Policy Brief #47 / 2023
Policy Brief #47 / 2023
The Middle East has been clearly showing signs that is it changing. It would not be an overstatement to say that a lot of what is happening now would have been unthinkable just a couple of years ago.
The greatest of these changes is the China-mediated rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given that these countries are regional “centers of power”, their new and improved relations may help reduce regional...
... operations in Syria against the Kurdish left-wing groups, Russia tried primarily to protect the interests of its ally in Damascus and to prevent new violations of Syria’s sovereignty by offering the Assad regime various forms of relations with the Syrian Kurds and their integration into the Syrian state structures. However, this process has never advanced.
After the Istanbul attack, it will probably be much more difficult for Moscow, as well as Washington, to keep Ankara from another invasion of northeastern ...
RIAC and IRAS Working Paper #59/2020
RIAC and the Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies Working Paper #59/2020
This paper aims to analyze the pivotal points of the Middle Eastern crises and to which extent the interests of Moscow and Tehran overlap or contradict each other. Some of the key issues of the political situation in the region were assessed, such as the situation in Idlib, the prospects for a political process in Syria, Israel’s role in the region’s future, the path to Syria’s reconstruction...
Confusion and lack of definition have made US relations with the Kurds a challenge to perceive and discuss
International relations have been undergoing a gradual but sustained transformation over the last few decades. For example, the 2014-2017
peshmerga
-Islamic State (IS) war, while a case of a small, asymmetric ...
... carry out a military operation to restore sovereignty and even regain control over the rich oil fields of Kirkuk. This loss for Kurds – meaning a failure of the referendum – revealed a rift between the two major forces of Iraqi Kurdistan: the Barzani ... ... forces.
It was more than three months before the new parliament met in early September 2018. The political process stalled as thousands of people took to the streets for rallies and demonstrations, with the biggest protests
taking place
in Basra. The political ...
... entity that does not have any demographic or geographical components within the territories of the Syrian Republic? In fact, the Kurdish population in Syria does not exceed six percent. The UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura revealed that Kurds represent only five percent of the Syrian population. Besides, Kurds live in geographical areas that are not interconnected and do not constitute a majority in their places of residence. It is the so-called “war against ISIS” that granted them ...
... inserted itself between the Syrian military and the Turkish observation post. Turkey might find a way out of the situation by withdrawing its observation post from Murak and launching a new operation in the north of Syria against the U.S.-supported Kurds. Given the situation, it is desirable for Russia to find a way of advancing the dialogue between Damascus and the Kurds.
While Ankara supported the Syrian opposition, it undertook under the Sochi agreements to fight terrorism in Idlib and facilitate ...
... dealings with the Syrian government. “Of course, we’d like to avoid casualties. But the Turkish operation could, perhaps, help us settle some issues,” a senior Russian diplomat told Al-Monitor on the basis of anonymity. “If the Turks attack the Kurds, this may make the latter more flexible in terms of reaching an agreement with Damascus.”
Bye-bye, USA
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov voiced Moscow's view of the desired outcome shortly after US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of US forces from Syria last December. “The weapons, the territories and the military facilities ...
....S. support for the Syrian Kurdish polity and long-term plans to retain its own limited military presence in northern Syria are already straining relations between Ankara and Washington. Reluctance to make a compromise on the issue of PYD-led Syrian Kurds may prompt Turkey to seriously consider
military and political cooperation
with Iran in Syria and Iraq.
Yuri Barmin:
The Syrian Congress in Sochi: Too Much Too Soon
However, it is related political issues that may strain relations between the ...
... it will no more deliver armaments – this is a de-escalatory step towards Russia and seemingly towards admitting that the Kurdish region will eventually depend on Damascus in three realms: military sphere, energy and external policy.
Russia and the USA are both doing their homework: Russia persuades Al-Assad to sit to the negotiating table with the Kurds (and there is a chance that during talks in Sochi Putin has convinced Al-Assad in the need for decentralizing the Syrian state) while the American side presses the allying Kurds to discuss the future statecraft with Damascus. If Assad and the Kurds ...