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Ivan Lapshin

PhD in Philosophy, Expert in Latin languages

In recent decades, individuals, society and the world as a whole have been changing at breakneck speed, necessitating scientific approaches to predicting future developments. However, science-based prediction is a relatively young discipline, while authors of fiction – and especially science fiction – have been attempting to model societal and technological changes for centuries. One particularly interesting trend is cyberpunk, a science fiction sub-genre that developed over the final quarter of the 20th century merging scientific prediction elements present in many preceding literary genres with a projected technologic and social future, which is rapidly becoming a reality.

In recent decades, individuals, society and the world as a whole have been changing at breakneck speed, necessitating scientific approaches to predicting future developments. However, science-based prediction is a relatively young discipline, while authors of fiction – and especially science fiction – have been attempting to model societal and technological changes for centuries. One particularly interesting trend is cyberpunk, a science fiction sub-genre that developed over the final quarter of the 20th century merging scientific prediction elements present in many preceding literary genres with a projected technologic and social future, which is rapidly becoming a reality.

Science Fiction: From Fantasy to Forecasting

The earliest endeavors to predict the future are closely connected with archaic religions and related visions of the world. In shamanism, prediction, i.e. obtaining knowledge from the spirits, is equivalent to exerting direct influence on the future, such as healing the sick. Similarly, ancient astronomy is virtually indistinguishable from astrology. Nevertheless, calendars based on the movement of celestial bodies may be rightfully cited as original instances of proto-scientific prediction and, for many centuries, was likely the only example of this activity.

luminarium.org
Woodcut map from the first edition of Utopi
(Louvain: 1516)

Despite individual successes seen in astronomy as practiced by the classical thinkers, and entire periods when it flourished in the in the Islamic Middle Age, before Modern Era the interest in astronomy and any form of prediction was relatively scant. But the 17th century saw the emergence of fiction boasting plots based on existing and imagined future discoveries. Notable works include The New Atlantis by Francis Bacon (1627) and Somnium by Johannes Kepler (1634), which pioneered the science fiction genre. The New Atlantis continued the utopian genre that had arisen a century earlier (Utopia by Thomas More was written in 1516), but focused on scientific development rather than on socio-political issues.

Science fiction’s subsequent development is closely linked to the evolution of the novel. During the decades that followed, numerous novels appeared, including psychological works such as The New Heloise by Jean-Jacques Rousseau and Manon Lescaut by Abbe Prevost. Many were a long way from any kind of prediction, but in 1726 Gulliver's Travels by Jonathan Swift was published, offering pointed social criticism and a description of alternative forms of societal organization. In 1752, Voltaire's Micromegas appeared, a comic novel based on the idea of space travel, while in 1743 More's Utopia was reprinted under a slightly altered title, acquiring the features of a philosophical novel.

Frankenstein by Mary Shelly (1818) continues the development of the novel as a separate genre, while also combining many different genre, composition and other elements and tropes that are currently associated with science fiction, i.e. a scientific expeditions, a delirious scientist and an experiment out of control.

Calendars based on the movement of celestial bodies may be rightfully cited as original instances of proto-scientific prediction and, for many centuries, was likely the only example of this activity.

However, science fiction’s heyday came in the second half of the 19th and early 20th centuries, in works by Jules Verne and H.G. Wells, which proved enormous commercial successes. Both authors are key figures not just in science fiction, but in predicting the future, since many of their prophecies came true in the decades to come, meaning that both can rightly be called ‘futurologists’. In fact, Jules Verne predicted the development of airplanes, helicopters, television, the widespread use of aluminum in the aerospace industry, as well as many other things. Some of technology-related prophecies by H.G. Wells also became a reality, such as the A-bomb, machine guns and optical sights, although his socio-political ideas formulated in Anticipations (1901), The Discovery of the Future (1902) and fictional works are arguably much more significant. Although many of his predictions failed to materialize, his ideas were greeted with substantial interest, particularly his criticism of democracy, the class society, his deliberations on euthanasia and birth control. The Time Machine (1895) to great extent laid the foundations for dystopia, a genre that became particularly popular in the decades that followed.

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, many non-fiction scientific predictions appeared. Along with Anticipations, Germany in 2000 (1891) by Georg Erman and Outline of the Political and Economic Organization of the Society of the Future (1899) by Gustave de Molinari are of particular interest. Thus, futurology in fiction seems to have effectively presaged that in non-fiction.

