Analyzing Uzbekistan’s Role in the Development of the Greater Eurasian Partnership

The Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) is a regional framework proposed by President Vladimir Putin in 2015, that aims to foster economic and geopolitical integration across Eurasia. Eurasia which is envisioned by Russia as a distinct geopolitical and civilizational space, wherein Central Asia is located as an important region in Moscow’s neighborhood. As connectivity is one of the major features of this partnership, it envisions deeper connectivity among major regional players, like China, Russia, India and Central Asian states, to promote trade and economic prosperity. Historically, the Silk Road served as the backbone of Eurasian connectivity, facilitating economic and cultural exchange between East and West. Between the ninth and thirteenth centuries, Central Asia thrived in a golden age, establishing itself as a vital hub for global trade and economic growth. In the contemporary era, renewed infrastructure projects and economic corridors are reviving this ancient trade network, reinforcing regional cooperation.

The Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) is a regional framework proposed by President Vladimir Putin in 2015, that aims to foster economic and geopolitical integration across Eurasia. Eurasia which is envisioned by Russia as a distinct geopolitical and civilizational space, wherein Central Asia is located as an important region in Moscow’s neighborhood. As connectivity is one of the major features of this partnership, it envisions deeper connectivity among major regional players, like China, Russia, India and Central Asian states, to promote trade and economic prosperity. Historically, the Silk Road served as the backbone of Eurasian connectivity, facilitating economic and cultural exchange between East and West. Between the ninth and thirteenth centuries, Central Asia thrived in a golden age, establishing itself as a vital hub for global trade and economic growth. In the contemporary era, renewed infrastructure projects and economic corridors are reviving this ancient trade network, reinforcing regional cooperation.

Institutionally, Uzbekistan has the potential to occupy a unique position within Eurasia's evolving architecture. As an observer in the EAEU, it can engage simultaneously with multiple integration frameworks without becoming overly dependent on any single one. Its observer status in the EAEU has the potential for Uzbekistan to benefit from regulatory dialogue, trade facilitation, and labor mobility while avoiding the policy constraints associated with full membership. This calibrated approach reflects the prospects a broader strategy of strategic hedging, whereby Tashkent could diversify its economic partnerships across Russia, China, the European Union, Turkey, the Gulf states, and South Asia. Such flexibility would not only enhance Uzbekistan's strategic autonomy but also aligns it with the GEP's broader objective of fostering an interconnected and multipolar Eurasian order.

Introduction

The Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) is a regional framework proposed by President Vladimir Putin in 2015, that aims to foster economic and geopolitical integration across Eurasia. Eurasia which is envisioned by Russia as a distinct geopolitical and civilizational space, wherein Central Asia is located as an important region in Moscow’s neighborhood. As connectivity is one of the major features of this partnership, it envisions deeper connectivity among major regional players, like China, Russia, India and Central Asian states, to promote trade and economic prosperity. Historically, the Silk Road served as the backbone of Eurasian connectivity, facilitating economic and cultural exchange between East and West. Between the ninth and thirteenth centuries, Central Asia thrived in a golden age, establishing itself as a vital hub for global trade and economic growth. In the contemporary era, renewed infrastructure projects and economic corridors are reviving this ancient trade network, reinforcing regional cooperation.

Central Asia stands at the heart of Eurasia, often depicted as the epicenter of civilizations. Halford Mackinder’s Heartland theory famously positioned Central Asia as the geographical pivot of history. Modern global infrastructure initiatives have transformed this landlocked region into a vital transit hub, allowing it to circumvent traditional maritime chokepoints and connect major economic powers across Eurasia.

Uzbekistan has the potential to be at the heart of Central Asia's renewed push for regional integration. As the region's most populous country, with more than 39 million people, and the only state bordering all other Central Asian republics as well as Afghanistan, it occupies a possible key geographic position. This potential as a strategic location is accompanied by the economic reforms Uzbekistan experienced, starting in 2017. As an potential key player in the GEP, Uzbekistan can help enhance trade routes and integrate its economy with Eurasian countries.

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Historical Context

Historically, Uzbekistan has been seen to play a role as a key hub in the Old Silk Road trade, with cities such as Samarkand, Bukhara, and Khiva serving as major commercial and cultural centers. The importance of Uzbekistan, as well as other countries, on the Silk Route has been noted by several experts. Nirmala Joshi highlights Uzbekistan’s historical and growing contemporary role as a critical geopolitical “anchor” of Central Asia, by acting as a balance of power in the region, possibly preventing any actor’s dominance and ensuring Eurasian stability.

Uzbek cities helped facilitate the exchange of goods, ideas, and technologies among China, the Middle East, and Europe, fostering economic and intellectual connectivity. As described by UNESCO, Uzbekistan, being at the crossroads of civilizations, has helped play a role in the diffusion of religious, artistic, and scientific knowledge along the Silk Road.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan pursued a cautious economic transition, prioritizing state-led development, import substitution, and self-reliance under President Islam Karimov. Unlike other post-Soviet states that embraced rapid liberalization, Uzbekistan maintained strong state control over strategic sectors, restricted currency convertibility, and limited foreign investment.

