Midterm Elections in the U.S.: Tired of Obama
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PhD in Politics, Center for Domestic Policy Research at RAS Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, RIAC Expert
Should the Republicans grab Congress at the approaching November 4 elections, the incumbent administration would effectively come to an end, with Barack Obama becoming a lame duck for the two remaining years of his term.
Should the Republicans grab Congress at the approaching November 4 elections, the incumbent administration would effectively come to an end, with Barack Obama becoming a lame duck for the two remaining years of his term.
No Exceptions
The U.S. midterm elections are known to frequently oust the president's party from Congress, as what happened in 2010 when the Democrats lost control over Congress – a loss of 63 seats in the House of Representatives to the GOP, and a further six seats in the Senate where they were significantly emasculated. In fact, this was the most disastrous defeat of the ruling party since the 1938 midterm ballot when the FDR-led Democrats lost 72 House seats. (See: U.S. House of Representatives. Office of the Clerk. Congressional Profile. Historical Party Divisions)
Potential reasons include not only the economy, but also Obama fatigue which might affect electoral outcomes and which is often felt during the sixth year of a second-term president. With the exception of lucky Bill Clinton in 1998, since World War II, a similar situation has occurred with Dwight Eisenhower in 1958 (a loss of 13 Senate and 48 House seats), Ronald Reagan in 1986 (a loss of eight Senate and five House seats), and George W. Bush in 2006 (a loss of six Senate and 30 House seats). (Sabato L. Republicans Really Could Win It All This Year. – Politico Magazine, January 06, 2014).
The U.S. midterm elections are known to frequently oust the president's party from Congress.
According to Charlie Cook, a noted American elections expert, "…the novelty, energy, and excitement of newly elected presidents tends to dissipate in their second term. We normally see a scarcity of new (good) ideas, and, to put it bluntly, a level of fatigue starts to plague the relationship between a president and the electorate." (Cook Charlie. Six-Year Itch Plagues Presidents in Midterms. History Shows that Midterm Elections are Usually Bad for the President’s Party. – National Journal, January 6, 2014.)
In a situation like this, midterm results will hinge on Obama’s public approval rating, which since early 2014 has been frozen at 44 percent with his disapproval figure also keeping steady at 50-51 percent according to Gallup (President Obama: Gallup Daily Tracking. "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" – PollingReport.com. As of now, U.S. analysts are having trouble identifying any factors or scenarios that might reverse these numbers. The events in Ukraine and the aggravation of Russian-American relations have also failed to bolster support for Obama. Polls conducted after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in mid-March 2014 have shown that Americans tend to disapprove of the administration's steps to resolve the crisis. According to a late-April ABC News-Washington Post poll, negative opinions of his performance on this issue led 46 to 34 percent (ABC News/Washington Post Poll. April 24-27, 2014. President Obama and Obama Administration. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the situation involving Russia and Ukraine?"– PollingReport.com).
ObamaCare in the Republican Cross Hairs
The Republicans won the 2010 midterm elections thanks to their diehard opposition to the healthcare reform launched under the March 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Along with gigantic budget allocations needed to remake the U.S. healthcare system and gradually move it toward gradual universal health insurance (Republicans insist that the cancellation of the reform would save roughly USD 2.1 trillion over the next 10 years), GOP antagonism is grounded on the premise that the reform could trigger tectonic shifts in national politics. In fact, Democrats have never concealed their intentions over the claim that the healthcare coverage of dozens of millions of Americans and their families could drastically expand their grassroots base and ensure their domination at all levels of elections, but primarily at the federal level.
The Republicans won the 2010 midterm elections thanks to their diehard opposition to the healthcare reform.
In reality, if access to medical insurance grows as planned, the implementation of the reform could directly affect the 2016 presidential elections. In his televised address to the nation on April 1, 2014 Mr. Obama said that during the initial six months of operations, the electronic exchanges sold 7.1 million medical insurance policies (The White House. Office of the Press Secretary. Remarks by the President on the Affordable Care Act. April 01, 2014). As a result of the high cost and political significance of the reform, the Republicans have decided to dig in their heels and try and kill the ghastly initiative, bearing in mind that in two years, the changes could become practically irreversible.
