Moldova: As Pavel Filip Forms Cabinet, the Opposition Unites in Protest
Протесты в Кишинёве, 24 января 2016 г.
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Political scientist, Moldova, RIAC expert
The clash of Russian and Western geopolitical vectors has generated a direct confrontation between the new government of Moldova and heterogeneous opposition. In mid-January 2016, there was formed a parliamentary majority led by Marian Lupa’s and Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM), whose views differ fundamentally from the position of so far unregistered right-wing Dignity and Truth (DA) Civil Platform, the parliamentary Socialist Party of Igor Dodon, and currently not in parliament Renato Usatii’s Our Party “Partidul Nostru” (PN).
The clash of Russian and Western geopolitical vectors has generated a direct confrontation between the new government of Moldova and heterogeneous opposition. In mid-January 2016, there was formed a parliamentary majority led by Marian Lupa’s and Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM), whose views differ fundamentally from the position of so far unregistered right-wing Dignity and Truth (DA) Civil Platform, the parliamentary Socialist Party of Igor Dodon, and currently not in parliament Renato Usatii’s Our Party “Partidul Nostru” (PN).
Both political alliances emerged as a result of the Democratic Party’s successful enough attempt to form a parliamentary majority: on January 20, 57 of 101 members of parliament voted in favor of Pavel Filip’s cabinet. The new prime minister is a member of the Democratic Party and a close associate of Vlad Plahotniuc, a famous Moldovan politician and businessman. This fact afforded the opposition ground for raising the issue of the puppet nature of the new cabinet. At the same time, it should be noted that Vlad Plahotniuc, try as he would, failed to get the mandate of prime minister, as President Nikolae Timofti declined his candidacy. The newly formed parliamentary majority is extremely patchy and includes two parties, namely Democrats and Liberals, two breakaway groups of the Communists and the Liberal Democrats, as well as certain independent deputies.
The protest movement that emerged against the backdrop of the vote in Parliament on January 20 consists of opposing political trends, whose geo-political positions cancel each other out. On the one hand, the protest movement includes two pro-Russian parties: the Party of Socialists and Our Party. Notwithstanding their fierce competition for the former electorate of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, they have united to overthrow the declared enemy, that is, the Democratic Party and Vlad Plahotniuc. On the other hand, they were joined by the pro-European DA Civil Platform, which gradually turns into a party, aimed at uniting the right electorate, disoriented by Vlad Filat’s arrest. Although the nature of this alliance is temporary, the union of such polar movements is unlikely to readily secure the backing of the Moldovan electorate. This is particularly true of the right wing supporters, for whom any truce with their deadly enemies is entirely unacceptable. This explains the decline in the number of participants of protest actions and the intensified criticism of the united opposition, which recently presented the authorities with an ultimatum. Their main demand is to dissolve parliament and to set a date for early elections.
The current political standoff between the government and the opposition is over two main issues. On the one hand, the government insists on the need to maintain stability in the country and rejects any kind of the “maydan scenario,” especially amidst the ongoing profound economic crisis and suspension of external financing. Attempts have been made to strengthen the position of the formed cabinet of ministers, which has already promised to lower energy prices and resume negotiations with the IMF. On the other hand, following the pattern of the Ukrainian revolution, the opposition insists on prioritizing elimination of corruption and oligarchy, personified by Vlad Plahotniuc, whose fault for the banking system ruin has not so far been susceptible of proof, and the one for assuming complete control over the judicial system appears to be somewhat more substantiated. Demanding early elections, the opposition disregards possible risks of destabilization, and leaves open the possibility of following the Ukrainian scenario in Moldova for the sake of dismantling the “Plahotniuc’s system.”
In reality, the situation is much more complex, since the confrontation takes place amidst conflicting interests of the West and Russia. Not being fond of Vlad Plahotniuc, Western politicians have nevertheless openly voiced support for Pavel Filip’s cabinet. President of Romania Klaus Iohannis, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland urged to support the new government of Moldova. Importantly, in contrast to Ukraine, the Western support has not automatically put the civil society on the side of the majority alliance. The criticism of the new Moldovan government is gradually decreasing in intensity: the pro-Western forces are aware that a questionable power is still better than the rise to power of the left-wing forces.
As to the opposite side, the Russian Foreign Ministry revealed that it monitored the situation in Moldova closely, and President Vladimir Putin put the issue of Moldova on the agenda of the Security Council meeting. At the same time, severe criticism of power by the pro-Russian parties and their numerous acts of protests testify to the revolutionary stance of the opposition. This accounts for the uncompromising nature of their demands. DA Civil Platform has already supported the demand to freeze the Euro-integration of Moldova for a specified period, namely for one or two years. At that, both pro-Russian parties may not be interested in holding early parliamentary elections, as the Socialists may yield the palm to Renato Usatii, who is new in politics and, perhaps, may not be yet ready to take responsibility for governing the country.
Thousands of people in a joint protest rally on Sunday demanded as an ultimatum to hold early election, which contradicts the Constitution: in conformity with the law, the Parliament of Moldova cannot get dissolved at its own will. The protesters gave the authorities four days. Should the authorities fail to meet the demands, the protesters threatened to block the main roads of the country. However, these statements notwithstanding, the pressure on the government seems to be slackening. Many supporters of the pro-European forces have begun to display reluctance to participate in joint actions with the pro-Russian opposition, as they consider the oligarchic, but pro-European power to be the lesser of two evils. Although the chapter on the issue is not yet closed, the protracted political crisis in Moldova, which began in September 2015, is, most likely, coming to a close.
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