Can U.S.-Iran Peace Framework redefine Middle Eastern Security?

The U.S.-Iranian relationship has been antagonistic, marked by hostility, sanctions, proxy wars and distrust for over four decades. The conflict between Washington and Tehran has been a determining force in Middle Eastern strategy, ever since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, and right up to the nuclear standoffs of the twenty first century. However, recent talks about a new U.S.-Iran peace deal raise a very real possibility of a major geopolitical pivot that could change the course of bilateral relations, regional security as well as global energy security.

Source: Reuters

Such a framework has more than a symbolic value. It is more than just a normalization of relations between two historic enemies. It is a new understanding that the price of a continuous war is not affordable for both the parties. Political instability, proxy wars, disrupted energy markets, and economic development resource diversion have been due to strategic competition for years. Thus seeking a diplomatic solution demonstrates that the political strategy of cooperation, albeit at a reduced level, might be more valuable than continuing the conflict.

Today the Middle East is in a crucial stage. This region is undergoing unprecedented changes, such as the economic diversification strategy, technological modernization and increased attempts by regional powers to defuse tensions through the means of diplomacy. The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023 proved that a prolonged process of dialogue can help defuse some of the most entrenched rivalries. Such a U.S.-Iran arrangement would take this momentum forward and it promises to create positive momentum for conflict resolution in the region.

This deal's first benefit would be regional stability. Over the years, the competition between Washington and Tehran has manifested itself in the form of wars in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere. A diplomatic approach would not automatically put an end to these conflicts, but it could decrease the temptation to continue to escalate and provide space for confidence-building measures. Aided by easing tensions between the two powers, there would be fewer chances for military conflict, and more room for political negotiations in the areas of regional conflict.

The world energy security implications are even greater. The Middle East continues to be a focal point for international energy markets, with one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints being the Strait of Hormuz. The periodic conflicts between Iran have brought about over the years the fears of oil supply interruptions and energy price volatility. A stable diplomatic relationship will help to alleviate uncertainty in international markets, spark investor confidence and add predictability to energy flows. The world economy is still sensitive to geopolitical changes, and with that stability, welcomes by both producers and consumers of energy, would be an asset.

However, there is a need for realism tempered with optimism. The past relations between the United States and Iran has been marked by the unsuccessful implementation of initiatives, broken agreements, and continued mistrust. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a case in point of how fragile diplomatic moves are when there is no political consensus. Any new arrangement will need to be well anchored in terms of verification, political will of both countries, and institutional protection to ensure its continuity through leadership changes and domestic political pressures in both nations.

In addition, any agreement will be carefully reviewed by regional stakeholders. Gulf states, Israel and others have real security concerns that must be addressed if a permanent regional peace is to be achieved. Failing to involve pivotal actors in the diplomatic process could set up other areas of instability even as others are defused. Thus, any successful framework will have to become a wider regional security dialogue and include the interests and concerns of all relevant parties.

There is some strategic importance for countries like Pakistan to see U.S.-Iran ties improve. Regional stability is of paramount significance to Pakistan because of its geographic location, economic interests and energy needs. Conflict resolution and peace building efforts could lead to the better connectivity of the region, enhance trade corridors and provide new possibilities for economic cooperation. More significantly a stable Middle East would help to create a more predictable region, a cornerstone for the states that have long suffered the effects of geopolitical competition.

The new U.S.-Iran peace deal, then, should be considered as a first step and not a final deal. It is only when it is put into practice, when individuals trust other individuals and when everyone agrees to the importance of stable solutions over short-term political agendas that it will be successful in the end. The skepticism is entirely justified, but so too is it to deny that progress is possible, in the face of the new strategic context in the modern Middle East.

The actual test is now yet to come. This concept, if followed and nourished by regional actors, would represent a new era in the Middle East's geopolitics—not one of conflict but use of smart diplomacy. Such a change would be a regional success, but also a major step toward peace and security around the world in a time of heightened global uncertainty.