The GOP strategy aims at the complete abrogation of the Affordable Care Act by winning the Senate and retaining control over the House. Hence, the highly politicized struggle over the healthcare program has become a key component of the current campaign. The Republicans rightfully believe that if popular discontent over the reform keeps steady until next November, just like in 2010, they could gain points and strengthen their grip both in the Senate and the House. Associated with the president's name, ObamaCare is seen by many Americans not so much as a medical services system, but as a breach of their privacy by the big and burdensome government.
According to recent opinion surveys, the Republicans may still count on public dissatisfaction with ObamaCare and employ this factor to win the midterm elections. Pollsters have repeatedly found negative attitudes towards the reform among many Americans since the very beginning of Mr. Obama's second term. However, in spring 2014, the tide has begun to turn, after the administration took steps to expand medical insurance coverage. Notably, 90 percent of Democrats unanimously support the White House healthcare reform efforts, while only 60 percent of Republicans approve of the official approach of the House leaders and 30 percent want healthcare reform. (The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: March 2014. March 26, 2014).
The GOP's war against healthcare reform appears never-ending and may as well destabilize the U.S. political system. Actually, the struggle reflects mounting polarization in Congress, as well as the deepening ethnic, generational and geographical differences in the grassroots bases of the two parties. This lasting conflict places a burden on both of them while creating unpredictable political risks and depriving the country of a productive debate on the inevitable weakenesses of the 2010 act. (Calling the Affordable Care Act "Obamacare" Just Exacerbates Public Confusion, So Stop Doing It. – DailyKos, Sep 19, 2013.)
Republican Sabotage of Immigration Reform
A similarly ferocious struggle is occurring around immigration reform launched by Mr. Obama early in his second term. With regards to elections, the move boils down to legitimization of 13.3 million immigrants currently residing in the United States. (Center for Immigration Studies. North D. Could We Have 13,276,000 Legalization Applicants? March 21, 2014.)
U.S. politics is almost unprecedented, with the outcome of presidential elections to be defined not just by immigrant votes, also but by new citizens mainly from countries south of the Rio Grande.
As a matter of fact, the issue is at the core of the bitter political battle over Mr. Obama's immigration reforms proposals. The granting of green cards to illegal immigrants and ultimately with citizenship may take from five to ten years, but the long-term effects are bound to truly revolutionize the U.S. political system, bearing in mind the new family status of the pardoned illegitimate migrants.
American analysts believe that if the greater part of the proposed immigration legislation is adopted, by 2036 the U.S. electorate will grow by 32 million voters, with five million emerging by 2024, ten million by 2028 and 17 million by 2036. All of them will be ready to take part in all elections, and naturally case votes on the presidential ballot. (Camarota S. How Many New Voters Would S.744 Create? A look at the electoral implications of the Gang of Eight immigration bill. Center for Immigration Studies. October 2013. P. 1).
Of special importance appears the fact that in all presidential elections since 2000, the balance was tipped by a mere 4.5 million votes (with an average turnout of 122 million). At that, the 32-million-strong body of new voters just about matches the number of voters over 65 years of age who participated in the 2012 presidential elections, is twice as large as the number of American veterans, and is three times as large as the number of Latino voters who voted in 2012 (Ibid.).
But the main problem with regards to U.S. illegal immigration is in the fact that it is represented mostly by Latin Americans, which includes Mexicans, Asians and Africans. According to American experts, in 2010 58 percent or 6.5 million of the 11.2 million illegal immigrants were Mexicans and 23 percent or 2.6 million were arrivals from other Latin American countries; 11 percent, or 1.2 million, were Asians, four percent, or 500,000 people, were from African, and only three percent or 300,000 were Europeans or Canadians. (Calculations from the CRS Report for Congress. Unauthorized Aliens Residing in the United States: Estimates since 1986. December 13, 2013. RL 33874. P. 6).
Hence, the future of U.S. politics is almost unprecedented, with the outcome of presidential elections to be defined not just by immigrant votes, also but by new citizens mainly from countries south of the Rio Grande.
