Dangerous Escalation in Jerusalem: Who Could Win?

By Naser AL-Tamimi, Ph.D. in international relations, UK-based Middle East analyst, independent political consultant and journalist, Al Arabiya news regular contributor. The tension in Jerusalem, if it remains unchanged, may lead to serious security deterioration and possibly to an outbreak of a third Palestinian uprising or Intifada. Yoram Cohen, Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief, recently captured the gravity of the situation when he warned members of the Israeli Knesset (Parliament) against changing the status quo on the Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount), in order to avoid sparking a religious war.

By Naser AL-Tamimi, Ph.D. in international relations, UK-based Middle East analyst, independent political consultant and journalist, Al Arabiya news regular contributor.

The tension in Jerusalem, if it remains unchanged, may lead to serious security deterioration and possibly to an outbreak of a third Palestinian uprising or Intifada. Yoram Cohen, Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief, recently captured the gravity of the situation when he warned members of the Israeli Knesset (Parliament) against changing the status quo on the Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount), in order to avoid sparking a religious war.

This dangerous situation is accompanied by the deadlock in peace process, and the rising influence of jihadist groups in the Middle East. These developments may partly explain why some of the European countries are beginning to recognize a Palestinian state. Although recognition of a Palestinian state is an important and symbolic step it will not change the reality in the short term. However, this development reflects widespread European frustration with Israel's continued expansion of settlements into the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and the impasse in the peace process.

Naser AL-Tamimi

Most importantly, there are concerns among many policy makers in Europe and the United States that the explosive situation in the city of Jerusalem could strengthen religious extremism in the region. Perhaps the political whirlpool that occurred as a result of US Secretary of State John Kerry's recent statements linking the growing popularity of the Islamic State (IS) with the Palestinian plight reflects these concerns very clearly.

Adding to these explosive issues, Netanyahu's government last week proposed a new controversial law that would define "national rights" in Israel as reserved for Jews only. From my point of view, the term Jewish state will only add to the complexity of the current situation and open a door to new conflicts rather than solving the old ones. Tellingly, Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, has voiced his strong opposition to the controversial new law.

These developments may represent a golden opportunity for Hamas to expand its influence in the West Bank and Jerusalem. In fact, the situation may turn into a win – win scenario for Hamas and other Islamic groups. On the one hand, if the Palestinian Authority accepted to hold presidential and legislative elections, it is most likely Hamas will win. On the other hand, if the status quo persists and the Israeli government goes ahead with its current policies, this could increase the popularity of Hamas and weaken the Palestinian Authority even further.