‘Estonia will not encourage the EU to boost ties with Russia’: an interview with Baltic-Russian relations expert Karmo Tüür

Karmo Tüür is head of the Centre for Baltic and Russian Studies at the University of Tartu in Estonia. He is an acknowledged political scientist with an expertise in Russia and its relations to the Baltic region and the EU. In this short interview, conducted on the sidelines of the international conference ‘Russia and the EU: potential for partnership?’, he comments on Estonia’s role in the widening of Russo-European cooperation

Mr Tüür, do you see a certain level of dissent from the pro-EU mainstream in Estonia?

Well, there are two fundamental aspects to this question: first, are Estonians unhappy about something, second, is that because of our membership in the European Union? Of course, there are troubles. High youth unemployment, brain drain – primarily into Finland and Sweden – make for a degree of public despair. But is this despair connected to the EU? Well, yes and no. On the one hand, one major cause for the economic troubles is the high inflation that came with the Euro. It had been widely forecast, and it proved true. But on the other hand, it will hardly put off the youngsters that live with the opportunity provided by the EU and find jobs in Brussels and Helsinki and Dublin. Therefore, I would argue that the troubles of Estonians are not greatly connected to EU membership.

Does this distress nonetheless imply a turn towards Russia? Is it a reason for enhanced economic cooperation between Russia and Estonia along with its Baltic neighbours?

Undeniably, there are nostalgics. The mainstream, however, is happy with the status quo. They say ‘nothing good will ever come from the East, even bad weather comes from there’. On a very simple level, many think that amiable relations should be pursued with all our neighbours, including Russia. And then there are businessmen expecting to make big money in Russia. But at the same time, they cannot but recall the failures. There are in fact very few success stories and even those are invisible. I personally know some Estonian businessmen leading a good business in Russia, whether or not with the officialdom. But they do not share this positive experience with the wider public. On the other hand, those who fail will speak about it loudly. Therefore, there is a shared knowledge in the Estonian business community that there is too much uncertainty to do business in Russia. While good profits are available at a reasonable risk in Finland, Sweden or elsewhere, the massive returns that can be made in Russia are not worth the immense risk.

Will you still agree to the inevitability of some sort of cooperation between the EU and Russia?

Let’s look at Cyprus. Could the EU cooperate with Russia over Cyprus? Obviously not. It is either-or for Cyprus: they can go either with European rules or with Russian money. ‘Играть по правилам, или по понятиям’ – roughly: respect the norms or respect the deal. Right now (March 21st) no one talks about Cyprus in terms of Russo-European cooperation; both sides take the stance that the situation should be dealt with ‘either our way or their way’.

In that case, how will Estonia use its position within the EU to influence the development of its relations with Russia?

Estonia will definitely not encourage the EU to recklessly boost ties with Russia. Estonians are sceptical about Russia and they think they know it too well. They then feel it is their responsibility to warn fellow Europeans to ‘take care, it is a dangerous place’. I can recall several occasions where politics and business figures explicitly said that Western Europeans know nothing about Russia, and that it is therefore for Estonians to teach them what to do and what not to do. Estonia is not exactly pro-Russian.