Escalation signaling is a tremendously difficult task that allows for some flexibility but also raises the risks of further escalation
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has demonstrated an unprecedented use of missile capabilities and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by both militaries. While Ukraine’s capabilities present a significant military-technical challenge for Russia, the fact that they ...
As the world's two super-nuclear powers, the relations of Russia and the U.S. are inseparable from nuclear risk
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia and the United States have been engaged in an almost open nuclear game, but in different forms and with different objectives. Both Russia ...
... is possible only via compromise. In this sense, assessing the likelihood and content of negotiations should be coupled with an analysis of the real capabilities and intentions of the parties to defend their interests under the current conditions.
The Ukrainian crisis that has snowballed into an intense military-political conflict between Russia and the Western nations supporting Ukraine implies a clash of the political interests, whose significance is defined by the participants as vital and crucial, which sharply limits the likelihood of reaching any settlement. The conflict’s current ...
The cost of a conflict with Russia for the United States will be measured not only and not so much by support for Ukraine, but also by the enormous cost of containing the Russian-Chinese tandem
The aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is an indicator of the growing ...
... are higher than they were 60 years ago
Today, it’s come to be trendy to draw parallels between the current state of U.S.-Russian relations and the famous Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. All the more so, because we are on the cusp of the 60th anniversary ... ... made at the White House in the evening of October 20, having triggered the acute phase of the crisis.
Aleksey Arbatov:
The Ukrainian Crisis and Strategic Stability
Despite the obvious similarity between the two episodes of military and political stand-off ...
Russia has not done anything like mobilization in this century, and that using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine makes little sense for Vladimir Putin
Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey
Kortunov says Russia has not done ...
Working paper № 69 / 2022
Working paper № 69 / 2022
The working paper explores the factors that predetermined the Western switch from divergence to convergence in the 2020s along with the key features of the commenced consolidation within the ranks of the Collective West. Is current Western unity incidental or strategic? Is it transient or long-standing? How much do the interests of the major power centers of the Collective West diverge? How likely is this unity to extend to subsequent engagement...
While Xi Jinping may respect the legitimacy of Russia’s actions to protect its national interests and security in the face of external forces, he has a greater interest in having a bird’s eye view of China’s greatest costs of war
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States ...
On May 4, 2022, RIAC and The Harvard Negotiation Project held another expert discussion on the current state and dynamics of Russia-Ukraine conflict, the potential role of third countries in reaching a political settlement, and possible parameters of peace agreements
On May 4, 2022, RIAC and The Harvard Negotiation Project held another expert discussion on the current state ...
A new government in Berlin is always a new opportunity — not only for Germany itself, but also for its international partners, Russia including
I understand the fundamentals. Russia lost Germany back in 2014 or even earlier. Seventy-three years after the end of WW2 and twenty-eight years after the reunification, the new generation of Germans owes Russian nothing. After the Ukrainian crisis, no ‘business as usual’ is possible in any foreseeable future; Moscow and Berlin continue to sharply disagree on many critically important international matters. Germany is and will always be a disciplined member of NATO and that ...
