... country’s national interests which contradict other states. Regarding the civil war in Libya, security will aggravate in the country, mainly in Tripoli, unless an agreement is reached among militant groups in addition to Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, the USA and Russia. The impeachment process of US President Donald Trump and the US role in the MENA region would determine the future of conflicts in many countries starting from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and the future government in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, Turkey and Iran. It is also expected that many MENA capitals will witness protests that would change the balance of power in the region. The outlook of the MENA in 2020 reveals ...
... while Bashar al-Assad remains in power.
On the other hand, Russia and Iran are staying firmly behind Assad. They are not going to withdraw their armies, perhaps even after Damascus restores the unity of the country and the US and Turkish troops leave Syria.
At the same time, two great powers — Russia and the USA — and two regional powers — Turkey and Iran — are unlikely to start a local or global war to gain control over whole Syria. In this situation, there are two exits.
Ivan Timofeev:
US Sanctions Against Turkey: Zero Escalation
A) External players ...
... The Russian Federation has learned from this. When it travels abroad, it goes for security buffers as in Ukraine, status as in Syria and mostly money elsewhere. There is no grand design, but a lot of opportunity-seeking, based on the merits of each potential ... ...
The choice to weaponize internet technologies to influence other countries’ domestic politics, for instance, has provoked accusations from such important partners as Germany and France but failed to advance Russia’s political goals. Regarding elections ...
...
accusing
the Iranian government and its leader, Hassan Rouhani. Within the context of increasing regional instability, constant accusations of supporting and arming terrorists and the unwillingness of the United States to ease the burden of sanctions, the Iranian ... ... member of NATO. The country disrespected international norms and laws and
initiated
active hostilities on the northern border of Syria. Turkey’s explicit violations were not shackled completely, but with the latest
engagement
of U.S. and Russia, they were ...
... organic but also civilizational instinct of self-preservation), this is the conflictual model that we will see developing.
[i]
As in the case of the statement of the former Air Force Colonel and CNN military analyst C. Leighton, according to whom the Syrian conflict exceeds exponentially the one in Vietnam, evidently placing the two military crises on the same scale of intensity.
[ii]
Ibid.
[iii]
It was the epoch (on the rhetorical level, but today on the implementation level, USA willy-nilly) of
America in retreat
[cf. B. Stephens,
America in Retreat. The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder
, Sentinel Books, 2014].
[iv]
The geopolitical duplicity of the US according to Carlo Santoro [cfr. C. M. Santoro,
La perla ...
... component, which is harder to counter. We know that ISIS has already chosen a new leader, and as often happens, when you eliminate the head, the person that comes after is usually even more of a risk. The main priority now is to resolve the issue for thousands of ISIS fighters and affiliates, as well as wives and children who are in prison camps in North-East Syria and Iraq. This is another domain where international cooperation will be necessary to ensure that the instability in these regions do not lead to an ISIS 2.0.
It is in this context that international actors need to learn the lesson of Iraq. Any ...
“Sanction paradox”: restrictions against allies are more effective than restrictions against rivals. So far, this paradox is working with respect to Turkey
The US withdrawal of military support for the Syrian Kurds and the subsequent operation of the Turkish army have exacerbated relations between Ankara and Washington. As one of the deterrence measures, the US authorities imposed sanctions against three Turkish ministers and two ministries by including ...
Media fail to recognize that the area between Ras Al Ain and Tal Abyad is almost entirely Arab and try to prove that a demographic change is taking place
US President Donald Trump took several decisions on the Syria conflict recently, which triggered political and media pressure on him. Most criticism either attempted to score political and media points against Trump or stemmed from motives that have nothing to do with Syria. The Syria crisis embodied a good ...
... drafting and approval of a new Syrian constitution to be followed by UN-supervised “free and fair” elections.
The West hopes to use these political terms as a tool to pressure Damascus and its allies. Apart from political considerations, the refusal to cooperate directly with the Syrian government is justified by citing the need to implement administrative reforms and modify property and investment laws. Western experts believe that directing international economic aid through official channels to the country’s militarized economy ...
... aggravation with the United States, could open a “second front” on the northern border of Israel taking advantage of the increased military potential of Hezbollah on its southern border.
Thus, the initiative of Israel to organize a new format for Syria in Jerusalem was put forward at the time when the erroneous estimations could lead to an exchange of blows with the escalation into an armed confrontation of a regional scale. Moreover, on the eve of the parliamentary elections Israel does not want to be drawn ...
