... sanctions. In part, they will be offset by deepening trade ties with Russia. But due to the contraction of the Russian market, the effect of such a partnership may be lower than expected. In addition, the structure of relations between the Republic of Belarus and the EU differ from similar relations with Russia.
Dmitry Razumovsky:
What Could Take BRICS Forward?
The Republic of Moldova is a “loser” in this crisis. The country has received a large number of refugees from Ukraine. Brussels will provide financial assistance to Moldova to work with refugees....
... demonstrative massive shipments to Ukraine of arms from the US, UK, Canada and other countries. By February 2022 this campaign took grotesque forms. Increasingly it looked as a propaganda of war.
Meanwhile Moscow was concentrating troops in the European part of Russia, in the Western and Southern military districts and in Belarus. In the world history to support diplomacy or national interests with a show of force is a common tool. Suffice to say that the US is fond of threatening other countries with its military might, for example in the Persian Gulf or in the Taiwan ...
... companies for Belarusian exports. Minsk faced sectoral sanctio
ns against its financial sector, the tobacco industry, oil refining and potash production.
All these restrictions have increased as a result of the "migration crisis" on the Polish-Belarusian border.
The key intrigue of the coming year is the situation around Ukraine. At present, the scenario of an open
military clash between Russia and Ukraine
is the only real factor that can lead to a radical increase in the quantity and quality of sanctions pressure on Russia. In the event of a war, the Iranian model will most likely be used against Russia: a phased ban on the purchase ...
... in Belarus, and not on the terms of the current government.
Strengthening ties with Russia would be a logical step for Minsk to take, given the current conditions. At least it is necessary to develop the financial infrastructure of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which would secure bilateral transactions from the influence of third countries. Russia can mitigate damage from foreign sanctions. However, it is unlikely to fully compensate for them.
First published in the
Valdai Discussion Club
.
... that now Belarusian industry is “automatically” reorienting from counterparties in the EU and the United States to Russia should be taken with great caution. The question of the financial infrastructure for transactions within the Union State of Russia and Belarus is becoming even more urgent.
First published in the
Valdai Discussion Club
.
... would deprive the Belarusian leadership of room for manoeuvre in its dialogue with Moscow and make Minsk much more dependent. But this is theory. In practice, such sanctions will provide a headache for Russia itself. They will hit the economic ties of Belarusian and Russian enterprises. The latter may fear secondary US sanctions. In addition, Belarus is likely to need large-scale economic assistance. The threat of sanctions poses important problems for the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of ...
... Lukashenko. Russia then supported the legitimate Belarusian government and warned of its readiness to provide it with practical assistance.
Lukashenko himself can pursue his interests as much as he wants, and sometimes even refuse to coordinate actions with Russia — Belarus is a sovereign state. However, the alternative to his regime now is an attempt to bring to power such forces that will confidently follow the Ukrainian scenario.
The internal political crisis in Belarus, even if it enters a hot phase, would be ...
On February 15, 2021, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) hosted a closed discussion on crisis in Belarus as a challenge for Russia-Belarus relations
On February 15, 2021, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) hosted a closed discussion on crisis in Belarus as a challenge for Russia-Belarus relations.
The event was opened by Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General. On the ...
... the union, and its partners equally unwilling to cede parts of their sovereignty to supranational bodies that would be dominated by Russia. This dual refusal has put an end to the outsize ambitions of some, and unrealistic expectations of others.
With Belarus, Russia set out to build a union state back in 1999. Since the start, that union has been little more than a cover for special deals that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was able to get from Moscow in exchange mostly for pledges of unity, solidarity,...
... subsequent global recession is an ideal opportunity for the Kremlin to reassert its grip on at least some parts of the post-Soviet space. The West is much weaker today that it was just a couple of months ago. There is apparently no appetite for confronting Russia either in Belarus, or in the South Caucasus, not to mention Central Asia.
The United States is obsessed with its election drama; the European Union struggles with its immense domestic challenges; the glorious days of liberal triumphalism are gone. Arguably, the ...
