Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
The main task for Russia is to avoid excessive overexertion and, at the same time, not get bogged down in a costly confrontation, maintaining and ... ... of escalation is coming. In the near future, we can expect the development of the situation according to one of the following scenarios.
The first scenario is “War”. Russia in this scenario will proceed from several premises.
Igor Ivanov:
Is War Inevitable?...
... science of international relations can be thought of as political economy under conditions of anarchy.
Ivan Timofeev:
War Between Russia and Ukraine: A Basic Scenario?
In this case, the question arises: what are the modern “currency” or “currencies” ... ... higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under ...
... deconfliction mechanisms, and international actors’ difficulties in establishing rapid conflict prevention measures provides US-Iran tensions a potential to easily evolve into a military engagement. What would be the implications of such a scenario for Russia? Will the fallout of a US-Iran war in the Middle East push Russia to rush in with a more active mediation effort? Or will Russia prefer to erode US power projection through military assistance to Iran?
This paper attempts to explore the cost-benefit ...
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Executive Summary
— The report asesses the risks of sanctions against Russia over the year.
— By 2020, the use of sanctions against Russia had gained much more stability compared to previous years. The damage caused by the new restrictive measures can be considered limited. The key issue is whether the situation in the ...
How can Moscow respond to a possible US strike on Syria?
The aggravation of rivalry between Russia and the West in the past few months is raising the urgent question of a possible further escalation of tensions and its ... ... sanctions but Brussels carefully avoided any escalation of sanctions for “promoting propaganda and undermining democracy,” an accusation that is hard to verify but easy to turn into a conflict-prone and provocative form. We might dislike Robert Mueller’s ...
The U.S.-Russia conflict is like a teenage fight. When should we stop the fight with no winners?... ... collapse similar to the one that took place in 1991, as not even the most quixotic crusaders against the “Russian threat” expect such a scenario to unfold. But rather... ... capabilities and its permanent seat on the UN Security Council intact.
Either of these scenarios would be a nightmare for U.S. foreign and military policy. And it is difficult...
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
The Ukrainian crisis presents the most serious ... ... ethnic conflicts it gave rise to in the Balkans. What we are witnessing is the combination of the largest confrontation between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War, growing animosities between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea and south-eastern ...
