Russia and the Asia-Pacific Region

Artyom Lukin: Russian President Skipped East Asia Summit -- Again

October 13, 2013
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On October 10th , Brunei hosted East  Asia Summit. This was the 8th annual meeting of EAS – the forum which was  launched in 2005 and has now gained the status of the Asia-Pacific’s most important multilateral venue to discuss security issues at the highest political level. EAS now consists of 18 members (10 ASEAN countries, Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, the US, and Russia).

 

The Brunei Summit was remarkable for the absence of the leaders of two key powers – the US and Russia. The reason why Barack Obama did not come was plain enough: the domestic crisis over the US budget forced the president to cancel his major Asian tour which was to include not only the EAS event, but also an APEC summit, as well as visits to Malaysia and the Philippines. It is much less clear why Vladimir Putin chose not to go to Brunei, especially given that just two days before the Russian president attended the APEC summit events in the not-so-distant from Brunei Indonesian Bali.

 

It is striking that Russian president failed to take part in EAS for a third time in a row. Just a few years ago Moscow had vigorously sought membership in the grouping and, at last, in 2010, along with the US, was invited to join EAS as a full participant.  Yet, although East Asia summits call for the attendance of heads of states or governments, Russia has never been represented at the highest level. In 2011 then-president Dmitri Medvedev did not go to EAS held in Indonesia; in 2012 Putin chose not to travel to Phnom Penh (Cambodia). And now we have another no-show: Russia’s representation was lowered to the level of FM Sergey Lavrov.

 

It should come as no surprise that another nonappearance by the Russian leader has caused some resentment in ASEAN countries who view themselves as EAS’s driving force. According to a Southeast Asian diplomat, Putin's absence “just reflects how Russia looks at ASEAN–that it doesn't give much weight to ASEAN.[1]

 

To be sure, Putin not coming to EAS meetings contradicts multiple statements by the Kremlin itself which proclaim the Asia-Pacific a major  priority of Russian foreign policy. However, Russia’s reduced representation in EAS does make some sense. EAS is above all a forum dedicated to Asia-Pacific security. Yet it seems that, in the Asia-Pacific there are currently no security problems posing direct and serious risks to Russia, at least in the short-to-medium term. Moreover, Russia has relatively little political and military leverage over the region’s strategic situation. If so, why spend the national leader’s precious time attending a gathering overseas, while he has to deal with quite a few pressing problems at home.

 

Intentionally or inadvertently, through its reduced representation, Russia is sending a signal that it is not (yet?) willing to play a pro-active political and strategic role in the Asia-Pacific. One reason is that, in this region, unlike Europe, Central Asia or, to some extent, the Middle East, Moscow has no post-imperial spheres of influence that it must fight for.

 

Russia’s chief interest in the Asia-Pacific today lies in economics rather than security. That is why Putin (as well as Medvedev during his presidential tenure) have not missed a single APEC summit, the Asia-Pacific’s main economic forum. [2]

 

Another thing to bear in mind is that the EAS agenda now has sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea as one of its top items. The competing claims are between China and a few ASEAN states, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines. Without a direct stake in the South China Sea, Moscow is clearly not interested in backing any one party in the dispute. If it did, it would risk spoiling relations with the other contending party. The wisest course of action, then, is to pursue diplomatic neutrality. For this, the foreign minister representation appears to be the most appropriate.

 

Artyom Lukin is Associate Professor of International Relations and Deputy Director for Research at the School of Regional and International Studies, Far Eastern Federal University (Vladivostok, Russia). Email: artlukin@mail.ru



[1] Putin is latest Asia summit no-show to raise eyebrows. AFP, 9 October 2013. http://www.rappler.com/world/regions/asia-pacific/40968-putin-east-asia-summit

[2]  The only exception was APEC Leaders’ meeting at the Mexican Los Cabos in 2002, which Putin did not attend due to a major terrorist attack in Moscow. .

 

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