Rebuilding Nations: A Policy Analysis of Post-War Afghanistan and Iraq

Author: Mohammad Amir Radmnish, 1st year Master's student of HSE University - Saint-Petersburg School of Social Sciences

Introduction

Post-conflict nation-building is a complex process that requires re-establishing the economy, government, and social institutions alongside managing security issues. As two of the most famous instances of post-conflict reconstruction, Afghanistan and Iraq offer valuable lessons regarding the success and failure of global interventions. While the two countries are different from one another, they both come with foreign intervention and domestic battle that makes them strategic examples of studying post-conflict nation-building dynamics. Afghanistan and Iraq have developed different paths as a consequence of historical, cultural, and political differences. Brought about by years of war and the regaining of influence by the Taliban, Afghanistan is a symbol of a firmly torn-apart society with fragile institutions. Iraq, meanwhile, has been subjected to sectarian conflicts and conflicts over how resources would be allocated from the 2003 U.S. invasion. Both are key to comprehending how some strategies can be used to advance reconstruction and provide lessons for global post-conflict action.

Source: pronedra.ru

This report compares nation-building approaches in Iraq and Afghanistan, emphasizing governance, economic revival, reconciliation, and security. It extracts lessons from Iraq that can apply to future reconstruction in Afghanistan, as well as conditions that are specific challenges in both countries. By examining these problems, the report seeks to offer pragmatic suggestions to policymakers and practitioners engaged in post-conflict reconstruction.

Afghanistan Post-War Situation

The post-war situation in Afghanistan reflects decades of war and instability, reinforced by the return of the Taliban to power in August 2021. These events have led to serious political, economic, social, and security issues, as described below. The political climate under the Taliban is one of centralization of authority and discriminatory policies. The Taliban have created an informal Islamic emirate that has banned political parties and kept women and ethnic minorities out of political authority. The government is deeply centralized, with decision-making concentrated in the hands of Taliban bosses in Kandahar. This form of governance mirrors the authoritarian trend of decision-making in Afghanistan's past, particularly because centralization in the 2004 constitution failed to cater to the needs of plural communities. Historically, Afghanistan's past government has always been marked with instability and uncertainty even before the Taliban's resurgence. From 2001 to 2021, the country was ruled under a republican government with international backing aimed at establishing a democratic state. Domestic corruption, weak institutional ability, and regional conflicts, however, halted developments. Economic data from this time indicate that Afghanistan's GDP always grew over the years of international support, with huge investments in infrastructures, education, and so on. The abrupt ending of this support beyond 2021 increased the economic downturn, with the Taliban struggling to control an ailing economy.

Afghanistan has been in a severe recession since 2021. Foreign development aid withdrawal, which was making a contribution of 75 percent of the national budget previously, made the economy shrink by 26 percent over 2021-2022. Though, GDP increased slightly by 2.7 percent during 2023/24, the recovery is weak since it has recovered only 10 percent of the losses incurred previously. Agriculture sector, being the backbone of the Afghanistan economy, remains vulnerable to climate change, underinvestment, and insecurity. Corruption and inefficiencies that prevented efforts to stabilize the economy, have been added to this, to leave the country dependent on high imports and informal labor.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is one of the worst in the world. Approximately 23.7 million people need humanitarian aid and 6 million are on the brink of famine. Food insecurity, driven by the economic instability as well as climatic change-related challenges, has have been hindered both in urban and rural life. The Vulnerable groups including women and girls Mostly impacted by Taliban policies that have kept them away from education, employment, and public life. These restrictions have also made it more difficult to deliver humanitarian aid, particularly in such areas as health and education.

Security challenges continue even after the Taliban control. Insurgent organizations such as ISIS-K* continue to carry out attacks, destabilizing the country and endangering regional stability. Afghanistan continues to be a haven for transnational militant activities that have been experienced in neighboring countries such as Pakistan and Central Asian states. The Taliban counterinsurgency efforts, which have a tendency of involving heavy-handedness, have helped fuel local resentment and mobilize resistance in some areas.

