... political choice China has faced. To clarify, what I mean by this is that China has specific political options for dealing with Moscow in difficult situations, rather than new strategic goals regarding overall China-Russia relations.
Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China is being subjected to unprecedented political pressure from the US regarding its relations with Russia. Such pressure is different from its previous policy of “driving a wedge” between China and Russia, which the US conducted prior to the Russia–Ukraine ...
... respects, from economically and politically to technologically and militarily.
Even before the outbreak of the
“hybrid war,”
China had overtaken Germany not only as Russia’s principal trading partner, but also as the leading exporter of machinery and ... ... strategic region. The fact that the vast majority of non-Western countries refused to condemn Russia for what it is doing in Ukraine – many of them despite strong US pressure – is most encouraging for Moscow. In the sense that those who are not against ...
... has demonstrated that the West is not able to
impose sanctions
on a major economy without damaging its own stability. The war has also shown the effectiveness of the Russian nuclear deterrent, making even a limited Western intervention unthinkable.
China will be the main beneficiary of the Ukraine crisis. But this is not reflected in China’s
political rhetoric
which has been carefully calculated to avoid any major fallout with the European Union and other developed countries, while also maintaining close cooperation with Russia.
The ...
... re-emergence of the unipolar moment—the remaining opposition to this arrangement by Beijing notwithstanding. Although Ukraine might be unfinished business for Mr Putin, Russia’s status is itself unfinished business for many in the West. Triumph for Ukraine might lead to a tamed and domesticated Russia. A quiet Russia would allow the West to cope more easily with China, which would be the only major obstacle to liberal hegemony and the long-awaited “end of history”.
If the conflict results with an imperfect but mutually acceptable settlement, the final outcome of the collision between the Russian and the Ukrainian ...
Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation...
... calculation was to create a safe Western flank to compete more effectively In the Asian world of tomorrow».
You declared that China, not Russia, will emerge as the victor in this war. What did you mean?
«We will be victorious because Russians always are ... ... time being. But we are ready to sacrifice in order to build a more viable and fair international system. We are talking about Ukraine, but we really want to build a different international system than the one that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet ...
... even though it had just emerged triumphant after the anti-Japanese war and the prolonged Civil war. Mao’s son, a fighter pilot, died in the Korean War.
That was a threat on China’s border, and it reacted accordingly, much as Russia is doing now in Ukraine. This does not mean that China should ever consider intervening in the same manner. However, the Western power-projection in the Ukraine conflict does pose a threat, albeit indirect, to China’s interests and—over the medium and long term—to China as such. This means that ...
... balance of losses and gains of key participants, as well as global players. Such a balance has yet to be struck for Russia and Ukraine. Hostilities continue and a political settlement has not been reached, which means that it is still difficult to say to ... ... and in terms of enormous damage to the economy. The contours of the balance for global and regional players—the EU, the US, China, Japan, Iran and others are more clearly visible.
The European Union bears the most serious losses and costs. They are associated ...
... have threatened Moscow with weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) at its Western patrons’ behest. If Russia didn’t submit, a conventional invasion of the country could have been attempted and/or it could have been threatened with a WMD attack from Ukraine. Obviously, the situation that Russia be placed wasn’t ideal, hence why it chose to act.
Returning to the lead-in question of this analysis, namely why the U.S. prioritized containing Russia instead of China, it seems as though America’s grand strategic calculus was that it would be much easier to do the first at this moment in time than the second, since the relevant leverage had already been established in Europe—unlike in Asia, where the U.S....
... operation” in Ukraine. This level of coordination gives Kremlin the justified confidence that “the World is big” and no sanctions can tip Russia. We already see the contours of the West deeply humiliated and Russia succeeding with it objectives in Ukraine. Like Russia in Europe, China has during the past decades built up the necessary power to act in East Asia, and the decision to resolve the Taiwan issue in a very foreseeable future is undoubtedly already made in Beijing. That will deal the final devastating blow to the fiction ...
