A European Response to US Withdrawal from the INF Treaty

Ahead of the meeting of President Putin and President Trump in Paris on November 11th 2018, 79 European political, diplomatic and military leadership figures are appealing to both Russia and the US not to take unilateral action that would jeopardise the future of the INF without further efforts, such a move would likely trigger an arms race and damage the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.

The full statement is reproduced below.

A European response to US withdrawal from the INF Treaty

ELN statement November 2018

President Trump’s declared intention to withdraw the United States from the 1987 US-Russia Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) calls into question not only the fate of this pivotal accord but also the future of nuclear arms control, with potentially grave consequences for European security.

The INF treaty may indeed have been violated. And it may be anachronistic. But it is symbolic of great power cooperation on nuclear risks and it has been a stabilising force in Europe’s security over the past three decades.  Europe is the sandpit in which US-Russia confrontation over INF will be played out.  Europe is entitled to a say in what happens next.

US intentions have been poorly communicated in Europe. This leaves America’s European Allies supporting Washington’s judgment about Russian non-compliance, but not necessarily Washington’s response.  Divergent European and American approaches to the INF crisis would be highly damaging.

Even more troubling would be the likely consequences of the Treaty’s demise.

The New START Agreement, which limits US and Russian strategic nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles, expires in 2021 and the INF crisis increases the risk that it will not be extended or replaced.  Collapse of INF would spur the development of new nuclear and strategic conventional weapon systems, including INF-class missiles. These systems claim to strengthen deterrence but are more likely to fuel an arms race. The costs to international nuclear stability, European security, and taxpayers in all countries concerned could be high. And unless INF is maintained or replaced, its loss will deepen international cynicism about gradual nuclear disarmament, with consequent damage to the nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Strong voices in the US share these views.

The INF crisis has focused the attention of European decision-makers on arms control. They should now move beyond statements of concern towards action on the following recommendations:

• Gro Harlem Brundtland, Former Prime Minister of Norway, Former Director-General of the World Health Organisation (WHO)
• Espen Barth Eide, Former Foreign Minister, Former Minister of Defence

Poland

• Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Former Defence Minister and Chair, Executive Council, Euro-Atlantic Association

Portugal

• Ricardo Baptista Leite MP, MD, Member of Parliament

Russia

• Ambassador Anatoly Adamishin, Former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the UK
• Dr Alexey Arbatov, Former Deputy Chairman of the Duma Defence Committee; Head of the Center for International Security, Institute of World Economy and International Relations
• General Vladimir Dvorkin, Lead scientist at the Center of the International Safety of the Institute of Economic and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences
• Ambassador Boris Pankin, Former Foreign Minister of the former USSR
• Dr Dmitry Polikanov, Chairman of the Trialogue Club and member of the Expert Council of the Russian Government
• Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Management Board of the Institute for Contemporary Development

Serbia

• Goran Svilanović, Secretary-General, Regional Cooperation Council

Sweden

• Dr Hans Blix, Former Foreign Minister and former IAEA Director General
• Ingvar Carlsson, Former Prime Minister
• Rolf Ekeus, Former Ambassador to the United States, former High Commissioner on national minorities in Europe
• Gunnar Hökmark, MEP
• Henrik Salander, Former Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament, Secretary-General of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission

Turkey

• Professor Mustafa Aydin, President, International Relations Council of Turkey
• Hikmet Çetin, Former Foreign Minister
• Ambassador Ünal Çeviköz, Former Ambassador to the United Kingdom
• Vahit Erdem, Former Head of the Turkish Delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly
• Osman Faruk Loğoğlu, Former Turkish Ambassador to the United States and former Undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• Özdem Sanberk, Former Ambassador to the United Kingdom; Former Under Secretary to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

United Kingdom

• Rt. Hon Margaret Beckett, Former Foreign Secretary
• Sir Tony Brenton, Former UK Ambassador to Russia
• Lord Des Browne, Former Minister of Defence; Member of the House of Lords
• Lord Menzies Campbell of Pittenweem, Former Leader of the Liberal Democrats
• Rt. Hon. Charles Clarke, Former Home Secretary
• Stephen Gethins, MP
• Lord David Hannay of Chiswick, Former Ambassador of the UK to the EEC, Former Ambassador of the UK to the UN
• Sir Nick Harvey, former Member of Parliament and former Minister of State for the Armed Forces
• Rt. Hon. Lord John Kerr of Kinochard, Former British Ambassador to the United States and the EU
• Rt. Hon. Lord Tom King of Bridgwater, Former Defence Secretary
• Gen. Sir John McColl, Former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (Deputy SACEUR)
• Gen. Lord David Ramsbotham, Retired General Army, Former Adjutant General; Former ADC General to HM the Queen
• Lord David Richards of Herstmonceux, Former Chief of the Defence Staff
• Rt. Hon. Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Former Foreign Secretary, Former Defence Secretary
• Rt. Hon. Sir John Stanley, Former Chairman of the Committees on Arms Export Controls; Former Minister for the Armed Forces
• Baroness Elizabeth Symnons of Vernham Dean, Former Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Ministry of Defence Minister
• Sir Adam Thomson, Former UK Perm Rep to NATO; Director, European Leadership Network
• Lord David Triesman, Former Foreign Office Minister and Chairman of the Football Association
• Lord William Wallace of Saltaire, Member of the House of Lords
• Rt. Hon the Admiral Lord Alan West of Spithead, First Sea Lord and Commander in Chief of the Royal Navy
• Rt. Hon. Baroness Shirley Williams, Former Leader of the Liberal Democrats in the House of Lords, Former Adviser on Nuclear Proliferation to the Prime Minister