..., Turkey tries to increase its bargaining power and engages into price arbitrage with Gazprom: 10.25% discount offered by Gazprom is deemed insufficient and Turkey does not want to receive anything less than15%. Under the tightened atmosphere of the Syrian military theatre, Turkey threatens to cut off imports should her conditions be not satisfied. Gazprom’s interests in Turkey Turkey’s growing population and business already make it world’s top-20 economy, promising higher energy ...
- 07.04.2016 22:33:00
The U.S.-Russia agreement on the Syria ceasefire was in the spotlight of global media and think tanks last week. Likewise, Russia Direct has been extensively covering this deal and its implications for the world and the Middle East. With a great deal of uncertainty about the future of ...
- 01.03.2016 17:12:00
... war’. However, In spite of the political crisis and rising tensions between Russia and Euro-Atlantic region, the terroristic attacks in Paris on November are forcing the West and Russia to become allies in the fight against Islamic state of Iraq and Syria. Was it the opportunity for Putin to reconstruct geopolitical balance? The answer is definitely yes. However, Andrew Weiss (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) stated that: “Cooperation against terrorism between USA and Russia was ...
- 21.01.2016 14:19:00
... the timeline, geography, facts, context, and history concerning the withdrawal and the rise of ISIS makes this abundantly clear and provable beyond any reasonable doubt. Ultimately, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki's policies and the dynamics of Syria's raging civil war are the clear catalysts and drivers behind current crises with ISIS both in Syria and Iraq.
By Brian E. Frydenborg (LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter @bfry1981) December 16th, 2015
Originally published on LinkedIn Pulse ...
- 15.01.2016 16:37:00
... Russian fighter-bomber jet that Turkey alleges violated its airspace. The Russian jet had been bombing Turkmen positions/villages—part of a series of Russian bombings in recent days that have targeted Turkmen—on the border area of Turkey and Syria. Turkey is supporting these Turkmen rebels against Assad that Russia is bombing, and had previously asked Russia not to bomb them. Turkey also claims it warned the plane ten times before it fired, but Russia denies this. The alleged violation of ...
- 13.12.2015 16:44:00
... which occurred in Paris, and the issue of surveillance is far more complicated than the documentary Citizenfour would have you believe.
To those who think the only solution to this is simply more use of force and would blame Obama for not invading Syria and Iraq today like Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, please, just go away and stop talking. There are many complex factors in play. France in particular has serious problems with how it treats its Muslims and immigrants, problems that were not unrelated ...
- 21.11.2015 13:33:00
While Brazil's “strategic allies” --Germany and France-- are now turning away Syrians and other refugees Brazil has already provided asylum to 2,900 people presumed to be Syrian nationals fleeing the bloody civil war. The United States, which open sources indicate is spending billions of dollars to provide asylum to refugees from ...
- 14.11.2015 00:18:00
... are able to strike anywhere, including Russia itself.
By Brian E. Frydenborg (LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter @bfry1981) October 2nd, 2015
Originally published on LinkedIn Pulse
AMMAN — Anyone who’s been paying attention to the Syrian vortex of death, and Russia’s role in this vortex, knows that Putin’s motivations are not terribly difficult to understand and are, in fact, obvious. They generally run on three levels:
1.) Preserve the regime of Bashar al-Assad, ...
- 03.10.2015 12:32:00
A Sensible Grading of Obama’s Middle East Strategy: The Syrian Civil War
Grading Obama on what has—and has not—been done by his administration regarding the Syrian Civil War
By Brian E. Frydenborg (LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter @bfry1981) August 3rd, 2015
Originally published on LinkedIn ...
- 03.08.2015 13:05:00
... 21st, 2015
Originally published on LinkedIn Pulse here and also published by Stupidparty Math v. Myth thanks to Patrick Andendall and by Tuck Magazine.
Other articles in this series:
Grading Obama’s Middle East Strategy (Sensibly): Part II: Syria
The cocks who crow “failure” every time the sun rises about the Obama Administration’s overall Middle East strategy—and we will be hearing their mindless crowing at its highest decibels since the competition within the ...
