Will Nationalism Disappear in 100 years' time?

Nationalism, which during the Soviet Union period was defined in no other terms than a "relic of capitalism", remains a permanent feature of human society. New nations have emerged in new states, which not are only repeating the way of the "old" European nations, but also adding a Muslim twist on nationalist ideas of the past. At the same time the old pan-national movements that set out to establish enormous state entities are again on the rise. In the future, Russia is certain to serve as a battleground of ideas between the old and new nationalist movements.

Nationalism, which during the Soviet Union period was defined in no other terms than a "relic of capitalism", remains a permanent feature of human society. New nations have emerged in new states, which not are only repeating the way of the "old" European nations, but also adding a Muslim twist on nationalist ideas of the past. At the same time the old pan-national movements that set out to establish enormous state entities are again on the rise. In the future, Russia is certain to serve as a battleground of ideas between the old and new nationalist movements.

The term "nationalism" in the USSR as a rule had a negative connotation. At that time nationalism was understood as an "ideology and policy that professed national isolation and exclusiveness, the mistrust of other nations and interethnic animosity". According to Marxist theory, capitalism was to blame for the emergence of nationalism and the establishment of national states as a system that defended itself against the expansion of alien owners and alien markets. Marxists made an exception only for the "nationalism of oppressed nations", which in their view required support during their fight for national liberation.

Russian Marxists believed that with the disappearance of national borders, which for centuries had divided populations, the great brotherhood of peoples would come to replace nations. However, not only the communists believed in the imminent disappearance of nations and, accordingly, nationalism. There were high expectations that supra-national human communities and relevant public consciousness would emerge though the advent of globalization.

Nevertheless, nationalism has not vanished, and the very process of the establishment of a common European nation, for example, has not made nations or nationalism disappear.

Photo: one-europe.info

At present, nationalism is transforming more and more into a form of group self-identification, a defensive reflex of an ethnos growing stronger under threat of being diluted within a greater community – universal, European or otherwise. This form of "defensive nationalism" is most likely to be maintained in the arsenal of the national movements for the future.

European Union and nationalism

When the European Union was established and national borders disappeared, allowing for extensive population movements across Europe, theoretically ethnic-cultural walls would fall as well. However, national identity, which is the basis of nationalism as such, not only did not disappear but even acquired new features. State institutions in the EU are becoming more and more fragmented, which continues to influence domestic politics from the supranational perspective.

National minorities have begun to attack the centers of nation-states, taking advantage of their weakening administrative power. They are demanding that their national rights be expanded and are demonstrating a readiness to contribute to the political fragmentation of these states. We should expect that these processes should not only become more intensive (for example, in Spain, the UK and Belgium), but also will cause other regions to demand the widening of their own national rights and limitations on the power of the centrally established nation-states.

It is possible that aspirations for national autonomy will arise among the "new" Germans, French, Dutch, and Brits, represented by the new ethnic religious minorities: the "European" Turks, Arabs, Pakistanis and Africans. The consolidation of these movements in this new environment will develop mainly along ethnic-religious lines with a new Islamic accent. The purely religious basis of consolidation of the new European communities will gradually give way to a mixture of religion and nationalism, which has never been typical for traditional Islam. Moreover, there will be growing fragmentation within political and social organizations and movements that represent the interests of the ethnic-religious associations of these new Europeans. These associations will be in increasing demand by the old, traditional European political parties which to a greater extent will have to rely on the votes of their "new" compatriots.

These processes should make this new nationalism flourish. On the one hand, various ethnic-religious doctrines of the "new Europeans" will emerge and, on the other hand, the "defensive" nationalism of the "old Europeans" will become increasingly aggravated due to the consolidation of the new European ethnic communities. This type of nationalism will acquire characteristics similar to National Socialism in pre-war Germany, but adapted to modern achievements in science and technology. Therefore, the development of new national defensive doctrines will more likely acquire a racist character and lead to the establishment of international political associations, similar to the "Brown International," on the basis of nationalist parties and movements of Europe. Today, such associations are still waiting for theorists who have time to "brush off the dust" from the old books of British theorists of racism and revive the "works" of German theorists who worked for the A. Rosenberg agency, despite the official ban on racist and national socialism propaganda in most European countries.

