... precise, agreed, and approved (!) definitions for terminology and broader concepts related to nuclear weapons policy and strategy: deterrence, strategic stability etc. The latter process may start as a Track II discussion.
Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky:
INF Treaty: More than Just an Agreement
The INF is a tougher topic. Both countries have officially accused each other of breaching the treaty, while denying the accusations of the other side. The US has already codified its accusations which, for example, serve as the justification for sanctions against enterprises involved in the production of 9M729 cruise missiles. Moreover, the inspection system outlined in the ...
... indirectly confirmed by the fact that no more statements of the kind were issued as the relationship between the two countries deteriorated further [
1
].
As for the United States, the first public statements indicating Washington’s intention to revise the INF Treaty were made in 2014, with accusations of breaching of the Treaty levelled against Russia. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, there were calls for the United States to withdraw from the agreement. Interestingly, these discussions have continued against ...
The simulation has shown that a sudden first strike by the United States on Russia would take out up to 86 per cent of Russia’s SNFs in “delivery systems” and 87 per cent in “explosive tonnage”.
The development of strategic nuclear forces (SNF) is becoming an increasingly relevant topic in light of the latest United States Nuclear Posture Review and other policy papers, as well as Russia’s announcement regarding the development of new nuclear delivery vehicles. China is also developing its own...
Reaffirming that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, the United States and Russia could agree to specific steps at Helsinki to reduce nuclear risks
Presidents Trump and Putin will finally meet next week in Helsinki for a bilateral summit. Throughout the Cold War, summits between US and Soviet leaders were overwhelmingly welcomed in both countries and the world as an opportunity to reduce tensions. After the Cold War, these meetings became routine. Today, the scheduling of the...
... half-century old nonproliferation regime, Presidents Trump and Putin will have to offer some hope that Washington and Moscow take their own responsibilities to reduce and disarm under the treaty seriously.
The wars in Syria and Ukraine have cost hundreds of thousands of lives, and displaced millions of people across the Middle East, Europe and beyond. Washington and Moscow each control resources and levers of influence vital for managing and ultimately resolving these conflicts. Although officials have sought ...
... For now, the agenda should be narrow, prioritizing three key issues: the preservation of the INF Treaty, the prolongation of the New START treaty, and the prevention of dangerous military accidents.
SAVING THE ARMS-CONTROL SAFETY NET
At present, the INF Treaty is in danger of collapsing because of accusations of violation on both sides. Addressing these accusations is the first step to ensuring that the treaty continues.
Moscow claims that Washington committed three violations of the treaty. First, it accuses the United States of using of medium-range ...
... on exercises) on the military buildup taking place in Central Europe. Rather than the bobbing and weaving currently underway, the two sides need to stare hard at reality and decide whether failure is in either’s interest. Thus, for example, if the INF treaty is lost, so will be the future of strategic nuclear arms control. Renewal of New START in 2021 becomes a fading thought, but, even if not, having for seven years ceased considering what comes after START, when New START, the last remaining ...
... medium- and intermediate-range nuclear-armed missiles by 1991 — the first time ever that an entire class of nuclear weapons has been
eliminated
. In July 2014, the US State Department officially
alleged
that the Russian Federation was violating the INF Treaty by conducting flight tests of a ground-launched cruise missile with a range that is prohibited by the treaty. Since then, Russia has repeatedly denied the accusations, and has accused the United States of deploying defense systems in Romania and Poland which could potentially be used to deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of up to 2,500 km. Indeed, in May 2016, the United States placed into operation ...
... threats to US interests. This situation resulted from the international activity of “revisionist powers”: Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. The document repeatedly mentions this “revisionism”, so it is worth listing the nuclear-related accusations Washington is levelling against Russia.
The NPR accuses Russia of three main “sins”:
breaching the INF Treaty by testing and deploying a long-range ground-based cruise missile;
pursuing a “escalate-to-deescalate” strategy. This strategy implies delivering a limited tactical nuclear strike should the threat of losing a conventional conflict become ...
... Wednesday in comments on Russian-American relations.
"Our priority task is not to allow the Russian-American arms control regime break up completely. The most important task for today is to preserve the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), extend the New START treaty. Of course, this is also cooperation of Russia and the US on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, as well as efforts not to let the nuclear deal with Iran fail and to reduce tensions on the Korean peninsula to ...