International intervention in the Afghan crisis has played a major role. The World Bank and other organizations have provided basic services such as health, education, and food security, through initiatives like the Afghanistan Resilience Fund (ARTF) and CASA-1000 project. Such mechanisms help provide support free of Taliban control. The prohibition under the Taliban over women aid workers, however, has significantly diluted the effect of humanitarian action.

Iraq Post-war context

Post-war context within Iraq, informed by the 2003 invasion led by the US, encompasses an intricate combination of political, economic, social and security issues. The overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime left behind a political structure driven by sectarian quotas, dependence on oil revenues and the rise of insurgencies which have contributed to long-term effects on stability and governance in the country.

The overthrow of Saddam Hussein freed Iraq's centralized political structure and replaced the political structure on sectarian quotas, commonly characterized as the "Muhasasa Ta'ifia" system. This framework, which alternates major government positions between sectarian and ethnic parties, has favored inefficiency, corruption and partisanship. As regularly scheduled elections are currently being conducted, the nation has also suffered from armed militias and foreign intervention, primarily from Iran, which destroyed Iraq's democratic leadership and advancement. Governments successively in succession, such as Mustafa al-Kadhimi and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, have also struggled with considerable attempts to reconcile internal tensions and foreign affairs, such as popular grievances, sectarian rivalry, and governmental dysfunction.

Iraq is highly reliant on oil, which accounts for 99 percent of exports, 85 percent of the government budget, and 42 percent of GDP. Oil prices being high have resulted in a budget surplus and increased foreign exchange reserves, although structural problems like corruption, wasteful public expenditure, and poor provision of public services persist. Economic persification efforts have been contained and have further accelerated climate change, agricultural decline, water shortage, and urban migration. International funding schemes such as the World Bank's Emergency Operations for Development Project (EODP) and the Social Fund for Development (SFD) have helped rebuild infrastructure and create employment in conflict-affected areas.

Iraq's security establishment has continued to struggle since the 2011 withdrawal of US troops. Insurgent movements such as ISIS*, although weakened, persist in exploiting government vacuums and sectarian pisions. The transition from a US-led Joint Task Force to a bilateral sovereign security cooperation signals Iraq's complex dance between believing in sovereignty and clinging to partnerships. The idea of Iraqi sovereignty with foreign troops, including US troops, hosted within its borders is highly contentious. Indeed, according to Simon and Weinstein (2023), US troops have played a crucial role in combating ISIS, Iraqi security forces training, and stabilizing the country's defense infrastructure. Nevertheless, they have also been the cause of greatest sovereignty issues to Iraqi rulers and have invited resistance from other parties such as Iranian-aligned militias and nationalist forces. Moreover, this military deployment complicates resolving domestic concerns because militias and political parties legitimize their continued existence on the basis of this military deployment, either through the exercise of dual power or through promoting destabilizing conduct Therefore, it is evident that foreign military presence is a double-edged sword; one through which stabilization can occur and at the same time one through which friction can be generated.

Maliki's monopolization, which is a product of US withdrawal, has led to internal insecurity that has severely affected Iraqi security. The presence of armed militias, including those supported by Iran, has undermined state authority and hindered the stabilization of the country. Rebuilding the security sector has been impeded by factionalism, weak command structures, and foreign intervention. Integrating the Iraqi Peshmerga and Armed Forces, especially in conflict areas, is crucial to national unity building and cohesion.

Iraqi reconstruction after the war has been marked by social fragmentation and instrumental mobilization of cultural heritage along sectarian lines. Political elites hijacked cultural discourses in order to widen ethnic and sectarian cleavages, undermining nation-building and the preservation of culture. National projects such as the United Nations (UNDP) Local Development Initiatives are aiming to address these challenges by enabling community-driven governance and cultural conservation. The displaced continue to face barriers to return, with over a million barred from home return due to alleged associations with extremist factions or civil war. Reconstruction centers on rebuilding trust, redeveloping infrastructure, and strengthening social cohesion.

