Predicting critical events, an institutional challenge.

... for the Assad regime in Syria. Haaretz and Al Monitor reported that as far back as 2011, while Hillary Clinton was president Barack Obama’s secretary of state, Kochavi met with senior White House officials and others to discuss the Syria situation and, among other issues, Iran’s nuclear program. During these meetings, the reporting indicates that Kochavi announced that Israel had made a complete turnabout on Syria to wit that Assad was now vulnerable and not likely to hold power. The Haaretz ...