Since 2016, under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan has shifted towards market-oriented reforms, liberalizing foreign exchange, improving the investment climate, and strengthening regional economic cooperation. Today, connectivity initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have become important drivers of infrastructure development, while the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) provides another framework for regional economic engagement. However, Uzbekistan’s observer status in the EAEU reflects its continued preference for a flexible, multi-vector approach to external economic partnerships.

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Uzbekistan’s Role in the Greater Eurasian Partnership

Uzbekistan's potential significance within the GEP extends beyond its geographical location. Increasingly, it has the opportunity to emerge as a bridge between competing regional initiatives and possibly facilitate economic integration across Eurasia. While Russia envisions the GEP as a broad framework linking institutions such as EAEU, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and BRI, Uzbekistan seeks to leverage each of these platforms to maximize economic opportunities. This pragmatic engagement has enabled Tashkent to position itself as prospective driver of regional connectivity.

Connectivity remains central to Uzbekistan's regional ambitions. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, the construction of which formally commenced in 2024, is expected to significantly shorten freight transit between western China and Europe while reducing dependence on existing northern routes through Kazakhstan. Likewise, Uzbekistan continues to champion the Trans-Afghan Railway, linking Termez to Pakistan's seaports via Mazar-i-Sharif and Kabul, which would provide Central Asia with direct access to the Arabian Sea. Together, these corridors may prove to complement broader Eurasian transport networks, which may enhance supply chain diversification across the continent. Rather than functioning as isolated infrastructure projects, they can help reinforce Uzbekistan's ambitions of becoming a possible key logistics hub, connecting East Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, and Europe.

The growing prospective strategic importance of Termez illustrates that Uzbekistan's prospective contribution to the Greater Eurasian Partnership may extend beyond east-west connectivity. In fact, it holds the promise of positioning the country as a critical gateway for integrating Afghanistan and South Asia into wider Eurasian economic networks in the future. As proof, in a recent Uzbekistan-Russia meeting in Termez, an increased emphasis was placed on modernizing northern routes and developing a southern route through Afghanistan toward ports on the Indian Ocean.

Recently, Uzbekistan has been increasingly attempting to assume a more proactive regional leadership role. Unlike the previous era, Tashkent has started to prioritize cooperation with its Central Asian neighbors through regular Consultative Meetings of Central Asian Heads of State, improved border management, and attempts at greater coordination on trade and transport. These initiatives have helped revive intra-regional cooperation, and may create favorable conditions for future cross-border commerce and regional value chains.

Institutionally, Uzbekistan has the potential to occupy a unique position within Eurasia's evolving architecture. As an observer in the EAEU, it can engage simultaneously with multiple integration frameworks without becoming overly dependent on any single one. Its observer status in the EAEU has the potential for Uzbekistan to benefit from regulatory dialogue, trade facilitation, and labor mobility while avoiding the policy constraints associated with full membership. This calibrated approach reflects the prospects a broader strategy of strategic hedging, whereby Tashkent could diversify its economic partnerships across Russia, China, the European Union, Turkey, the Gulf states, and South Asia. Such flexibility would not only enhance Uzbekistan's strategic autonomy but also aligns it with the GEP's broader objective of fostering an interconnected and multipolar Eurasian order.

Security concerns may constitute another important dimension of Uzbekistan's possible contribution to the GEP. Sustainable connectivity across Eurasia depends upon stability, particularly in Afghanistan, which remains critical to several proposed transport corridors. Recognizing this linkage, Uzbekistan has shown an interest in supporting Afghanistan's economic integration through electricity exports, railway proposals, and trade facilitation initiatives, and could further expand on this interest.

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Challenges and Future Prospects

Despite its growing potential to be a key player in the Greater Eurasian Partnership, Uzbekistan faces several strategic dilemmas. While it has held observer status in EAEU since 2020, Tashkent has refrained from seeking full membership, prioritizing accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) before undertaking deeper regional commitments. As geopolitical rivalries intensify and regional connectivity initiatives increasingly overlap, Uzbekistan's challenge lies in leveraging competing opportunities without becoming overly dependent on any single external power, such as China, for trade corridor development.

Uzbekistan’s potential for a foreign policy transformation could play a pivotal role in reshaping Central Asia’s regional dynamics. By adopting a pragmatic approach of "good neighborliness," Tashkent has the potential to actively foster regional cooperation through compromises on border disputes and water-sharing agreements, paving the way for greater stability. This plausible diplomatic shift, driven by strong political will, could help overcome longstanding tensions and reinforce Uzbekistan’s role as a key player in Greater Eurasia.

Uzbekistan's strategic location, economic reforms, and proactive regional diplomacy hold the potential to position it as a prospective pivotal actor in the evolving Greater Eurasian Partnership. By reviving its historic role as a connectivity hub along the Silk Road, Tashkent could contribute to stronger economic integration across Central Asia and beyond. However, the success of this vision will depend on Uzbekistan's ability to sustain its multi-vector foreign policy, balance competing geopolitical interests, and deepen domestic economic reforms. If it successfully navigates these challenges, Uzbekistan could be well placed to emerge not merely as a possible transit corridor but as a prospective key actor of a more connected, resilient, and multipolar Eurasian order.