Major Areas of Comparison

Afghanistan and Iraq have disparate post-war governance structures. Iraq embraced under its 2005 constitution a federal system that decentralizes authority among the federal government and local governments such as the Kurdistan Regional Government. This was meant to decentralize and make the political system more inclusive but also solidified sectarian pisions, as clear from the "Muhasasa Ta'ifia" system that allocates political positions based on ethnicity and sectarianism. Conversely, Afghan government, particularly under Taliban rule since 2021, has been highly centralized with decision-making powers in the hands of Pashtun elites. This sole setup disenfranchises ethnic minorities such as Hazaras and Uzbeks, and exacerbates internal cleavages. Unlike Iraq's federal setup, the Afghan government is institutionally non-inclusive and representative of its multi-ethnic citizenry.

Both countries are hugely dependent on foreign resources, though in different ways. The Iraqi economy is heavily reliant on its revenues from oil. The World Bank notes that oil remains to predominate the economic prospects in Iraq, taking up much of the government incomes, exports, and overall levels of economic activity. This, however, leaves Iraq vulnerable to instability due to changes in international oil prices. During 2022, Iraq recorded strong economic growth thanks to higher oil prices, while foreign exchange reserves reached a high of a record $89 billion. But then in 2023, economy growth slowed down to 2.6 percent because of curbs in output under the OPEC+ alliance and easing in the non-oil sector. The non-oil sectors remain underdeveloped and contribute just a limited quota to economic persification. Structural problems like inefficiency in national spending, poor infrastructure, and corruption have hindered Iraq from lessening its oil dependency. Besides, climate change and drought worsen Iraq's economic vulnerabilities, especially in agriculture. The failure to reform the stranglehold of the public sector has also held back Iraq's private sector growth.

In Afghanistan, previous foreign aid had accounted for as much as 45 percent of GDP, and more than 75 percent of government spending had relied on international support. The abrupt withdrawal of this aid after the Taliban regime took power while it created a humanitarian crisis with over 93 percent of its population food insecure. Contrary to the oil dependence of Iraq, the economic problems in Afghanistan arise due to its aid dependence and absence of sustainable sources of income.

Security and Stability

The security architecture of Iraq has changed dramatically following the defeat of ISIS*. Transition from a US-led Joint Task Force-OIR to a bilateral security accord is a testament to the willingness of Iraq to assert sovereignty while remaining in security partnership with America. However, there are still challenges, with Iran-backed militias such as Kataib Hezbollah, which are undermining government control in areas of weak governance. Outstanding territorial disputes, particularly between the central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), also hinder stabilization. The water crisis and its impact on social stability are also major issues in Iraq. The country has been engaged in reconciliation initiatives and conflict prevention, including USIP-supported workshops, to solve the water crisis and return displaced persons.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban's takeover in 2021 brought about early reduction in overall violence. However, insurgent threats, particularly from ISIS-K*, continue to destabilize the country. ISIS-K acts in urban, cities and reopened its clandestine networks, challenging the Taliban's capacity to reign. Afghanistan also faces cross-border threats and organized criminal operations, including illegal mining and drug trafficking, which undermine domestic security.

The lack of a strong national security infrastructure, combined with limited foreign support and sanctions, exposed Afghanistan to internal and external pressures. The counterinsurgency efforts by Iraq, including collaborations with foreign players, highlight the value of cooperation in combating insurgency. A similar strategy could be used by Afghanistan to combat ISIS-K* and other radical groups. The experience of Iraq with the tactical pullout of American forces provides an example of how a nation can maintain its sovereignty while capitalizing on foreign security aid. Afghanistan can model this to balance foreign aid and internal security autonomy. Additionally, the Iraqi model of integrating the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) into formal security institutions gives Afghanistan an example to integrate informal militias within formal security institutions. This can reduce sectarianism and improve state capability in Afghanistan.

