Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation...
... some believe that Russia could simply return to the European world and order that existed 15, 20 or even 30 years ago. In that European order, there was no conflict over Ukraine, no sharp Eurozone crisis, no migration crisis on the present scale, no Brexit, and no rise of right-wing populism. That world order had no transatlantic fault or split, no comparable economic dominance by China, no return to international protectionism, and no Arab Spring with its tragic consequences.
Bref
, that European order ...
... compromise.
That is, the U.S. will not agree to cease democratization (arguably it can't help itself) or settle for a new detente in Europe. Moscow will have to find a way to turn German leadership to its favor, thereby blunting any future U.S. policy of containment ... ... pressure. Russia will seek to ameliorate Germany, and repair that relationship. The way back into German graces lies through Ukraine, hence Russia has worked hard over the summer to restore its credibility in seeing the Minsk-2 ceasefire agreement implemented.
#5: The China factor
Russia's relationship with China will ironically mirror its previous interaction with the West, cycles of engagement ...
