...
The Antithesis matrix is not a predictor of where revolutions will happen. It is a reminder that societies embedded with multiple forms of social media have the potential to facilitate protest and civil disobedience if other factors on the ground warrant such behavior. It is also a reminder that those regimes where it is likely to have those motivating factors in place should not feel too overconfident in their ability to constrain or co-opt that social media-inspired mobilization: for the matrix ...
... Western media/academic coverage analyzing or considering legitimate Russian interests in long-term Ukrainian political affairs. Those responsible for leading the Maidan revolution were equally blind or presumptuous: while they are quick to lay blame on Russia now, it is obvious going back two months that they were completely caught unaware and off-guard that anyone on the outside would have words or actions for their behavior other than simple congratulatory phone calls. Obviously, this has proven to be a rather large mistake.
A second aspect to play out from the Maidan revolution ...
The debate over the applicability or non-applicability of international law to cyber war and the need for a cyber-specific international treaty might be irrelevant. Both camps, pro and con, argue about the need for cyber war to have the Law of Armed Conflict or some new international legal project properly cover the cyber domain. Both ...
... the vacuum of authoritarian regime change where radical Islam already exists. While the West has been comfortable viewing the Arab Spring as a groundswell of grassroots democratic ideals and sought to actively encourage and support its development, Russia has warily seen it as a potential ‘Great Islamist Revolution.’ Keeping in mind the new regimes in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and Libya are not exactly blossoming with democratic institutions and stability and the Russian skepticism about Arab Spring ...
... isn’t about how horrible it was for Russia to ‘annex’ Crimea (with Crimean consent) and do it basically without any violence. What is most horrible to these rather dull thinkers still stuck in and/or pining for the return of a Cold War environment full of purpose and dire circumstances is that they won’t get the chance to beat Russia back or deliver a diplomatic defeat of the same intensity that they feel they just received themselves. Thus, this situation CANNOT be just about Crimea. Russia MUST NOT be satisfied with this as the end game. There simply MUST be another shoe ...
... it clear in subtle terms that he doesn’t really care who governs Ukraine as long as positive normalized relations with Russia continue (call it the Syrian Assad Gambit, if you will). He favored Yanukovych over Maidan leaders in Kiev because his ... ... less relevant that Tymoshenko felt empowered to speak that way and formulate her thoughts in such barbaric and base terms. Beware the sheep with fangs, Ukraine. In the end the blood it spills might just be your own and for no good reason other than to ...
... peace and stability. Any half-measured, ill-conceived attempts to retake Crimea would be counter-productive and potentially dangerous.
Why the United States should be disappointed: Russia outplayed it. Not only did the US not anticipate the initial Russian maneuvers into Crimea, subsequent ‘threats’ and ‘warnings’ from American authorities have not so much fallen on deaf ears as amused ones: when a Presidential aide to Vladimir Putin reacts to sanctions by saying the only thing relevant to him about America is the deceased iconic rapper Tupac Shakur,...
... the press, has now turned its journalistic microscope on Crimea. While Western journalists as a whole tend to be a conscientious lot, simply pursuing an interesting story and often putting themselves in harm’s way in order to get it, the Cold War residue that remains between the United States and Russia has a tendency to put a grimy film over more than just political actors. It often affects the way in which stories are told, the lens through which ‘impartial observers’ focus their attention. Unfortunately, this happens usually at ...
... War or desperately grasping at whatever remnants of old Soviet power it used to have. No, I’m afraid Russia doesn’t listen to America because of the unfortunate tendency by the US to act like a geopolitical prom queen: In the past it has warned Russia about how it acted with Chechnya, China, Venezuela, Iran, and Syria, but ultimately did nothing. It is now warning Russia that ‘there will be costs’ if it acts inappropriately in Crimea and onward with greater Ukraine. One might forgive ...