Oleg Maslov's Blog

Putin's Proposal for Constitutional Update

April 30, 2020
Print

In his State of the Union address on January 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his proposals for overhauling the Russian constitution. Western media has unanimously reported that Putin’s proposals present an opportunity for Putin to retain his grip on power, but the aim of this article is to look at how these changes might open up potential avenues of cooperation between Russia and the United States.

vputin.jpg

TASS

Brief History

In response to Putin’s proposals, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced the resignation of the entire cabinet of ministers. Although the new government features some familiar faces, including Sergey Lavrov as Foreign Minister and Sergey Shoigu as Defense Minister, Russia’s new Prime Minister is Mikhail Mishustin, a little-known technocrat that gained a reputation as an effective manager during his tenure at the helm of Russia’s federal tax agency. According to the official website of the State Duma (in Russian), Putin’s proposed constitutional changes include:

· Giving the Russian Constitution precedence over international law;

· Giving the State Duma the right to approve the candidacies of the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Ministers and Federal Ministers. The President will not be able to refuse their appointment, but in some cases will be able to remove them from office;

· People who hold top offices (President, Ministers, judges, heads of regions) will not be able to have foreign citizenship or residence permit in other countries, either at the time of their work in office or, in the case of the President, at any time before;

· A presidential candidate must live in Russia for at least 25 years (currently 10 years);

· The Federation Council (the upper house of Parliament) will be able to propose to the President to dismiss Federal judges. In some cases, the Federation Council, at the proposal of the President, will have the right to remove judges of the Constitutional and Supreme courts;

· Heads of law enforcement agencies must be appointed by the President in consultation with the Federation Council;

· The minimum wage cannot be lower than the subsistence minimum;

· Regular indexation of pensions to inflation and other indicators;

· Consolidation of the status and role of the State Council (at present it is only an advisory body and is not prescribed in the Constitution);

· Granting the Constitutional Court the ability to check the constitutionality of laws adopted by the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation at the request of the President before they are signed by the President;

· Removing the “consecutive” clause from the article regulating the maximum number of presidential terms, ensuring that no person will be able to serve more than two terms as Russia’s president.

Many Western media outlets have claimed that these constitutional changes offer Putin the ability to remain in control long after his last term as Russia’s president expires in 2024. Vladimir Putin, currently 67 years old, has been in power in Russia either as President or Prime Minister since 1999, the longest-serving ruler since Joseph Stalin. Some media outlets speculate that Putin’s proposed constitutional changes could enable him to retain control over Russia either by switching to the Prime Minister role again (Putin became Prime Minister in 2008 before taking back the presidency in 2012) or moving into the newly-legitimized State Council (similar to the US National Security Council), among other options. Putin’s proposals certainly do give him options to extend his influence over Russia after his current presidential term expires, but the proposals also bring Russia’s political system more in line with Western traditions of power-sharing, make Russia’s parliament more competitive, and lay the ground for a functioning political system after Putin leaves politics for good.

Inevitable Power Transition

More than allowing Putin to extend his control over Russia, the constitutional changes appear to foresee the many challenges of power transition that will arise when Putin inevitably leaves the Russian power arena, one way or another. Although many in Russia’s elite and wider levels of society feel that Putin’s two-decade-long term at Russia’s helm was necessary to get the country back on its feet, there is no guarantee that his successor will possess the same skills. If a lesser skilled successor were to enjoy the same powers that Russia’s presidency offered before Putin’s constitutional changes, this may have caused problems for Russia down the road. Instead, Putin’s changes spread control out to various stakeholders in the Russian political system, ensuring that his inevitable successor is exposed to increased scrutiny and checks and balances from many parts of the government structure.

Introducing increased checks and balances on the nation’s highest office is an indication that Putin has come to believe that the level of power that he had as president may prove to be detrimental in the hands of another. Regardless of who eventually takes Putin’s place in the presidency, Russia’s eventual new leader will have less freedom and maneuverability and will be forced to reckon with increased accountability and oversight from a range of stakeholders. As a result, the constitutional changes increase the importance of elected officials and various bureaucracies, leading to a professionalization of the Russian government, increased competition, and increased oversight over top-level decision making.

Impact on Russian-American Relations

Although Russian-American relations will continue in the same vein as long as Putin continues to be the primary driver of Russian politics, the United States should also plan for a transition in their diplomatic efforts vis-a-vis Russia in light of the recent constitutional changes. If our hypothesis is correct, it will be increasingly difficult for subsequent Russian Presidents and Prime Ministers to dictate their will in Russia. Other groups of power brokers, such as the Federation Council and the State Duma, stand to gain influence over politics. All of this is done with the intention to signal that Russia wants to improve business conditions, make politics more transparent, and forge better relations with democratic countries.

Share this article

Poll conducted

  1. In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
    U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements  
     33 (31%)
    U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity  
     30 (28%)
    U.S. wants to dissolve Russia  
     24 (22%)
    U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China  
     21 (19%)
For business
For researchers
For students