Photo: voty.com
Demonstration in Barcelona, February 16, 2006

As a result, nationalists, or more precisely ultra-national associations, will inevitably consolidate across Europe. They will receive a significant percentage of votes during democratic elections and then unite into radical multi-national parties with a strong ultra-nationalist flavor, possibly transforming into outright racism.

The arrival to power of the "Nationalist International" factions in some countries and regions will have important political consequences in European countries for decades to come.

The increasing popularity of nationalist ideas in the public conscience, philosophy and this perception of the world will reinforce the image of an enemy, an inevitable consequences of any nationalist project. The further development of the West will for many years depend on attempts to address the problem of civilizational differences within the common European area. These problems are primarily connected to European Muslim communities which have grown in number and have increased their influence in local as well as national European politics.

Islam and Nationalism

Nationalist ideas from the Islamic World are of particular interest. A significant percentage of Muslim communities have already abandoned attempts to construct their new national doctrines on the basis of a mix of Islam and nationalism as a result of theoretical inconsistencies between the two philosophies. Attempts to create a symbiosis of nationalism and Islam are still being pursued in the ideas of the pan-Turkism – i.e. the establishment of a Turkic State from the Adriatic to the Pacific (the "Great Turan"), a pan-Turanism – as the unity of the "Turan peoples", or the peoples of the Urals and Altai language family; and a later Turkism combined with strong pan-Turkic trends.

All these ideas and doctrines have recognized Islam as one of the main elements of the "Turkic Nation" which combines nationalism and religion. Later, at the peak of the revolutionary upsurge during the first quarter of the 20th century, new ethnic-religious schools of public thought emerged. These were the result of attempts to combine ethnic-religious doctrines with ideas of social equality. "Turkic communists" in Soviet Russia began developing ideas of a future State based on a combination of Islam and Socialism.

Photo: europeanbusinessreview.com
The idea of creating a "Great Turan" State that
for centuries has been tempting the hearts and
minds of some part of the Turkish ruling elite,
faces the same obstacles that will inevitably
arise should they launch the already known or
new Eurasian projects

The search for foundations of a new State organization continued throughout the 20th century. Attempts were made to create the United Arab Republic on the basis of Islam and nationalism – an idea which later failed.

This does not imply, however, that the ideas of unification will not return again. It is very likely that new charismatic leaders will inevitably emerge in the Arab East, capable of uniting countries and peoples under the banner of pan-Arabism. The idea of an Arab-Muslim area as a pivot to the entire Islamic world continues to excite the minds of Arab Muslims. This idea would most likely be taken up either by leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood or by the recently ascendant ‘unifiers’ – the proponents of the Salafist ideas who profess a return to a "pure Islam" that associates Islam with social equality. Meanwhile, nationalism in Arab communities will continue to develop, repeating the basic logic of the evolution of social conscience. Emerging national markets in the Arab and African countries will continue to prevent the formation of supra-national state associations. This will lead to the inevitable failure of pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism, their attempts to build the new societies and the triumph of the ideas of supra-national union of states and peoples.

However, the world of Islam is already in the midst of a losing streak of instability. The struggle for domination between the Sunni and Shiite leaders in the Muslim Ummah will inevitably crush Iran's attempts to become the leader of an all-Muslim world. It is also to be expected that through their attempts to undermine the statehood of Iran, opponents of the Iranian regime, both in the West and among the Sunni leaders, will make a stake on the return of Persian nationalism on the one hand and the support of the national minorities’ movements (Azerbaijani, Turkmen, Kurds, Arabs, and Baluchi) on the other.

