Russia, the EU and Macron-cooperation or destruction of the EU? For a Holistic Green Europe!

Global Review has a good relationship with the think tank of the Russian foreign ministery RIAC, writes articles for them and reposts articles of them on our website to support a New East Policy and an EU-Russia ecoalliance and other areas of cooperation. I am very interested in what their chief Dr.Kortunov writes about the defrosting of EU-Russian relations. I have read another article of him, which made me think about how serious he is about it. He wrote that the idea of a treaty between Russia and the EU/NATO to stop its expansion to the East was flawed because treaties are not reliable and can be canceled at any time. Therefore the best way was if Russia changes the power relations in Europe, it should try to expand its influence and leverage. He doesn’t believe in treaties and diplomacy, but more in real power facts.

Source: zen.yandex.ua

If we speak of EU-Russian relations we shouldn’t speak of the present status quo of EU and think that this was the end of the story. Decisive will be how the EU will develop after the Brexit. In 2020 we will have the US elections with a high probability that Trump will be reelected if he doesn´t make a real dump mistake or a black swan occurs. In 2021 we will have probably a black-green government and more conservative and neoliberal Merz (who formerly retreated from his positions in the transatlantic Atlantic bridge and Blackrock and promotes now also a China Bridge) Laschet, Span or Habeck or Baerbrock as the new chancellor, maybe with a third coalition partner, if the CDU should take the way of the SPD after Thüringen. More European and still transatlantic, if Trump is not totally frustrating the transatlantism.

But even more decisive for the EU: The next time we will also face new presidential elections in France. We shouldn’t take it for granted that Macron will be reelected. Macron made a lot of initiatives. The European initiative, then the treaty with Germany in Aachen, then his restrictive ideas on further EU enlargement and a new relation with Russia and about European sovereignty, then after the Brexit his turn to Poland to replace the German- French-GB trio by the Weimar Triangle and the inclusion of Poland with France as a mediator between Russia and Poland and now his speech on security policy promoting more European security cooperation and bringing the French nuclear deterrence in an European framework as supporting force, but not under the integration of an European nuclear power.

I support all initiatives of Macron with the exception of the financial union as it doesn´t address the inner antagonism of the Euro as a common currency that is not based on currency-optimal economic space., but wants to expand this antagonism even by thinking of Bulgaria and Romania as new Euro members and collectivize debts. And Macron knows that his sort of financial union which would be a potential bailout by the North European countries and Germany in the event of a new Euro crisis might weaken the Front National, but on the other side strengthen the German AfD. And even then Marine Le Pen would claim that Macron is by his financial union even more submitting the Grand Nation France under German financial hegemony and austerity which exploits the French worker, middle class and honest Frenchman, while the AfD would say the opposite that the lazy South European parasites under the leadership of France would exploit the German tax payer and the honest German. It would cause mutual dissatsifaction.

But: First many French are dissatisfied that Macron’s European Initiative which was basically the financial union as he was a former banker at Rothschilds like Draghi at Goldman Sachs. and he didn’t find the appropriate enthusiasm by Germany and parts of the EU. Many French thought that Germany could be the paymaster for the weak French economy by Macron’s EU financial reforms, but Germany is refusing to do so. Then the EU could face a trade war with the USA and already shows signs of a recession, especially the powerhouse Germany.

Macron also thought that by his economic reforms France could become an economic powerhouse like Germany after Schröder’s Agenda 2010 reforms. However, the protests and dissatisfaction by the Yellow Jackets and now the unions about his pension reforms are gigantic. Marine Le Pen already said if she was elected president she would cancel the pension reform. Even if Macron pushes through his reforms, they need time till a positive effect occurs. Time could be on the side of Le Pen. Till now the political theory was that the French never could vote for Le Pen in the second round of the elections as the antifascist, democratic Republican spirit of the French would prevent such an outcome. However, nobody thought about the possibility that Trump could ever be elected or that the Brexit could happen.

In the next presidential elections, we will see whom Putin supports: Will he again support Le Pen like he did when a befriended Russian oligarch gave a 40 million credit to the Front National and meddle in the election in the hope that a Le Pen-France would be the end of the France-German axis, the Euro and maybe the EU, that a Le Pen-France will retreat from NATO and that Le Pen will even team up with Russia in an Eurasian axis. In Germany and the EU there is no Plan B for such a development as this could be the definite end of the EU. And how would Russia react if such a development occurs?

We have one major difference. Putin as Sasha Rahr don´t like liberal democracy and could promote a regime change policy in Europe. Of course, it´s logical if an AfD or the Front National seizes power in Germany and France, the EU and NATO were finished and Putin had an easy game, even could try to make an Eurasian axis with these fascists parties. Or Putin and Le Pen could team up against a neofascist Germany and bring the end of the German EU powerhouse together and militarily as only the USA and GB could support Germany. And the AfD is not sure to team up with the USA or with Russia. But while an AfD still would need time to seize power, in France Marine Le Pen could do this the next time. And then isolate a black-green-ecological value-based democratic Germany-maybe together with the Trump-USA and/or Russia, just to destroy the EU and the world export nation Germany.

And a black-green German government could also very quickly lose public support, because the CO2 tax, the loss of jobs due to restructuring of the traffic and transport system (Verkehrswende), digitalization, a recession due to trade wars and the cyclical downward recession after 10 years Merkel boom and the delays in the energy transition (Energiewende) as because ofother still unforeseeable factors. And as in many European countries, the dynamic is: The former people´s parties cannot rule by themself or in a 2 party coalition anymore but are vanishing and new parties and movements emerge. You even have to make 2-3-4 party coalitions as the planned Jamaika coalition or a Great coalition like in Germany but have to make foul compromises or getting paralyzed and appear totally disunited. Therefore all the euphoric enthusiasts about a black-green government shouldn´t think that this would be an everlasting entity for the future.

However, I don´t trust Putin, but the right-winged parties and Putin and China and such plans can´t be countered by the existing policy, therefore I wrote my Holistic Green Europe with a New East Policy. to give the EU its own vision. If the EU has not its own vision and programs, if nothing like this exists, the centrifugal forces will destroy the EU. Compare this also to my comments about Macron, the EU-Russian relations and that Macron might be not the last development of the future EU.

It is not the question if Germany, the EU or the West trust Putin or Russia, but that it has its own concept and strategy and vision which makes the EU strong enough that it can resist foreign or negative Russian meddling and influence. Only on this basis, an EU-Russian cooperation can materialize. I don´t blame Putin or Russia that they want to exploit weaknesses of the EU, but I mostly blame the EU for not having their own plan, strategy, and vision that could make them strong.

In our view the EU and Germany and France before thinking about further EU and NATO enlargement, EU military missions or new Euro members have first to stabilize and revitalize the idea oft he EU by three major projects:

1) A New East Policy with Russia and Eurasia

2) A European Silk Road Marco Polo 2 to renew the prosperity promise of Europe

3) A EU Los Alamos project that invests heavily in new disruptive technologies and quantum computers as the new invention of the steam engine for digitalization.

These ideas were spelled out in a speech for a EU parlimant candidate oft he Greens but were rejected at that time and shall be documented here