... shipments under the deal reached truly vulnerable nations is being widely disputed. Another fact, that if it were not for the sanctions Russia could cover a significant part of food shortages, is being hushed up. All the while our readiness to immediately send up ... ... countries is being criticized as “too little, too late.”
Meanwhile, the West continues to call the
special operation
in Ukraine—which they themselves provoked—the main source of the multiple crises in the global economy. They directly link the ...
... and Road Initiative and serves as part of the Eurasian transportation corridor. China has major projects and investments in Ukraine. When Moscow and Kyiv are locked in a state of large-scale military conflict, it is difficult for Beijing to balance between the two countries.
On the one hand, the new US and European large-scale economic sanctions imposed on Russia after the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict have opened more opportunities for developing China–Russia economic ...
... always more moderate. Though Beijing has adopted an official “neutral” position on the Ukrainian issue, there should be no doubt, that Beijing has been deeply involved and consulted in Moscow’s planning of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. This level of coordination gives Kremlin the justified confidence that “the World is big” and no sanctions can tip Russia. We already see the contours of the West deeply humiliated and Russia succeeding with it objectives in Ukraine. Like Russia in Europe, China has during the past decades built up the necessary power to act in East Asia, and the decision to resolve ...
... costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another Russophobic ... ... the media, are on Kiev’s side. And we are not talking exclusively about Western countries here.
Implication 4.
Unprecedented sanctions against Russia. All the bravado concerning the sanctions and statements claiming that that they are barely affecting ...
... military-technical cooperation with its partners across the CSTO. The West has established various formats and mechanisms of sanctions pressure, boosting NATO’s eastern flank and increasing policy coordination both within the Alliance and within the European Union as well as military-technical assistance to Ukraine, while consistently attacking Russia in a variety of international settings ranging from the UN General Assembly to OSCE and the Council of Europe ministerials....
... future Sino-Russian cooperation has
run rampant
. Much of this has to do with the current crisis over Ukraine, with commentaries warning that Chinese backing could embolden Russia into military action by shielding it from the consequences of Western sanctions, thus
removing
a powerful deterrent. Others have warned against a further spillover, arguing that a U.S.-Russian confrontation over Ukraine might even
encourage
China to pursue military reunification with Taiwan. Such extreme scenarios are unlikely to materialize, but the fact that they are being raised at all makes it necessary to analyze the interests, shared visions, but also ...
Andrey Kurtunov from the Russian International Affairs Council discusses Russia-Ukraine tensions and how concerned the Kremlin might be about possible Western sanctions, which have been threatened in case of an attack on Ukraine
Andrey Kurtunov from the Russian International Affairs Council discusses Russia-Ukraine tensions and how concerned the Kremlin might be about possible Western sanctions, which have ...
... focused restrictions would be applied to imports and exports of oil and gas. The cumulative damage to the Russian economy would be colossal in scale.
Fifth, controlling Ukraine, even its eastern part, could be problematic. Taking into account the Western sanctions blockade, any transactions with the territories of Ukraine under Russian control would be impossible. Russia would have to take on a huge territory. The big question is whether the Russian market, in the grip of new sanctions, would be able to compensate for the damage to the Ukrainian territories under Russian control....
... loss of control over the situation, should the symbolic whipping turn into a real conflict.
In the end, full-scale military operations in Donbass in the near future are not the baseline scenario. Russia is a strong adversary; the risk of big losses for Ukraine are great. Accordingly, it is hardly worth considering a scenario of a sharp tightening of sanctions against Russia. No radical aggravation—no radical sanctions.
At the same time, politics likes surprises. Erroneous assessments, the personal ambitions of leaders, the peculiarities of group decision-making with their "shift to risk", random incidents ...
... and conflict in Donbass, the U.S. elections and the alleged meddling, the developments in the Middle East, etc.
— Regarding Ukraine, the crisis has noticeably stabilized. However, we should not expect any significant breakthroughs in terms of compliance ... ... the Minsk Agreements in the coming year. The stabilization of the situation in Donbass significantly decreases the risk of new sanctions, yet this improvement will not result in the proportionate lifting of current restrictions.
— The problem of Russia’s alleged electoral meddling is likely to exacerbate in view of the upcoming 2020 presidential elections in the United ...