- 07.06.2015 22:25:00
Media outlets and government circles both cringe and squirm when the subject of Westerners leaving the West to go fight in Syria and Iraq with the Islamic State arises. While acquiring data and calculating accurate numbers wildly diverges from source to source, there is no doubt that ANY number simply makes countries like the United States uncomfortable and perplexed: in ...
- 18.04.2015 17:10:00
... Russia, America, and the state of their relationship is the lack of measured and reasoned commentary. Make no mistake, though, the problems between Russia and America are serious and affect a whole host of major issues around the world from wars in Syria and Ukraine to global energy distribution, access, and prices, to space exploration and militarization, just to name a few.
Perhaps this is understandable, given the nature of the history of the most serious, dangerous rivalry the world has ever ...
- 27.02.2015 05:12:00
... and investing in the region.
2.) America’s involvement in the Arab Spring will likely remain limited.
Even in situations like in Egypt, for many years one of the top recipients of U.S. foreign aid, Obama and Americans, as was/is the case in Syria and Iraq, seems to prefer a “don’t do stupid shit” (to quote the president) approach.
Obama has—correctly—realized that it is immoral, ineffective, counterproductive, and far costlier for the U.S. to default to forcing ...
- 19.01.2015 17:46:00
... “Sunni Awakening” with its “Sons of Iraq.” The combination of increased U.S. military effort and increased political effort towards enlisting Sunni Arab Iraqis to fight extremists, especially in Iraq’s western Anbar province on Syria’s border, saw the defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq/Mesopotamia and similar extremist Sunni groups that had alienated local Sunnis with their brutality and extreme form of Islam; sure, the old Baathists were still there, ready to fight the Iraqi ...
- 13.01.2015 18:52:00
1. More cohesion in NATO?
According to the balance-of-threat assumption the lack of unambiguous threat decreases cohesion of military alliances, whereas the free-rider problem increases in inverse proportion. Even if one doesn't consider the geostrategical mischief of NATO eastward expansion there is nevertheless another problem. It seems to be clear that the Europeans reducing their military expenditures as well as Uncle Sam tired of his burden are not able and willing to pay for worries...
- 28.12.2014 04:03:00
Dr. Glen Segell
(Fellow – The Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies,University of Haifa, Israel)
The Southern flank of Europe is the Mediterranean Sea. It is a small sea and many countries rely on the freedom of both sea and air traffic for their economy. On the one hand there was optimism that the Arab Spring would bring greater freedom for the individual in countries on the southern shores of the Mediterranean Sea. There was further optimism that the North African countries of Tunisia...
- 24.11.2014 19:25:00
By Zhyldyz Oskonbaeva (RIEAS Senior Advisor & Eurasian Liaison)
On a number of levels, the situation between the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the ethnic Kurds of Syria, Iraq and Turkey is creating a power shift that no one is discussing. In this article, I will explain why: 1) The Kurds have an unprecedented opportunity to achieve a political homeland; 2) Tehran's strategy ...
- 05.11.2014 18:52:00
Patrick Adams (Strategic Analyst & RIEAS Research Associate)
A victory for the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria would have a wide range of economic, social and political consequences. Economically, there would be a significant and damaging effect on the world's oil supply. Socially, not only would Iraq and Syria be affected but any country with a ...
- 01.11.2014 01:33:00
(Author based in the Middle East)
Al Baghdadi's major strategic failure has been his choice of the Fertile Crescent as the region for the establishment of his Khilafa. His dream of reestablishing a Sunni caliphate with roots in Iraq and Syria will eventually be crushed by the field's realities and only exposes his own lack of knowledge about the region. Not that a Sunni leadership would be impossible to carry on the lands of the ancient Omayyad and Abbasid's caliphates,...
- 28.10.2014 13:36:00
As events in Syria have been unfolding, a remark made several years ago by King Abdullah of Jordan sticks in my mind. Abdullah, an intelligent, enlightened monarch like his father King Hussein, was explaining why he was optimistic about the future of the Arab world....
- 19.09.2014 12:04:00