First film version of the novell by J.Orwell
“1984”, dir. M. Anderson, 1956

By the mid-20th century, mankind witnessed the formation of science fiction subgenres such as hard science fiction based on the laws of natural science and containing detailed scientific outlines and social science fiction depicting life in imaginary societies and their internal relationships. Just as Verne’s popularity peaked before that of Wells, hard science fiction was giving way to its socially-orientated kin, especially with the advance of dystopia, as seen in Brave New World by Aldous Huxley (1932), 1984 by George Orwell (1949), Fahrenheit 451 by Ray Bradbury (1953) and The Final Circle of Paradise by the Strugatsky brothers (1964). This is often referred to as the Golden Age of science fiction, as both subgenres show a reduction in the imaginary component, and consequently they are both increasingly related to the current realities, both technological and social. Despite the obvious rise of social science fiction, it would not be true to say that hard science fiction declined in those days. With the emergence of the idea of the science and technology revolution in the 20th century, writers won an opportunity to project the future from assumptions regarding the nature and timing of the next phase of this revolution, and to predict the dominance of a certain – essentially new – technology. Meanwhile, this projection definitely evoked societal interest.

Hence, by the mid-20th century, science fiction was confidently perceived at the futurologist angle, correlating fiction with a hypothetical future, with the focus on supposed technological and societal changes.

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Illustration for "Mona Lisa Overdrive"
William Gibson

In the 1960s, the Golden Age was replaced by the New Wave, which includes Michael Moorcock, Roger Zelazny, and Philip Dick among others, who were doing their best to shed the clichés that seemed inherent in works by their predecessors. Although the New Wave could not be said to have heralded the decline of science fiction proper, the genre’s frontiers began disintegrate, with social and technical imagination on a downward spiral.

The 1980s were marked by the popularization of personal computers, when IT was no longer the more or less exclusive domain of specialists and the idea of a global information network became a reality. These and other changes prompted the emergence of cyberpunk as a new subgenre in science fiction. This genre is particularly interesting from the point of view of contemporary futurology for several reasons: publications in this genre continue the tradition of applying science fiction to the real world (something less specific to the New Wave); more attention to technological and social issues i.e. combining features of hard and social science fiction; and a description of the world as it will be in the near future.

Cyberpunk: Predictions and Reality

By the mid-20th century, science fiction was confidently perceived at the futurologist angle, correlating fiction with a hypothetical future, with the focus on supposed technological and societal changes.

The work of cyberpunk can by no means be reduced to attempts to warn of or forecast certain changes in technology and society, since many works concentrate on the aesthetics of the supposed dystopian future, i.e. megalopolises with distinctly stratified societies, transnational corporations taking on the role of states and shaping societal life, anti-humanism, and many other traits. However, just as with other science fiction subgenres, cyberpunk offers a productive correlation between projections of the future 20 to 30 years ago with the existing reality. Some generalizations on the classic cyberpunk works that include Neuromancer, Count Zero and Mona Lisa Overdrive by William Gibson and Snow Crash by Neal Stephenson are given below.

1) Cyberpunk predicted the global reach of the electronic and information network, as well as the emergence of new kinds of crime that render traditional law enforcement barely applicable or even irrelevant.

Cybercrime has been known about for several decades: its initial manifestations surfaced in the 1960s [1] , when no innovative technical means or operational schemes were needed to expose them. But the development of encryption systems and their widespread use have drastically changed the environment. A vivid example of this can be found in the case of Silk Road, an electronic marketplace, whose owner was eventually detained [2].

Silk Road appeared in 2011 as a highly anonymous Internet market open to the trade in illegal goods – primarily prohibited psychoactive substances – and practically impenetrable if someone wished to locate its owner and clients. By July 2011, it had became infamous – prompting prominent U.S. Senator Charles Schumer to ask U.S. law enforcement to shut down “the secretive narcotics market [3]. Its closure was only achieved two years later, in part due to its alleged creator and owner Ross Ulbricht’s mistake – he posted his email address (giving first and last names) on a forum. In addition to narcotics trading, he is also charged with attempted murder over allegedly using his website to organize the killing of an individual who had threatened to expose Silk Road’s users in March 2013 [4].

