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Cornel Ciurea

Political scientist, Moldova, RIAC expert

Moldova’s pro-European parties collected more than 50 per cent of the votes in last Sunday’s parliamentary elections, meaning that they now have good chance of forming a ruling coalition government. Thus, Moldova is likely to continue its gradual movement towards Europe, despite the fact that the country little deserves it following what can only be termed gross manipulation of the electoral process.

 Moldova’s pro-European parties collected more than 50 per cent of the votes in last Sunday’s parliamentary elections, meaning that they now have good chance of forming a ruling coalition government. With 87 per cent of the votes counted, the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova received 19.3 per cent of the votes; the Democratic Party of Moldova garnered 15.76 per cent; and the Liberal Party picked up 9.38 per cent. Together, they secured around 54 per cent of the seats available. The two pro-Russian parties that passed the electoral threshold of 6 per cent were the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), with 21.6 per cent of the votes, and the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, which received 17.83 per cent of the votes. They will occupy 46 per cent of the seats in parliament.

Thus, Moldova is likely to continue its gradual movement towards Europe, despite the fact that the country little deserves it following what can only be termed gross manipulation of the electoral process.

Artificial Results

The pro-European majority that has emerged as a result of the election is more to do with arithmetics rather than with the attitudes of the Moldovan people that turned out to vote on November 30, 2014. We can say that this is a case where political engineering and the exclusion of a number of candidates from the running completely changed the balance of power. We cannot ignore the fact that the Communist Reformist Party of Moldova, which was hastily put together and registered this summer, received 5 per cent of the vote and did not get a seat in parliament. These votes were intended for Vladimir Voronin’s Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, but were given to the Communist Reformist Party by mistake. As a result, the pro-Russian party, and Vladimir Voronin’s party in particular, lost out on 5 per cent of the votes, dramatically shifting the balance in favour of a possible Left alliance.

What is more, the exclusion on the eve of the election of Renato Usatii’s pro-Russian populist party Rodina also had an indirect effect on the strengthened pro-European position, as Usatii urged his supporters to spoil their ballot papers by voting for the now illegitimate party. Consequently, around 4 per cent of the votes (from the invalid ballots) will be redistributed among the parties in parliament.

What will happen now?

There are two possible paths for the creation of a pro-European coalition. The first is a revival of the Alliance for European Integration in the form of a Liberal Democratic–Democratic–Liberal government. This scenario has two undeniable merits: 1) there would be no need to unite with the Communists (doing so would be construed as betraying the electorate); and 2) the main players – the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party – would not have to make significant concessions. Liberal Party leader Mihai Ghimpu cannot attach conditions to his participation in the alliance in the same way that the Party of Communists’ Vladimir Voronin can. The major drawback of this alliance is also obvious: its numerical advantage in parliament is too fragile to ensure a majority will be kept in the future.

Moldova is likely to continue its gradual movement towards Europe, despite the fact that the country little deserves it following what can only be termed gross manipulation of the electoral process.

The second path is an alliance between the Liberal Democrats, Democrats and Communists. During the election campaign, the general impression was that the Communists would in principle not be against forming a coalition government with the pro-European parties, thus distancing themselves from the hated Igor Dodon. Further still, observers considered this a far more likely possibility, given that the three pro-Russian parties would have a hard time garnering more than 50 per cent of the votes. But with the Liberal Party getting the requisite number of votes to be accepted into parliament, a “civil marriage” with the Communists is looking less and less attractive. Despite his bull-headed nature, the pro-unionist Liberal Party leader Mihai Ghimpu would seem to be a more accommodating and less irritating partner. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out the fact that the Liberals could set too high a price for their participation in the alliance, although the possibility of the Liberal Democrats and the Democrats switching to negotiations with the Communists would reduce their potential significantly.

An analysis of the Moldovan elections would not be complete without mentioning another noteworthy event, namely, the exclusion of the Rodina party leader Renato Usatii. This politically motivated action is likely to have far-reaching consequences. In order to get a grasp on these events, it is necessary to understand the course of the election campaign.

The Election Campaign

unimedia.info
The vote by districts. Red: Communist and
Socialist majorities. Blue: Majorities of
the tripartite governing coalition.

