... growth being driven by China. LUKoil sees that for Russia this is not good news as it is yet to complete any big gas deals with China, while its traditional European market is forecasted to persist in being difficult. Although European production will actually ... ... suppliers enter the market (e.g. Qatar). By 2020 the market will need an extra 50 bcm on top of the existing contracts as certain long-term contracts end, but supply will increase by 250 bcm in essence flooding the market and leading to old contracts to be ...
... monde tremblera"
Napoleon Bonaparte
The awakening of this old sleeping giant, or more accurately its re-awakening, has led much ink to be spilled and many keys to be worn-down. For many, this phenomenon was of great interest naturally due to China’s huge size and its equally large potential; especially, in contrast to the economically and politically stagnating West. However, for Russia, this re-emergence plays an exceptional role which stirs much uncertainty and mistrust, as once this ...
... question and answer session is outlined with Dr. Tatiana Mitrova, whereas in the subsequent second post, coming later, we look at China-Russia.
Europe-Russia ‘Special Deal Severed’:
In normal day-to-day life Europe has a stable and diversified ... ... Russia, this is especially a major issue as all the loans for developing new fields and constructing new pipes are done via long-term contracts. This is vital for Gazprom, as the lending banks absolutely adore long-term contracts, especially if they ...
... diversity, Russia will never have a monolithic identity or single outlook. As the global centre of gravity shifts from the European Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, Moscow is likely to stop looking West and instead go East – as soaring trade levels with China already foreshadow.
However, Russia remains a European power – part of Europe’s non-West alongside Turkey and Ukraine. Indeed, the country is anchored culturally and politically in the wider Europe, not in Asia. The problem is that ...
... Masaryk University. Their recent article evaluates the difference between policy ambitions shown by Russia and the official “Energy Strategy to 2030” (ES-2030) publication; released in 2009. M. Mareš and M. Laryš argue that China’s rise is creating a great opportunity for Russia as an extra energy market, but at the same time, current conditions could quickly alter into economic as well as political risks. Both countries want to make sure that their interests prevail,...
... unable to play-off Europe against China, due to the latters pressure. Russia hoped to supply both markets with its European gas fields, thus making its customers compete against each other (See: Reuters). However, on the brightside Gazprom agreed with China in regards to long-term contracts, thus allowing it to develop the riskier fields as export was more guaranteed. At first, I was sceptical about the deal due to the lack of a solid price and as talks with China (depending on where one starts) stretch 45 years - making ...
... some years in Central Asia, in particularly in Tajikistan, due to the civil war there and the fact that Russia was acting as a peacekeeping force. So its overall military interest is to continuously have a foothold in the region. However, the role of China in the region, the American war in Afghanistan since 2001 and the European Union which has been gaining an interest there since 2006-2007 in an attempt to exploit Central Asia’s need to diversify its energy exports – have impacted upon ...
... consumers. But, recently Europe has shifted from shrewd trade to the reengineering of the energy sector, which does not account for industry realities or Russian and peculiarly even its own interests as it is undermining its own energy security.
Long-Term Contracts a No-No:
An area of contention stimulating uncertainty is the debate amid long-term contracts and hub trading which is set to be introduced across Europe. An official justification is that Europe feels that gas is overpriced and ...
... aiming to agree 10 year long contracts with the Middle East, aside from this being a double-standard as it tends to avoid Russian long-term contracts by saying short-term hub trading without a fixed price is the future, the issue remains that this is not a ... ... for the whole sector. Krutikhin says the Eastern Expansion Project needs particular attention; for instance in respect to gas, China opposes paying over $290 per 1000 cubic meters, which is $110 cheaper per measure in contrast to the European consumers,...