Although, there was a plan to integrate Taliban fighters into the Afghan army when it was under the republican regime, but now with the Taliban coming into government, this is not easy. Counter-insurgency forces have popped up spread across various places around Afghanistan, and the Taliban are a good long way off from being in the mood of exercising power-sharing. Nor exist all-Taliban style militia, which means that a second cause for difficulty of integration lies in place. The combatants are dispersed within various commandants each owning his respective contingent of soldiers, who cannot be considered a national army.

Social Cohesion and National Reconciliation

Reconciliation in Iraq has revolved around bridging sectarian pisions, particularly following the demise of ISIS*. Programs such as UNDP initiatives and the Iraqi Facilitators Network have employed tribal mechanisms and national dialogues to settle disputes and restore social trust. There are, nonetheless, challenges in achieving inclusiveness, and marginalized groups are often excluded from peacebuilding processes. Social cohesion in Afghanistan is undermined by the tribal politics of the Taliban. Pashtun-dominated policies that discriminate against other ethnic groups, such as Tajiks and Hazaras, stir pisions and make reconciliation processes more difficult. According to Pars Today report, 90 percent of the Taliban's top leadership are Pashtuns. Unlike the organized reconciliation programs of Iraq, Afghanistan lacks official channels for grievances and inter-ethnic reconciliation. 

The Global Community Role

The global community has a critical role to play in ending the turbulent crises in Afghanistan. The UN Strategic Framework for Afghanistan (2023-2025) focuses on promoting significant humanitarian assistance and addressing basic human needs. It involves promoting resilience to shocks, livelihoods, and sustaining past two decades' development gains. High-priority interventions focus on increasing access to basic services, building economic opportunities, and increasing social cohesion. International organizations, including UNAMA, are struggling to maintain their operational space despite Taliban-imposed limits on women's participation in aid delivery. The strategy emphasizes the importance of donor financial support to be harmonized with Afghanistan's recovery needs, particularly the alleviation of food insecurity and maternal mortality.

Iraq has had wide international support directed towards stabilization and recovery. UNHCR's Iraq Situation Report (2025) emphasizes the shift from relief humanitarian assistance to development-focused initiatives aimed at the return of displaced populations and the modernization of public facilities. Joint efforts have resulted in interventions in rebuilding infrastructure, access to education, and economic empowerment. International organizations such as UNDP and donor countries continuously provide support to address issues of security as well as better governance. Further, strategic collaborations with the private sector aim to improve the economic resilience and employment creation in Iraq, as highlighted in the Iraq Strategy Report 2025-2029.

The experience of Iraq in transitioning from emergency relief to development aid highlights the need for sustainability in humanitarian intervention in Afghanistan. The Role of International Coalitions in Stabilizing Iraq highlights the need for multilateral approaches that Afghanistan can leverage to strengthen its governance frameworks.

Challenges of implementation the Iraqi Model in Afghanistan

Applying the Iraqi model to Afghanistan is faced with a series of challenges that stem from inherent differences in historical, cultural, and political contexts. Iraq and Afghanistan have undergone state-building differently. The process of reconstruction in Iraq, while problematic, was done on the lines of a democratic federal system based on a constitution that allowed for the sharing of power between religious and ethnic groups. Afghanistan, however, is ruled by the Taliban, whose regime is highly centralized with minimal political engagement. This political reality makes it difficult to implement decentralized government or wide-based political institutions. The application of the Iraqi federal model to Afghanistan is the latest attempt at state-building in Afghanistan that holds the promise of ushering in a decentralized system within a constitutional framework. The idea of a democratic federal system in Afghanistan was first introduced by Abdul Ali Mazari, leader of the Wahdat Party in Afghanistan. Which was an attempt to end the civil wars and install an inclusive and participatory government that would represent all ethnic and religious groups in Afghanistan. Based on the objective reality of Afghanistan, it would seem that the only way out of nation-building in Afghanistan is to institute a federal democratic political system that, like in Iraq, can share power between the primary ethnic groups in a federal system.

