... Himself Into the ‘World’s Most Toxic Man’. World Politics Review, March 2, 2022 –
. Charles Grant. Can the West stay united on Ukraine – and what will China do? Centre for European Reform. March 30, 2022 –
. Luigi Scazzieri. Russia's assault on Ukraine and European security. Centre for European Reform, March 30, 2022 – ...
... some believe that Russia could simply return to the European world and order that existed 15, 20 or even 30 years ago. In that European order, there was no conflict over Ukraine, no sharp Eurozone crisis, no migration crisis on the present scale, no Brexit, and no rise of right-wing populism. That world order had no transatlantic fault or split, no comparable economic dominance by China, no return to international protectionism, and no Arab Spring with its tragic consequences.
, that European order ...
That is, the U.S. will not agree to cease democratization (arguably it can't help itself) or settle for a new detente in Europe. Moscow will have to find a way to turn German leadership to its favor, thereby blunting any future U.S. policy of containment ... ... pressure. Russia will seek to ameliorate Germany, and repair that relationship. The way back into German graces lies through Ukraine, hence Russia has worked hard over the summer to restore its credibility in seeing the Minsk-2 ceasefire agreement implemented.
#5: The China factor
Russia's relationship with China will ironically mirror its previous interaction with the West, cycles of engagement ...