... security challenges change, recently emerged threats take the place of conventional ones. Russia, Europe and the U.S. all question whether NATO is suited to the realities of... ... meeting in Brussels, held from April 3-4, effectively shifted the burden of funding Ukraine from the U.S. to European countries. The ministerial also discussed the issues... ... accession of Finland and Sweden, and NATO’s further enlargement, primarily in the Western Balkans.
Dmitry Danilov, Head of the Department of European Security at the...
.... The Minsk agreements left the possibility of a relatively soft exit from the crisis. However, Russia’s tough and resolute line had already caused alarm in the West. Here the path was chosen to contain and counteract Moscow. Relations between the West and Russia in the post-Soviet space, and especially in Ukraine, finally entered rivalry mode, and later, the Minsk agreements would be openly called by some Western leaders a maneuverer to prepare for a new fight. Russian support for the Syrian government showed that Moscow would prevent “social engineering” ...
... Beijing’s relations with Moscow, which, in turn, influence the strategic structure and balance of power, and this will certainly have important repercussions for the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
***
A more accurate definition of China’s positioning in the Russia–Ukraine conflict is
constructive intervention rather than neutrality. Unlike the US and the West, China’s policy is not based on choosing a side, but oriented toward constructive results.
At this stage, China’s understanding of constructiveness can be summarized in the
twelve-point proposition of the Ukraine peace plan it proposed in February ...
... through intermediaries too. That allows countries to arrive at outcomes that benefit them (grain supply guarantees, ensuring stable market for energy resources, etc.) and to maintain a communication channel between Moscow and Kiev.
Choosing between Russia, Ukraine and the West brings these states no advantages. Each is guided by its own interests and will continue to make use of new opportunities. Therefore, policies of Middle Eastern states toward Russia amid the Ukrainian conflict remain pragmatic and balanced even despite ...
... probably see a re-emergence of the unipolar moment—the remaining opposition to this arrangement by Beijing notwithstanding. Although Ukraine might be unfinished business for Mr Putin, Russia’s status is itself unfinished business for many in the West. Triumph for Ukraine might lead to a tamed and domesticated Russia. A quiet Russia would allow the West to cope more easily with China, which would be the only major obstacle to liberal hegemony and the long-awaited “end of history”.
If the conflict results with an imperfect but mutually acceptable settlement,...
Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive ...
For the West, the battle for Ukraine has become the battle for Russia. The battle for Russia is only the first phase of the battle against China
For the West, Russia’s actions in Ukraine have revealed and confirmed the true face of Russia and its leadership. For much of the global East and South, the West’s policy from the mid-1990s right up to its gross overreaction to the situation in Ukraine was a reminder and revelation ...
... only temporarily captured China’s seemingly entrenched role as a major U.S. villain, while the West will fight for the narratives to influence the minds and hearts of the rest of the world
Russia and the world are living through times of change. Russia has started a “special operation” in Ukraine, and the West can do little or nothing. Impotence is always a difficult thing to acknowledge, especially for the West.
The West has no military option, and instead U.S. media spread disinformation from the CIA, claiming that “Russian army will be stopped by ...
... rise of China and the rapprochement between Russia and China. In other words, the strategic offensive posture of NATO, which derives from the moment of unipolarity, was expected to linger in Europe.
When Russia recognized the two breakaway republics of Russian-speakers in Ukraine, following it up with troop infusion, the West could have understood the heightened yet long-standing security compulsions of Russia, considering it as a continuum of the Russian policy since 2014 and an attempt to contain things at that point. Instead, Germany chose to pull the plug on Nord ...
... solve this difficult task. Many practical proposals have been prepared on both Ukraine and broader issues pertaining to European security.
Unfortunately, none of these proposals have been heard to become a cut-off point for an agreement. The gap between Russia and the West was widening, while tensions around Ukraine continued to build up. As a result, the eight-year truce ended in February 2022 with Moscow’s diplomatic recognition of the DNR (Donetsk People’s Republic) and the LNR (Lugansk People’s Republic) in the Donbass region as well as with the ...