Another fundamental challenge is the role of foreign actors. Iraq was privileged with the unwavering support of the US-led coalition, which helped the country to rebuild, both in terms of military presence and financial support, though this came with strings attached. Afghanistan, however, has seen a dramatic decrease in international interaction since the Taliban came to power. The departure of the Western forces and the reduction in foreign aid have severely limited Afghanistan's ability to undertake large-scale reconstruction activities such as Iraq. The current presence of foreign actors is not favorable to Afghanistan's reconstruction but also considers Afghanistan as a strategic depth. The US, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran are trying to make the most out of the power vacuum in Afghanistan.

 Security and stability are also great concerns. Notwithstanding sectarian war and insurgency, Iraq has gradually become more stable, supported by national reconciliation and military operations. Afghanistan remains, however, weak, with domestic resistance to the Taliban, persistent insurgencies, and unresolved ethnic and political rivalries. Absent a secure security environment, large-scale Iraqi-style reconstruction programs will not be possible in Afghanistan.

 Economically, Iraq's petroleum wealth has been the prime motivator in paying for reconstruction, but corruption has also been an issue. But Afghanistan lacks such a source of funds. The country's economy is mainly centered on agriculture, illegal trade, and small international aid. The lack of a strong financial basis makes it harder to apply the Iraqi economic model. Without substantial investment in managing resources and persifying the economy, Afghanistan will face many challenges on the way to sustainable reconstruction.

Policy Suggestions for Afghanistan

A sound approach towards Afghanistan's reconstruction must be tailored to the country's special circumstances along with embracing appropriate lessons from the Iraqi process. Short-term stability, medium-term governance reforms, and long-term sustainability should be the targets of policy suggestions so that state-building processes progress steadily and smoothly ahead.

Short term-wise, Afghanistan must focus on wide-based political dialogue so as to develop stability. It is necessary to have contact with different political and ethnic groups in order to diffuse tensions and prevent further fragmentation. It is essential to have a decentralized political setup where different political and ethnic nodes can identify themselves within the political setup. Federalism can perhaps be the most suitable decentralized political setup for Afghanistan, and drawing lessons from the Iraqi experience here would not be without benefit. This would achieve long-term political stability for Afghanistan. Economic stability is just as important and requires transparent use of available funds in the vital areas of healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Relief support in the guise of humanitarian aid also has to be increased to address food shortages, displacement, and health emergencies, while political issues at hand are not addressed.

For mid-term reform, a decentered system of governance has to be implemented to more widely disperse power between regional and local governments. In contrast to the federal model that Iraq inherited from its pre-existing frameworks, Afghanistan needs a tailor-made model which balances central power with local rule. National reconciliation efforts need to be pursued in order to overcome ethnic and tribal pisions, enhance inter-communal trust, and prevent future conflict. Additionally, there needs to be an emphasis on the establishment of the administrative capacity of Afghanistan so that the government institutions strengthen and become self-sustaining. In the medium to long term, Afghanistan can focus on developing sustainable infrastructure to support economic growth and regional integration. Investment in energy, road development, and telecommunication will be essential in assisting it to move beyond reliance on foreign aid.

National unity can be promoted through education reform as well, for example, by emphasizing inclusion and tolerance in educational curricula while ensuring balanced access to education by all communities, particularly women, girls, and underprivileged minorities. Apart from that, Afghanistan must develop long-term economic strategies that encourage investment in agriculture, small industry, and alternative sources of energy in order to progressively reduce dependence on foreign assistance and strengthen economic independence. These recommendations provide a plan for the rebuilding of Afghanistan that, while accepting the limitations of not directly reproducing the Iraqi model, gains useful lessons in improving governance, economic development, and social harmony. An approach tailored to the Afghan socio-political environment will be needed to ensure sustainable and fair post-conflict development.

* recognized as terrorist group on the territory of the Russian Federation