The election campaign pointed to the genesis of certain trends in the Moldovan political arena. The pro-European parties – the Liberal Democrats and Democrats in particular – entered into a tacit agreement on non-aggression (despite the mutual hostility). The Communist Party was also allowed on the television channels that supported the pro-European party, proving that it had come closer to the pro-European camp. Thus, one of main fissures in Moldovan politics – Democrats versus Communists – is gradually losing strength. The three main players are starting to join forces against new opponents, namely, Rodina and the Party of Socialists.

It is the Communists and Liberal Democrats that fear them the most. Vladimir Voronin recognized the danger posed by Igor Dodon, whose Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova was able to help convince the pro-Russian electorate to switch sides. Similarly, Voronin saw the growing threat presented by Renato Usatii, a person with whom he could never get along. At the same time, Vlad Filat considered Renato Usatii his mortal enemy, publicly disclosing his secrets. It was in this context that the idea of removing Usatii from the election campaign for receiving illegal financing was born. The idea was put into motion three days before the elections, leaving Usatii with little chance to organize his defence. The Democratic Party supported the decision, as the rapidity with which the dismissal of Usatii’s party was passed through the courts suggests (it is generally believed that the Democratic Party controls the courts).

At the same time, Voronin demanded an increase in the electoral threshold for the Party of Socialists, claiming that the list of socialists contained far too many names of representatives of other parties. In his opinion, this constituted an electoral bloc (according to Moldovan law, single parties must pass the 6 per cent threshold to be accepted into parliament; two-party blocs require 9 per cent of the votes; and three-party blocs 11 per cent). The Central Electoral Committee did not agree (the issue became moot after counting the number of votes won by the Party of Socialists). However, this was a clear attempt to remove the competition through not entirely legal means.

Consequences of Removing Renato Usatii from the Electoral Race

Оne of main fissures in Moldovan politics – Democrats versus Communists – is gradually losing strength. The three main players are starting to join forces against new opponents, namely, Rodina and the Party of Socialists.

The decision of the Central Electoral Committee to exclude Renato Usatii from the elections could significantly alter the political situation and Europe’s relations with Moldova. Usatii hurriedly left Moldova for Moscow the day before the elections, saying that he feared the authorities were going to arrest him. Nevertheless, he urged his supporters to take part in the elections and vote for the Rodina party anyway, seeing as though the name would still appear on balloting papers.

www.noi.md
We cannot ignore the fact that the Communist
Reformist Party of Moldova, which was hastily
put together and registered this summer,
received 5 per cent of the vote and did not get
a seat in parliament. These votes were intended
for Vladimir Voronin’s Party of Communists of
the Republic of Moldova, but were given to
the Communist Reformist Party by mistake.

While many supporters of the pro-European parties took to social networks to express their joy at the outlawing of Usatii’s party, the decision was still controversial. Throughout 2014, Usatii imported large undeclared sums of money into Moldova from Russia, claiming that he was a “successful immigrant worker”. Thus, it is not clear just how this financing qualified as wrongful.

It is against this background that everyone is waiting for the OSCE reports, which should give its final assessment. The assessment is likely to be negative, with will seriously undermine the legitimacy of the elections. From there, we can expect Usatii to appeal the decision to exclude the Rodina party from the elections in the European Court of Human Rights. And he will most likely win. It is doubtful that the election results will be overturned, however. In the meantime, the pro-European alliance will be formed, albeit with minimal credibility. On the strength of this, the European Union will probably try to gradually replace the pro-European Moldovan elite by promoting the relatively “pure politics” of politicians such as Iurie Leancă, Igor Corman and Natalia Gherman. This attempt to oust the elites will be met with resistance from the current oligarchs, which will lead to new political compromises.

According to a number of Moldovan analysts, the decision to remove Renato Usatii from the electoral race could work in Russia’s favour. The entire business has cast a shadow over Moldova’s democratic system, which plays into the hands of Russia, with which Moldova has had strained relations as of late. What is more, it has ensured that the Socialists passed the 6 per cent threshold by gifting them a significant portion of the votes that would have gone to Usatii. It should be noted that the Kremlin kept a worried eye on certain slippages of the Party of Socialists. Consequently, Renato Usatii was even asked to join forces with Igor Dodon, but the Rodina party leader refused.

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