Silk Road existed for just 30 months, but in that short time, it was used to conclude over one million deals, with a monthly turnover in 2012 of over one million dollars [5]. Had its owner been more careful, the site could have functioned much longer, while the services forming its hardware base, i.e. anonymous network Tor [6] and crypto-currency Bitcoin [7] are still alive and kicking.

2) Cyberpunk is known to attach the role of states to transnational corporations, which amass enormous capital, marginalizing or even ousting states with their social and economic regulation mechanisms.

In fact, many TNCs possess funds comparable with those of large states. In 2011, Apple had more cash than the U.S. government – USD 76.4 billion against USD 73.7 billion, and in October 2013 it was among nine largest enterprises, with more cash on hand than the U.S. Treasury [8]. Today Apple is 15th on the Forbes 2000 list [9].

www.businessinsider.com.au
Foxconn factory, Shenzhen, China

Apple is registered in the United States and is headquartered in Cupertino, which justly makes it an American corporation. At the same time, one of its major manufacturers is Taiwan’s Foxconn, whose main factories are on mainland China and additional plants in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Mexico and other countries. Foxconn also makes products for firms registered in Japan (Sony, Canon), the United States (Microsoft, Motorola), Finland (Nokia), China (Xiaomi), and Switzerland (Pocketbook) [10].

3) Foxconn’s largest factory in Shenzhen employs up to 230,000 workers [11], raising the so-called Dozois criterion posited by American writer Gardner Dozois to describe cyberpunk books, i.e. high tech, lowlife. Foxconn’s hardworking employees are generally underpaid, and management has been repeatedly accused of violating labor laws. In early 2012, 12 of its workers committed suicide [12], after which some improvements were made and salaries were raised. Nevertheless, this kind of production organization seems most attractive for today’s major manufacturers and is likely to remain so during the decades to come. The relatively high production cost of high-tech items in the U.S. is only one of the reasons why Apple has moved most of its manufacturing abroad. The fact the United States lacks the appropriate infrastructure and workforce is a much more important factor [13]. In other words, America is less able than China to meet the high tech, low life criterion, and, consequently, in manufacturing.

4) In the world of cyberpunk, transnational corporations go hand in hand with large private military companies unattached either to states or nations.

In modern history, private military structures emerged in the 1960s-1970s and specialized in training third world armies, one of the first contracts was concluded between the U.S. government and Vinell Corp. to train the Saudi National Guard [14]. However, private armies have been prolific participants in armed conflicts. Executive Outcomes took part in the Angolan civil war in 1993-1995, and in Sierra Leone in 1995, and was quite effective in both cases – despite its low numbers. Several military companies operated in Iraq during the U.S. invasion.

They are often quite competitive in strength with many regular armies and exceed them in competence as they recruit military veterans from different countries and extensive training with no costs spared.

Hence, at least four assumptions made by cyberpunk writers came true, and there is nothing to suggest that these processes will fade away in the decades to come, meaning that serious attention should be also given to the following issues:

  1. The rise of cybercrime and emergence of fundamentally new types that would require new technical countermeasures and amended laws.
  2. Skyrocketing economic clout of transnational corporations, their geographical decentralization and loss of national identity.
  3. Lower living standards as a factor intrinsic to the development of at least high-tech manufacturing.
  4. The increasing role of private military companies in armed conflicts.

1. M.E. Kabay. A Brief History of Computer Crime: An Introduction for Students, URL: http://www.mekabay.com/overviews/history.pdf

2. http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/04/world/americas/silk-road-ross-ulbricht/

3. http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/123187958.html

4. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2442297/Ross-William-Ulbricht-Silk-Road-founder-paid-undercover-agent-80K-kill-employee.html

5. http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.7139

6. Tor is software for anonymous Internet use and countering the monitoring operations.

7. Crypto-currency is electronic currency issued and used through encryption of data without the involvement of governmental or other regulators.

8. http://qz.com/134093/all-of-these-companies-have-more-cash-right-now-than-the-us-government/

9. http://www.forbes.com/companies/apple/

10. http://newsland.com/news/detail/id/1312979/

11. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html?_r=2&hp=&pagewanted=all&

12. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/7773011/A-look-inside-the-Foxconn-suicide-factory.html

13. http://www.tuaw.com/2012/01/22/why-apples-products-are-designed-in-california-but-assembled/

14. http://www.rbcdaily.ru/magazine/business/562949988486308

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