Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
... thought of as political economy under conditions of anarchy.
Ivan Timofeev:
War Between Russia and Ukraine: A Basic Scenario?
In this case, the question arises: what are the... ... two other players stand out, whose “currency baskets” are more asymmetric. The European Union has a whole range of soft currencies. But in the segment of hard assets... ... In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems...
Russia and the EU currently seem to be nowhere near even embarking on a path towards ... ... eminent experts from different places in Russia and 14 EU member states,
published
four scenarios for the future of EU-Russia relations: A “Cold Partnership” in a multipolar... ... rationale and opens a window of opportunity for more constructive engagement with the European Union, including on the Donbas conflict. Both sides are able to steer their...
EUREN Report 2
EUREN
Report 2
EUREN members believe that the EU and Russia will not be able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the coming decade. But the two sides can come to a pragmatic ... ... Europe. This is the main finding of the EUREN scenario-building process, conducted between February and September 2020. Four scenarios were developed:
1. A "
Cold Partnership
" in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return ...
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Executive Summary
— The report asesses the risks of sanctions against Russia over the year.
— By 2020, the use of sanctions against Russia had gained much more stability compared to previous years. The damage caused by the new restrictive measures can be considered limited. The key issue is whether the situation in the ...
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
An international ...
... and relying on significant successes in implementing socioeconomic reforms, Ukraine will more insistently demand a speedy integration into the bodies of NATO and the European Union. Although Ukraine is unlikely to become a full member of either the European Union or NATO in the foreseeable future, cooperation with these organizations will become intense and multifaceted.
Andrey Kortunov:
Europe and Russia: Four Scenarios for the New Cycle
If this scenario materializes, then for Russian authorities, Ukraine will become not merely a major nuisance, but a fundamental existential challenge. The prospect of Ukraine inevitably joining NATO entails the intensive militarization ...
... current crisis, international institutions are successfully reformed and reenergized, if globalization is back with vengeance, the European Union and Russia will be pushed to a closer cooperation with each other in various fields. Of course, there might be a number of ‘black ... ... natural disaster to a new generation of international terrorism.
The odds are that the choice between the four above-mentioned scenarios will not be clear and finite. More likely, each of the sides will try to combine elements of various scenarios to serve ...
... military, mostly from the EU member countries.
Alexey Gromyko, RIAC member and Director of the RAS Institute of Europe, and Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, took part in the work of the Dahrendorf Symposium and addressed the meeting.
Programme
European Union in the World 2025 – Scenarios for External Relations
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
The ... ... Balkans. What we are witnessing is the combination of the largest confrontation between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War, growing animosities between Russia... ... statehood. Ukraine is the nexus where the interests of such key players as Russia, the European Union and the United States have clashed, making this purely domestic crisis...
