... returned all previously lifted sanctions against Tehran, but also significantly increased pressure on the financial, metallurgical, energy and a number of other sectors of the Iranian economy. It is likely that Biden will attempt to return America to the JCPOA. This will not be easy. The big question is: what will happen to Trump’s sanctions legacy? Will the sanctions be lifted, suspended or modified? Under what conditions could this be done? For example, will the renewal of the arms embargo become ...
... diplomatic crisis management, but it might not be able to swiftly erode the risk of war.
Several factors contributing to the risk of a US-Iran war remain persistent throughout 2021. First, both sides’ violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has complicated the resolution of the nuclear crisis with a face-saving option, raising the chance of failure. Second, while Washington assesses its extended sanction regime as invaluable leverage, Tehran see its nuclear potential and the swift ...
... stringent policy against Russia, that was depicted as the “biggest threat” to the U.S. Recent remarks by Russian officials suggest that Moscow sees the Trump administration’s two main Iran policy legacies in the Middle East, i.e., withdrawing from JCPOA and emboldening Israel through peace deals, as an opportunity for deepening alignment with Iran and promoting Russia’s great power status. Although winning the next Iranian presidential election by hardliners will create an additional capacity ...
A new year and new President presents an opportunity for the U.S. to rethink its foreign policy
With both a new year and new president, 2021 presents an opportunity for the United States to rethink its foreign policy.
The past four years have been some of the most consequential for U.S. foreign policy, with President Donald J. Trump taking a radically different approach. As some predecessors have done, Trump pushed an America-First agenda and foreign policy. This included
renegotiating
the North...
... could be met with a number of problems, and the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh can have another negative impact on the future potential agreement between the US and Iran.
New deal, new terms?
Ivan Timofeev:
USA vs. JCPOA: How Can Russia and China Respond?
It is presumed that many decisions in the administration of J. Biden will be made and implemented by his advisors and confidants from the Democratic Party. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s future national security advisor,...
... cooperation with Iran on the basis of Resolution 2231
A new round of escalation of US sanctions pressure on Iran is taking place in connection with Tehran’s “violation” of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (hereinafter referred to as the JCPOA or “nuclear deal”). It is connected with the expiration of the embargo on the supply of conventional weapons to Iran, provided for by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015). On September 21, 2020, US President Donald Trump signed an executive ...
Serious political crisis around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program became the most significant event in recent times
The reason was the approaching expiration of the five-year term of the arms embargo and prohibition on ballistic missile transfers to Iran. The
UN Security Council ...
... forever" should the arms embargo be further extended. The chairman of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee,
Mojtaba Zolnoori
, declared that such a situation could lead to a series of consequences, including the collapse of the JCPOA, stopping the implementation of the Additional Protocol, or even the withdrawal from NPT.
Iranian authorities' harsh response shows that Iran's goals and the decision to lift the country's arms embargo go beyond the scope of buying or selling weapons....
... often accused of being utterly unpredictable. Yet on a number of issues he has demonstrated a high degree of consistency. Arms control is a prime example.
In 2017, Trump delivered on his promise to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) six-nation agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. In 2019, he canceled the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia. His plan now to leave the Open Skies Treaty, a 1992 accord that allows for aerial reconnaissance of the territory ...
... was a whirl of change in the region. The immediate post-popular uprisings phase had played out. Crucially there was new leadership in Saudi Arabia, finding its feet, still deciding on its direction. There was uncertainty in the region following the JCPOA nuclear deal, questions of where American-Iranian relations would go. And there was a sense of game on, that everything was up for grabs.
The Obama administration seemed to have been encouraging a gradual move towards a balance of power in the region,...