In the midst of these political battles, immigration reform has also fallen under powerful pressure from the GOP, which has launched a vigorous media campaign to play up the 1913 precedent when law enforcers allowed roughly 70,000 alien felons to stay on U.S. territory. In their letter to President Obama, 22 Republican senators directly accused him and his administration: "Your actions demonstrate an astonishing disregard for the Constitution, the rule of law, and the rights of American citizens and legal residents."
The fundamental reason for the Republican drive to disrupt immigration reform during the 2014 midterm campaign appears to lie in the fact that the GOP is increasingly becoming the party of the white majority, whereas the Democrats are progressively transforming into the party of ethnic minorities.
Notably, this rhetoric is full of political content. A March 2014 CBS survey has shown that only 35 percent of respondents are pleased with Mr. Obama's approach to immigration, while 56 percent disapprove of his actions. Interestingly, beginning in early 2013, when the White House earmarked the immigration reform as a second term priority, the number of supporters has been consistently decreasing, while opponents have been growing in number (Polling Report. President Obama and the Obama Administration. CBS News Poll. March 20-23, 2014. "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the issue of immigration?".)
The fundamental reason for the Republican drive to disrupt immigration reform during the 2014 midterm campaign appears to lie in the fact that the GOP is increasingly becoming the party of the white majority, whereas the Democrats are progressively transforming into the party of ethnic minorities. But the main result of this process is a definite strengthening of the blatantly racist fundamentals of the Republican Party's official ideology and actions.
In this case, the GOP's political agenda is formed by various think tanks insisting that any relaxation of immigration law would mean nothing else but the infiltration of unproductive and uneducated second-tier citizens into American society. (See: The Heritage Foundation. Rector R. and Richwine J. The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer. May 6, 2013). In fact, such scientifically substantiated conclusions provide the basis for Republican opposition to the Democrats' attempts at reform.
In winning Congress, the Republicans might as
well attempt to impeach Mr. Obama, as was
the case in 1998 with Bill Clinton in his sixth
presidential year
At the same time, such attitudes are not so much a product of U.S. university graduates sitting pretty in prestigious think tanks, but a manifestation of a larger phenomenon that has rocked the U.S. political scene since Mr. Obama’s election as president in 2008, i.e. the Tea Party that appears powerful enough to influence the 2014 elections. in actuality, the movement has turned into the GOP's paleoconservative faction. After its rise during the 2010 midterm elections and later fall in 2012, the Tea Party and its followers make about 22 percent of respondents or about one half of the Republican electorate (GALLUP. Tea Party Movement. April 11, 2014).
Many American experts believe that the Tea Party is the outright response to Mr. Obama's election as president (Kimball D., Summary B., Vorst E. Political Identify and Party Polarization in the American Electorate. Presented at The State of the Parties: 2012 and Beyond conference, Akron, OH, November 7, 2013. P. 14).
According to well-known political scientist William Galston, "a new America is indeed rising: less white, less rural, less socially conservative, less religious; a new America that supports legalized marijuana and comprehensive immigration reform and same-sex marriage. The Tea Party loathes this new America. But there’s nothing the Tea Party can do to stop it." (Galston W. “Strangers in This Land” - the Tea Party’s Lament. March 28, 2014).
To this end, the significance of the 2014 midterm elections lies much less in outlining the new ways for developing American society along the GOP lines, but rather in putting an end to the Obama presidency.
By winning in November, the Republicans would like to go beyond rendering Mr. Obama a lame duck, but also to utterly discredit him as the first black politician rising to American presidency. The repeated accusations of violations of the U.S. Constitution are not just campaign spin, but something with fairly definite post-election aftereffects. In winning Congress, the Republicans might as well attempt to impeach Mr. Obama, as was the case in 1998 with Bill Clinton in his sixth presidential year. Such a scenario might be fraught with a total paralysis of the government process until 2016, with significant foreign policy consequences guaranteed.
Bibliography
1. For details see: Vassilyev V.S. American Default Delayed but not Cancelled – America and Russia in the 21st Century. 2013, Issue 3.
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