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Interview

Russian policy is a field in which the United States should rise from the tactical to the strategic level. The reset has yielded Washington some valuable but, at the same time, limited results. However, U.S. foreign-policy decision-makers usually ignore the importance of relations with Moscow, viewing it through a prism of maintaining a stable global and regional balance, for example in Asia-Pacific.

Interview

Russian policy is a field in which the United States should rise from the tactical to the strategic level. The reset has yielded Washington some valuable but, at the same time, limited results. However, U.S. foreign-policy decision-makers usually ignore the importance of relations with Moscow, viewing it through a prism of maintaining a stable global and regional balance, for example in Asia-Pacific.

Interview with Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and RIAC member

Do you think that this year’s U.S. election campaign and the November 6 vote was in any particular way different from those seen in previous years?

As far as the election campaign is concerned, I would highlight the GOP nomination struggle. I mean the absence of a frontrunner, the abundance of right-wingers, and the reluctant nomination of Mitt Romney, a pragmatic who had greater support among independent and undecided voters than he did within his own party. The campaign took place in the midst of a protracted economic recovery, with Obama becoming the first president to be reelected despite an extremely high unemployment rate.

Looking back, how would you assess Obama's first term, his key achievements and failures? Has he really fulfilled his 2008 promises?

Barack Obama has taken the appropriate steps to lead the economy out of recession. And he has also tried to deal with a major social problem, the lack of any health insurance for a huge part of the U.S. population. However, Medicare reform, the landmark of Obama's first term, was only partially successful. As a result, it was not unfulfilled pre-election promises, but rather disappointment over the expectations that came with Obama's election in 2008 that were his biggest problem in 2012.

Barack Obama's victory speech

Are there any indications about Obama's foreign policy direction in the years to come? How might the priorities and accents be arranged? Do you expect any dramatic changes?

Barack Obama is likely to go ahead with the key policies, including the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, pressure on Iran, and a strategic pivot to Asia-Pacific. At the same time, U.S. policy seems to be suffering from a shortage of strategic vision. Sometimes events-driven, Washington may lack a distinct strategy, say, in the Middle East, and particularly toward Syria. While I am not expecting any major shifts, I believe that U.S. foreign policy requires better goal-setting.

In a recent publication you pointed out that "the intellectual problem facing U.S. policymakers is that present-day Russia is neither an ally to be led nor a serious threat to be contained." So, what kind of Russian strategy would you expect Obama to take up? Do you see any changes to come? What kind of problems might come to the foreground in bilateral relations?

Russian policy is a field in which the United States should rise from the tactical to the strategic level. The reset has yielded Washington some valuable but, at the same time, limited results. However, U.S. foreign-policy decision-makers usually ignore the importance of relations with Moscow, viewing it through a prism of maintaining a stable global and regional balance, for example in Asia-Pacific. Obama and his team should use the reset as the basis for an intellectual breakthrough in moving to achieve a qualitatively new level in the Russian-American relationship.

Questions prepared by Natalie Yevtikhevich, RIAC Program Manager

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Poll conducted

  1. In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
    U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements  
     33 (31%)
    U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity  
     30 (28%)
    U.S. wants to dissolve Russia  
     24 (22%)
    U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China  
     21 (19%)
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