Five Steps towards Venezuela-U.S. Rapprochement

According to Caracas, President Obama’s Executive Order of March 9, 2015, which qualifies Venezuela as a “threat to the national security of the United States”, could serve as a prelude to an armed intervention. But in reality, the order appears to have brought the two countries towards the path of rapprochement.

According to Caracas, President Obama’s Executive Order of March 9, 2015, which qualifies Venezuela as a “threat to the national security of the United States”, could serve as a prelude to an armed intervention. But in reality, the order appears to have brought the two countries towards the path of rapprochement.

Indeed, the bilateral dialogue between the two countries since last March has shown that they are ready to normalize their relationship and overcome the era of confrontation in effect since 1999, when the Socialist government of Hugo Chavez came to power in this Caribbean country. Such a turn in events appeared absolutely impossible even earlier this year, but the current statements by both sides have significantly softened in comparison with previous rhetoric.

At the 7th Summit of Americas on April 9-11 in Panama, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro expressed a readiness to meet Barack Obama and try to overcome the accumulated differences. In mid-June, President of National Assembly Diosdado Cabello, Venezuela’s second-in-charge, met with DoS Counselor Thomas Shannon, after which Mr. Maduro has started to regularly mention the existence of a diplomatic channel being used to fix the bilateral dialogue.

Since Venezuela is a key geopolitical and trade partner for Russia in Latin America, with their cooperation spanning across the energy and military spheres, a proper assessment of these developments is vital for forecasting and possibly amending the Latin American vector of Moscow’s foreign policy. To date, the key drivers of the Caracas-Washington truce appear to be the following.

Domestic Issues

After Mr. Chavez died in 2013, Venezuela plunged into a series of crises that opened the lid for the opposition, primarily the Roundtable of Democratic Unity (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática or MUD), which derives strength from U.S. support and seriously undermines both the regime and overall governance. This point is especially important in view of the parliamentary elections next December 6. Due to inflation (68.5 percent in 2014) and the stagnating economy amidst lower oil prices, Mr. Maduro’s ratings are on a downward spiral (reaching 22 percent in January 2015). Hence, the Venezuelan advances essentially imply an attempt to handle urgent domestic problems, such as achieving a respite vis-à-vis the opposition and gain some points by demonstrating a readiness for dialogue with the United States.

Preventing U.S. Interference

REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins
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According to some sources, Washington is prepared to allocate two billion dollars to democracy support in Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador.

The opposition might use the effects of the recession and the low level of regime popularity to step up their protest activity in order to pressure the government and provoke it into brutal repressions, which could trigger either a U.S. military intervention in defense of democracy or cash infusions to the opposition. According to some sources, Washington is prepared to allocate two billion dollars to democracy support in Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador. This is why the massive protests in Venezuela and Ecuador that started last year are far from accidental and make Caracas come off as ready for Washington’s aid.

Preventing Regional Isolation

On the whole, Venezuela enjoys support from practically all regional states and organizations and forums, including the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Summit of Americas. At the same time, almost all leftist and radical left regimes in Latin America are acting quite pragmatically by simultaneously criticizing the United States for its imperialism and treating it as a promising market and lucrative trading partner. In recent months, there have been amicable advances from Cuba and later Brazil and Bolivia, whose relations with the empire are hardly straightforward.

Venezuelan advances essentially imply an attempt to handle urgent domestic problems, such as achieving a respite vis-à-vis the opposition.

Russia and Latin America. RIAC Infographics

According to some sources, Washington is prepared to allocate two billion dollars to democracy support in Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador.

Hence, Venezuela is also striving to be constructively pragmatic by joining its brotherly leftist regimes which are eager to improve their economic relations with the United States, provided their sovereignty is respected.

Strengthening Geopolitical Cooperation

It is high time that Venezuela should focus on economic matters, such as attracting investment and diversifying of exports as global commodity prices fall. Although the U.S.A. has been Venezuelan’s main trading partner despite the political differences, the two countries obviously can expand their cooperation.

Geopolitics

The turbulent and volatile global environment is opening up fresh opportunities for unexpected alliances, raising the importance of geopolitics. To this end, Washington is likely to relinquish its principles and adopt new approaches towards such anti-American regimes as Cuba and Venezuela, which does not necessarily mean differences will disappear or serious rapprochement will occur, but instead that steps will be taken that might disrupt the seemingly solid system of relations. Assuming that the United States benefits from its peacemaking efforts with Venezuela, among other things to counter Russian inroads into Latin America, Washington may gain more from better relations with Caracas rather than from regime change.

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In a nutshell, Venezuela is offering an olive branch to the U.S.A. in order to solve its domestic and economic problems and improve its regional status, which is so far within the range of Washington’s geopolitical interests. However, this trend will not obstruct the Russia-Venezuela partnership, as well as Russia’s return to Latin America, although a need is arising for Moscow to be more pragmatic and consistent in its policies.