... institutionalization of the quadrilateral QUAD security dialogue, the grandiose Summit of Democracies hosted by Washington (all seen last year), not to mention an activization of joint efforts in the more traditional formats of interaction between the leading Western powers, such as NATO summits and G7 tops.
Andrey Kortunov:
NATO’s Cheek by Russia’s Jowl
If we refer to the first months of 2020 as a starting point, when the coronavirus pandemic suddenly awakened the most archaic reflexes of national egoism in the West, at some point questioning common values of the Euro-Atlantic, we should ...
... the encounter are not fair. Russia is bigger, wealthier and militarily more powerful than Ukraine is. On the other hand, Ukraine enjoys international sympathy and almost unlimited defensive, economic, humanitarian and intelligence assistance from the West. Russia can rely only on itself and is exposed to the pressure of increasingly painful sanctions.
Many Russian experts are used to saying that the massive Western military and other support is the only reason why Ukraine has not yet crumbled or surrendered....
... implementation of the Minsk Agreements, and the removal of economic sanctions on Russia. By rapidly reaching this kind of agreement, countless lives will be saved and the world will be made vastly safer.
How do you see exit strategy from the current West-Russia stalemate over Ukraine and what are the prospects for de-escalating the quite dangerous situation that we are currently in?
I hope that rationality prevails on all sides. This war is a lose-lose proposition for the entire world, and a very dangerous ...
Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive ...
On May 4, 2022, the European Leadership Network (ELN) held an expert meeting focusing on the issues of strategic stability in the context of an acute conflict between Russia and the West.
On May 4, 2022, the European Leadership Network (ELN) held an expert meeting focusing on the issues of strategic stability in the context of an acute conflict between Russia and the West.
Various aspects of strategic stability were discussed, ...
For the West, the battle for Ukraine has become the battle for Russia. The battle for Russia is only the first phase of the battle against China
For the West, Russia’s actions in Ukraine have revealed and confirmed the true face of Russia and its leadership. For much of the global East and South, the West’s policy from the mid-1990s right up to its gross overreaction to the situation in Ukraine was a reminder ...
... also has good relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia which are uneasy about the solidity of American support for their type of government. This leaves plenty of room for Russia.
I would like to add that Russia has perhaps overestimated her needs for the West. And Russia may have overlooked, that in GDP, Russia is not a very big country. Countries like the UK with a big GDP needs trading partners with big GDP, which limits the UK’s options for significant trading partners to just three in the World—EU, U.S....
... ‘counter-bloc’) but also to ‘structure’. The strength of the West is the building of multiple structures of coordination and overlap. The Post-Soviet Russia has so far failed to keep pace or even compete. That is its Achilles’ heel.
Russian Grand Strategy
Russia’s Western dream is currently taking the shape of a delusion or a nightmare. Russia will have to accept the fact that the Western option has receded for a more or less prolonged period. It will have to accept that its own Western character derives from its ...
... “new European reality” may become in the years, let alone for decades, to come. This depends on the final outcome of the Russian military operation, the nature and results of Ukraine’s forthcoming “political transit”, the stability of the West’s anti-Russian unity, the general dynamics of the balance of power, the severity of common problems and many other factors. However, some preliminary assumptions can already be made.
1. Russia has inadvertently recaptured China’s seemingly entrenched role ...
... relations with the U.S. are still at the forefront of strategic thinking in both Moscow and Beijing. This also creates opportunities for Western assurances to influence the external and internal security perceptions of both powers. The emergence of a Sino-Russian counterweight to the West, or—in a broader sense—the return to fixed ideological blocks and battle lines in world politics, is not an unavoidable trend. In fact, it is likely to be highly responsive to Western policy choices, and should justify more attention to Chinese ...
