... report “Rebels without a Cause: Russia’s Proxies in Eastern Ukraine”.
On September 6, 2019, RIAC hosted an expert seminar and the presentation of the International Crisis Group report “
Rebels without a Cause: Russia’s Proxies in Eastern Ukraine
”.
The event was attended by the authors of the report, as well as representatives of Russian expert community to discuss current issues regarding analysis and assessment of the crisis settlement process in Donbass.
... unlikely that we will see any strategic changes in Kiev’s stance on the key issues of Russia–Ukraine relations.
What changes should be expected in the east of Ukraine?
Viktor Mironenko:
We should not wait for changes to take place in the east of Ukraine. Rather, we should be saving people, people who have been deceived and who now find themselves in a situation where normal life is simply impossible. If we are talking Donbass, the most realistic outlook thus far is a humanitarian and environmental disaster comparable to Chernobyl.
Aleksandr Levchenkov:
Some of V. Zelensky’s statements on the prospects on settling the conflict in Donbass (readiness for a cease-fire,...
... default on its foreign debt, and did not abandon its course for a liberal market economy. The Minsk agreements are, for the most part, not being implemented. People in Donbass continue to die, but there is no major military escalation in the east of Ukraine: the Donbass militia did not attempt to take Mariupol, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not start a large-scale offensive against Donetsk. Moscow and Kiev trade harsh political statements and economic sanctions. At the same time, as of last year, Russia ...
... it be possible to overcome the new east division of the continent. At the same time, the Ukrainian crisis cannot be resolved completely all efforts are focused on it alone, outside the context of solving broader European problems. Restoring peace in Donbass, normalizing Russia–Ukraine relations and finding new approaches to European security in general need to be viewed as parallel objectives, not consecutive ones. It will take many years, if not decades, to solve these problems. However, the launch of a UN peacekeeping operation ...
... catastrophe in Donbass remains very real — socioeconomic problems continue to worsen, particularly in rural areas and in small working communities that were not exactly prosperous before the crisis began in 2014. Economic ties and transport links between Donbass and the rest of Ukraine have been severed, heaping additional pressure on the region. A significant portion of the working population fled the region during the war, and the issue of returning more than 2 million refugees and internally displaced persons to their homes ...
... and science faculties of the former Soviet Union.
What should be the mandate of this Asian-led UN peacekeeping force? If the starting Russian position, as articulated at Xiamen – that is, that it should be limited to protecting OSCE observers in the Donbass – was manifestly too narrow, then Ukraine, the EU and the US should treat this as a starting position in a negotiation that expands the mandate to something that categorically ends the bloodshed – to wit, an interposition force along the ceasefire line, as well as along the Ukrainian-Russian ...
... more anti-Russian. But the overriding priority is to prevent a radical change in U.S. policy.
More likely than not, the Ukrainian leaders are acting on the assumption that any military actions under the present conditions are a low-risk affair. The Donbass self-defense forces are highly unlikely to launch major counter-offensives like they did near Ilovaisk or Debaltsevo. Therefore, Ukraine is free to test the strength of the DPR and LPR defenses and achieve small, if visible, successes like occupying demilitarized areas. Sabotage attacks against influential figures in the two republics also will go unanswered. The rebels will hardly ...
... now looks like the best option for both the United States and Russia.
A frozen conflict in Donbass is not what the European Union wants. Europe insists on full implementation of the Minsk accords. However, it needs to face up to the harsh realities. Donbass rebels want a confederal status within Ukraine, complete with a veto on the country’s potential NATO membership. Kiev wants to crush the rebellion, punish its leaders and activists, and end Russian interference in Ukraine. No compromise between the two seems possible. Minsk II is definitely ...
... Donetsk regions, also known as Donbass, are much more important for Ukraine’s economy. In 2012 the Donetsk region had the highest per capita GDP, €20,700, while the corresponding figure for Luhansk varied from €6,500 to €9,500
[7]
. Donbass’ share in Ukraine's GDP was 16% in 2013; the Donetsk region, with its 103 large enterprises outranking other regions in contribution to GDP terms, while the Luhansk region had
28 large enterprises
. Donbass accounted for 25.2% of Ukraine’s total exports ...
Despair reigns in the Donbass. The military activity with its resulting victims and heavy material losses will not change anything - a balance of power ... ... always been characterized as fraternal, now in this state? The conflict was provoked by the West's intention to "bind" Ukraine (without assuming any kind of responsibility), which was expressed by Kiev's signing of the EU Association Agreement. ...
