Joshua Landis: Assad’s plan is to continue dividing the opposition

Foreign opinion

Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor at the University of Oklahoma and author of "Syria Comment".

In this special interview for the RIAC Joshua Landis analyses the situation in Syria, and discusses Assad’s strength, the status of the Syrian opposition, as well as Iranian and Russian factors in the conflict.

Foreign opinion

Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor at the University of Oklahoma and author of "Syria Comment".

In this special interview for the Russian International Affairs Council Joshua Landis analyses the situation in Syria, and discusses Assad’s strength, the status of the Syrian opposition, as well as Iranian and Russian factors in the conflict.

Interviewer: Maria Prosviryakova.

Joshua Landis, Director of the Center
for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor
at the University of Oklahoma and author
of "Syria Comment"

Transcript

The conflict in Syria has already seen 19 months of bloodshed. Assad is in international isolation, what leads him to believe that he still might win?

There is a great division among his opposition. There are approximately over two thousand militias fighting in Syria today, which leads Assad to believe that he will continue to divide them and that his military will remain the strongest of these militias and may be will be able to beat them back. As long as he continues to get support from Iran and Russia he is clearly hoping that he can turn the momentum against his opponents.

What is Assad’s plan?

He is withdrawn from some parts of Syria; particularly from the northeast- the Kurdish inhabited regions - where he handed power over to Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. It is the Kurdish Communist Party – the opponent of Turkey. He has armed some Christians, Kurds in some places, and Arab tribes. Thus, he is hoping to divide his enemies and remain the strongest power.

It is not clear whether Assad will be able to maintain power in places like Aleppo and Damascus - the two major Sunni cities which comprise about 50% of the Syrian population. His army is increasingly becoming an Alawite army.

But even if he loses control of the cities and the regime collapses, it doesn’t mean that the Assad army will collapse. It may mean that he is pushed out of the cities, but remains a vital force on the Syrian battlefield.

And if we have a Lebanon type outcome where Syria becomes increasingly fragmented the Alawites and the Assad army may play a major role in determining the outcome of the future Syria. They may not be the only power to have a say, but they will be a power. This scenario is very different from the view that many analysts have believing that the Assad’s army would crumble or fall and just disappear as a force and be completely routed. Today that looks very unlikely.

Aside from military actions what factors could make Assad step down?

I don’t think so. Of course, if the United States intervenes and uses its air power to destroy the Assad army that will obviously have a very profound effect. The USA could destroy Assad’s military power very quickly as it did Gaddafi’s or Saddam’s.

Or if the Sunni Arabs unite, which they seem to be unable to do so far. But should they unite and become one military force, they might win greater assistance from the outside world and they will be able to turn the tables pretty quickly on the Assad’s army. It is only if they unite. As long as they remain fragmented the way they are, it will be very difficult for them to prevail.

As long as Assad is getting weapons and has enough money to pay his troops he can remain a vital force. It will take a long time before his opponents can defeat him. Money and weapons are the key factors. If Iran stops supporting him – which seems unlikely today - he would crumble pretty quickly.

What international actions do you deem to be necessary at this stage of the conflict to prevent further bloodshed?

Stopping the bloodshed seems very difficult at this point. But the joint UN and Arab League Special Envoy on Syria Lakhdar Brahimi has almost thrown up his arms looking for some away to bring a resolution. But it doesn’t look like it is going to be a resolution any time soon. I don’t believe Assad can defeat and yet the opposition doesn’t seem to be able to defeat him. Right now we are at the stalemate.

What the world can do about it is unclear. Either if one side decides to change its level of commitment that will have a big effect. Should Russia really withdraw and begin to support the United States in UN resolutions it will have a big effect, but if it doesn’t this stalemate likely to go on.

Ousting Assad seems to be the only goal that unites the disintegrated opposition. What will happen to the opposition when Assad is gone?

Right now there seems to be a lot of militia leaders that with every day are becoming more and more entrenched. They are not going to want to give up power. Should the Assad’s regime collapse, it would be foolish not to expect it to be some level of contest and perhaps fighting between the various Sunni Arab militias. So, theoretically the civil war would go on for some time.

Professor Landis, thank you so much for this interview.