NATO Summit: Initial Results

The NATO Summit that took place in Warsaw on July 8–9, 2016, twenty-five years after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, was never going to bring about any kind of political or diplomatic intrigue: NATO is returning to its roots, that is, strengthening collective defence on the eastern borders. Instead of the proposed development of strategic partnership cooperation, NATO has swung back to strategic competition, according to which Russia is seen as a major – and long-term – challenge.

The NATO Summit that took place in Warsaw on July 8–9, 2016, twenty-five years after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, was never going to bring about any kind of political or diplomatic intrigue: NATO is returning to its roots, that is, strengthening collective defence on the eastern borders, but in its expanded, 28-member form.

The balance between deterrence and cooperation in NATO–Russia relations established in Lisbon in November 2010 within the framework of the NATO–Russia Council has been completely destroyed as a result of the Ukrainian crisis. Instead of the proposed development of strategic partnership cooperation, NATO has swung back to strategic competition, according to which Russia is seen as a major – and long-term – challenge. It might not be the Cold War, but alarmism that “the Russians are coming” is once again prevalent in Europe. Poland and the Baltic appealed to NATO to protect them from possible military aggression and strengthen collective security guarantees. As a result, it was decided to deploy four multinational NATO battalions totalling 4,000 troops. In addition, agreements have been reached to strengthen NATO’s presence in Southeast Europe (in Romania and on the Black Sea), and its military activity has been overhauled in the wake of the threat from Russia – the combat training programme has been reformatted and the scale of exercises increased.

 

The Communiqué essentially fixes previously agreed decisions, but does not give a clear indication as to the main directions of NATO’s evolution going forward.

The Warsaw Summit Communiqué is unprecedented in terms of its size, with 139 points summarizing NATO’s achievements and objectives, as well as the main areas of its activity – to modernize the collective system of security and deterrence (primarily in response to Russia’s “destabilizing” activities); “projecting stability” beyond the Euro-Atlantic region (towards the East and the South), including through a system of targeted partnerships; and strengthening transatlantic ties and EU–NATO relations.

The Communiqué essentially fixes previously agreed decisions, but does not give a clear indication as to the main directions of NATO’s evolution going forward.

In fact, the decisions made at the Summit define the existing, but rather unstable, status quo within NATO. And they do not answer the multitude of questions as to exactly how the alliance proposes to implement these decisions – especially within the context of real and growing instability (not connected with the “official” threat from Russia): the situation in the Middle East, Islamic State, Afghanistan and the balance of powers within NATO; as well as within the context of Brexit, the situation in the conflict zones in the “crossover space” between the East and the West, etc. It is likely that NATO and Russia will discuss these problems at the ambassadorial meeting of the NATO–Russia Council scheduled for July 13. However, as the Warsaw Summit results have proved, they will be discussed within the context of reducing risks and mutual harm, as there is practically no positive agenda. The Minsk Agreements on the the Ukrainian crisis settlement will be the major topic that determines political and diplomatic prospects for NATO–Russia relations. But the parties have clearly opposing stances on this issue as well, since Moscow categorically refuses to take responsibility for ensuring the Agreements are implemented, which is what the West is demanding.