The future of EU-Ukraine-Russian Relation
In March18, 2014 in Berlin has been presented four scenarios of EU-Ukrainian relation that were developed by a team of 26 civil societies experts, academics and state workers across Ukraine. The event supported by European Council of Foreign Relation www.ecfr.eu and Friedrich-Ebert Foundation www.fes.de and opened a discussion of perspectives, difficulties and trends in modern Ukraine after 2013-2014 Euromaidan revolution.
The experts´ team worked since November, 2013 and up to January, 2014 and the scenarios were developed in the dramatically period of Ukrainian reality. The “highway”, “speed limit road”, “bumpy road” and “dead end road” are scenarios that represent the most visible future of EU-Ukraine cooperation. One crucial point of all EU-Ukraine scenarios is policy and acceptance of Russian Federation regarding this cooperation. Russia seems in all scenarios is dominant and prominent actor.
The highway-scenario states on believe that Ukraine will achieve full EU membership and will took part in the European Parliament election in 2029. The role of Russian policy within Ukraine reduces into the minimum due to fact that Russian politicians prioritize the economic benefits over political interests in their relation with Ukraine. The financial support offered by EU, USA, and IMF led to the political stabilization and keep country’s budget in balance. The further transparency of energy policy in the world, growing potential of energy saving technologies, and the signed agreement on building gas plant with China, as well as effective cooperation between Chevron, Shell and their Ukraine partners, helps Ukraine to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. As a consequence of highway scenario the idea “from Lisboa to Vladivostok” come true and brought all parties´ interests together.
The second positive scenario- speed limit road – assumes successful democratic reforms after 2013-2014 Euromaidan revolution and as their result a forced discussion about Ukraine’s membership in the EU. According this scenario, European and American politicians support Ukraine on the pro- European way, when Russia faces its economical crisis and must consider the EU as “a source of economic modernization”. The energy and gas supplier’s policy becomes a turning point for triangle cooperation, as well as a “silent agreement” between all parties to preserve and reduce a growing role of China on the world area.
The third scenario –bumpy road- observes reduced activities of EU and to it contrast, the efforts of Russian policy toward Ukraine due to the country felt deeper into Russian sphere of geopolitical and economical influence. The pro-Russian majority in the Ukrainian Parliament, increasing gas prices, lack of modernization and reforms in the Ukraine, introduction of sanctions from Russia against Ukrainian business and goods, unwillingness and impossibility to find an energy´ conflict resolution accepted by all parties dampen the deepen integration into the EU. In that regard, Ukraine turns from EU to Russia.
The fourth scenario is a “dead end road” assumed a minimum cooperation between EU and Ukraine and blocked any further discussion on EU-Ukraine Associate Agreement. As a result, the pro-Russian president will be elected in Ukraine in 2019 and Ukraine became an associated member of Eurasian Economic Union. Such a path will suppose that Ukraine is Russian satellite.
The speakers on behalf of experts´ team express that the significant task for modern Ukrainian politicians is friendly re-orientation of the civil society and political institutions as well towards Europe.
The results of experts´ work were dead before they get it presented. The initial pre-condition for recent analytical scenarios was that Ukraine remains the same borders as a legally sovereign and independent state. As we actually know, the split of Ukraine took place de facto and for Russia de jure after referendum in Crimea in March 16, 2014.
The crisis in the Ukraine and the referendum in Crimea change a view on perspectives for potentiality of EU-Ukraine-Russian relation. The European politicians speak about so called “three columns of policy”. The first column is sanctions toward Russia as an infringer of status quo; the second – a support for temporary government in the Ukraine and the third column – a creation and development of diplomatic dialogue between conflict’s parties. The Ukrainian politicians are still searching for an appropriated respond towards referendum’s results in Crimea and actions that followed it. Only Russian politicians keep calm and silent, as they already know what kind of scenario they keep alive.
The Future of EU-Ukraine Relation. Four Scenarios. Scenario Team EU-Ukraine 2030. March 2014 (publish soon)