriental Studies Department about the reasons it was done and which consequences it may have.

On 1 October, Yoshihiko Noda, Prime Minister of Japan, accepted the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers and made new appointments. Ten Ministers out of 18 were replaced. We asked Mr Dmitry ,Streltsov, Head of the MGIMO (Moscow Institute for International Relations of the Russian MFA) Oriental Studies Department about the reasons it was done and which consequences it may have.

The Japanese Cabinet of Ministers has undergone an extensive change, Ten Ministers out of 18 were replaced. According to the press, Yoshihiko Noda made this step to increase the popularity of the ruling party. What was, in your opinion, the reason for a decline in its popularity?

First of all, the primary reason is a growing distrust for the Democratic Party of Japan which hasn’t fulfilled any of its campaign promises. It is noteworthy that DPJ already suffered defeat at the elections to the Upper Chamber of the Parliament in 2010. Therefore, while trying to facelift the image of the Cabinet Noda seeks to demonstrate that there are new people coming to the leadership.

Do you believe those steps were justified?

Absolutely. Currently DPJ is split: in August a large part of MPs (about 50 people) left the Party, so the position of Noda’s Cabinet in the Parliament is rather shaky at the moment. If ten more MPs from the Lower Chamber leave the Party, then the Democrats will lose the opportunity to form the government.

Why do you think Noda chose exactly these politicians?

There were no major changes in key positions. Many appointments were prompted by Noda’s fear of further MPs deserting the party and he is trying to “appease” his own opponents within the party to slow the process down or, if possible, to stop it fot all.

The Secretary-General of DPJ remained in his position even though he disagreed with Noda on many policy issues. Many people consider him to be close to Odzawa who left the party in August. All in all, in new Noda’s Cabinet there are three people who are believed to side with Odzawa. They are Makiko Tanaka, daughter of a famous post-war Premier, she had already been a Minister of Foreign Affairs and now holds a position of the Minister in Education and Science, and also Wakiko Mitsui and Ikko Nakatsuka. In my opinion when Noda appointed them, he made it to influence his swinging opponents within the party.

Some of the new Cabinet appointments are people personally committed to Noda. For example, Koriki Dzyodzima who was responsible in DPJ for the relations with other groups in the Parliament now became a Minister for Finance even though he doesn’t have any personal record in that area. This means that the Premier relies on bureaucracy and doesn’t need a strong politician there who can interfere with the business of the Ministry.

One of Noda’s supporters is a political heavyweight and his potential successor Maehara who served as a Foreign Minister under Premier Naoto Kano. Now he has been appointed as the Minister for National Strategy and in fact became responsible for implementing social security and taxation reforms. Noda pays particular attention to that subject and Maehara,s appointment clearly shows it.

Today the main challenge for the Prime-minister is to prevent a split within the DPJ, to hang on until the next elections which will take place the next summer.

What other aims Noda was pursuing when he made new appointments to the Cabinet?

Now his agenda includes reaching out to the Liberal-Democratic Party and the Komeito Party. Three parties have already agreed to work together in passing the bill on social security and taxation reforms. Since the opposition controls the upper house of the Parliament, Noda requires their support to carry out this reform. Moreover, Noda is still under pressure of the no-confidence vote that was announced by the opposition-held upper chamber in early September.

The adoption of the supplementary budget to rebuild the country after the Fukushima disaster is the main challenge Noda is facing. The votes of LDP and Komeito are required to pass it. And to obtain these votes, he had to introduce new politicians to the Cabinet who haven’t done anything wrong yet.

We can’t really say that the changes in the Cabinet were epic. The key positions remained unchanged.

Dmitry, we can read some people saying in the Internet that another goal for Noda is to improve relations with China. Do you believe these new political changes were aimed at that?

There will be no major changes in the foreign policy of Japan, because the same Foreign Minister has remained in office. Both Noda and Gamba are fairly rigid about Senkaku Islands and any reconciliation it is unlikely. It is be more likely that there will be political changes and LDP will to power with, for instance, its new leader Abe Sindzo. He already had this experience of establishing relations with China when he was Prime Minister.

Do you believe Noda will achieve his goals?

Now, time works in favor of Noda because DPJ is still rather consolidated. Everyone who was openly opposed him have already left, and those who remained, even from the opposition, are afraid to leave as for them it would be tantamount to a political suicide. Therefore, the thoughts about upcoming elections consolidate the Party around Noda, and I think it is most likely that there will be no split in the DPJ before the new elections.