... United States and Russia, as well as by a large group of states that have the necessary capabilities. Many of those countries are in high-risk regions where military tensions are already elevated.
Dmitry Stefanovich:
Post-Helsinki Opportunities for New START and the INF Treaty?
I would venture to suggest that, following the withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the U.S. Administration will waste no time in making the decision not to prolong the New START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) signed in April 2010 and ...
... maneuver—and they hope that the White House has not made a final decision yet. But the INF Treaty has been dying a slow death for several years, and the chances of preserving it dwindle every month.
Dmitry Stefanovich:
Post-Helsinki Opportunities for New START and the INF Treaty?
Neither Russia nor the United States has displayed much political will or persistence in seeking a compromise or taking unilateral steps to rescue the treaty. It is clear that neither side has considered saving the INF treaty—not to mention ...
... parties agree to lower the ceilings further, while simultaneously developing new delivery systems.
Thirdly, simply extending New START will not greatly improve arms control in the long run. Any further reductions must envisage the involvement of other ... ... strategy: deterrence, strategic stability etc. The latter process may start as a Track II discussion.
Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky:
INF Treaty: More than Just an Agreement
The INF is a tougher topic. Both countries have officially accused each other of breaching ...
... formal impact on any other agreements, but it does affect them indirectly. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) is to be either prolonged or replaced with a new agreement in 2021. It is possible that, if one of the parties withdraws from the INF Treaty, this will result in the active build-up of weapons of mass destruction with the use of short- and medium-range missiles. In such a situation, the New START would no longer work, and a new agreement would be next to impossible to sign, with all the consequences this would entail for the international security system.
The INF and New START treaties exert a deterrent effect on the other nuclear powers,...
The simulation has shown that a sudden first strike by the United States on Russia would take out up to 86 per cent of Russia’s SNFs in “delivery systems” and 87 per cent in “explosive tonnage”.
The development of strategic nuclear forces (SNF) is becoming an increasingly relevant topic in light of the latest United States Nuclear Posture Review and other policy papers, as well as Russia’s announcement regarding the development of new nuclear delivery vehicles. China is also developing its own...
... a military conflict. We must work together, including our militaries, to increase transparency and trust.
Fourth, work jointly to preserve and extend existing agreements and treaties, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and New START Treaty.
These two agreements are crucial to sustaining transparency and predictability. In the absence of these agreements, there will be no regulations on nuclear forces, exacerbating today’s already high risks.
Fifth, continue consultations ...
... of eliminating nuclear weapons altogether, a goal which then Presidents Obama and Medvedev confirmed and supported in 2009.
Yet with the 1987 Treaty on Intermediate Nuclear Forces practically defunct thanks to reciprocal alleged violations, and the New START treaty limiting overall strategic nuclear arsenals under stress, an optimistic long-term goal like nuclear zero is hardly on the agenda for Moscow or Washington. Instead, both must now confront the urgent negative consequences of stalled U.S....
... maintain and strengthen the arms-control safety net. That’s why it’s necessary to resume a Russian-U.S. dialogue that will lead to official negotiations. For now, the agenda should be narrow, prioritizing three key issues: the preservation of the INF Treaty, the prolongation of the New START treaty, and the prevention of dangerous military accidents.
SAVING THE ARMS-CONTROL SAFETY NET
At present, the INF Treaty is in danger of collapsing because of accusations of violation on both sides. Addressing these accusations is the first ...
... on exercises) on the military buildup taking place in Central Europe. Rather than the bobbing and weaving currently underway, the two sides need to stare hard at reality and decide whether failure is in either’s interest. Thus, for example, if the INF treaty is lost, so will be the future of strategic nuclear arms control. Renewal of New START in 2021 becomes a fading thought, but, even if not, having for seven years ceased considering what comes after START, when New START, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement, finally expires that will be the end of nuclear arms control ...
... previously allocated budgets for the projects that are to be suspended, and also for these projects to be promptly re-activated if need be.
The air-launched aero-ballistic missile as part of the Kinzhal system is, in fact, an elegant solution to the INF Treaty problem, while not being formally covered by the New START.
As previously mentioned, Russia conducted an ABM “therapy” session for both the external audience and, perhaps more to the point, for internal consumption. However, given the
previous history of the issue
, primarily Moscow’s reiterated ...