Nationalism and Russia

Photo: REUTERS / Johannes Eisele
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Among all holistic nationalist movements and doctrines, pan-Turkism appears to be the most tenacious and long-standing idea for the future development of philosophic foundations of nationalist and ethnic-religious doctrines. Over the next several decades, Russia will again serve as a battleground for this idea – not only in Russia's Turkic and Turkic-Muslim regions but also in metropolitan areas where the Central Asian Turkic Muslims slowly keep on arriving.

It appears that nationalism of “small-numbered” peoples’ or its “Great Russian” version in its various manifestations will depend on specific domestic and foreign political circumstances or the progress or stagnation in national economic and social development. The optimists (for example, Alexander Dugin) strongly believe that Russia will transform into a Eurasian Union – a big land expanse that encompasses the vast territories of the post-Soviet Republics, pivoted around the Russian heartland as an independent actor in the multi-polar world.

In spite of the fascinating optimistic predictions offered by A.Dugin, it does not seem that the Russian state can re-create some sort of a new empire. Attempts to implement this scenario will inevitably confront counter-measures by Europe and the "Washington Obkom". It is not without reason that the "sworn friend" of Russia, Zbigniew Brzezinski, wrote back in the 1980s that the overall control of the Eurasian continent is now a prerequisite for global domination. Naturally, he tries to substantiate U.S. aspirations for this domination.

However, it is more important to take into account modern social and economic realities – i.e. the market that the domestic liberals are trying so hard to achieve. Under current market relations, macro-states are initially costly and unprofitable by definition and the resources of Russia would hardly afford a kind of a new "brotherhood of the Eurasian peoples".

There is also another no less important impediment to the "Big Eurasia". It is obvious that the stronger and firmly established national elites of the former Soviet Republics will not agree to the recreation of a former powerful State, or allow the new "Big Brother" to take root on their national soil. This is also true for another "Eurasian project" that Turkey is prepared to follow – the pan-Turkic project. The idea of creating a "Great Turan" State that for centuries has been tempting the hearts and minds of some part of the Turkish ruling elite, faces the same obstacles that will inevitably arise should they launch the already known or new Eurasian projects.

However, the pan-Turkic project as well as the idea of "Eurasianism or Neo-Eurasianism" will not disappear and will continue to excite the hearts and minds of their followers. The two competing projects of "macro-nationalism" will be kept in the ideological arsenal of the new generations of policy-makers and philosophers. Therefore, during many decades to come, the Russian authorities will have to confront the pan-Turkic project and various Islamic and nationalist-Islamic ideas with something more international and more oriented towards the Russian system of values, based on the co-existence of many nations, religious denominations and national cultures. In this respect, the idea of an Eurasian community based on the equitable co-existence of a variety of nations, religions and cultures, will most likely remain in the arsenal of a "unification national project" of the modern Russia.

Prospects and solutions

Is it possible to address once and for all the problems between nations and ethnic groups within these nations? Is it possible to thus achieve interethnic peace and concordance by adapting the basic rules of the game stipulated by laws or customary tradition based on mutual respect and recognition of the rights of "small-numbered" peoples and concessions by the "bigger" nations? The experience of mankind shows that this is impossible. The pace of development of the nations, peoples, ethnic groups and tribes provides clear evidence for a well-established truth: the process of development is indefinite and the search for national identity is a repeating and continuing process.

This leads to an inevitable conclusion: nothing can be decided once and for all. We must continue to look for new approaches and new solutions in light of the evolving requirements of existence and development of the ethnos. Losing the dynamism in reforming national relations will bring about contradictions that can actually set off an "explosion" and bloodshed.

There are no guarantees today that in one hundred years’ time mankind will learn to avoid mistakes in addressing national problems. The blind sights of nationalist perceptions, which quite often prevent us from seeing these problems as they really are, provoke and will provoke regular explosions in national relations in the future.