Cuba-United States: A second wind?

In late December 2014 it was announced that relations between the United States and Cuba had been restored. Both sides agreed on the mutual release of a number of prisoners in U.S. and Cuban jails. There was a breakthrough in the economic sphere too, with U.S. banks allowed to open branches in Cuba and U.S. citizens permitted to send remittances to the island. Mutual trade will expand, and the issue of lifting the embargo will be put on the agenda.

In late December 2014 it was announced that relations between the United States and Cuba had been restored. Both sides agreed on the mutual release of a number of prisoners in U.S. and Cuban jails. There was a breakthrough in the economic sphere too, with U.S. banks allowed to open branches in Cuba and U.S. citizens permitted to send remittances to the island. Mutual trade will expand, and the issue of lifting the embargo will be put on the agenda.

This breakthrough in U.S.-Cuban relations came as a surprise to many, but not those who kept a wary eye on the contacts between the two countries. This event has been expected.

In October 2014, the New York Times published an editorial, urging Washington to consider lifting the sanctions on Cuba and emphasized the positive political and economic changes on the island.

“The [Cuban - EB] government has said it would welcome renewed diplomatic relations with the United States and would not set preconditions,” noted the paper [1]. Moreover, “failing to engage with Cuba now will likely cede this market to competitors.” There is little doubt that by competitors the paper meant China and Russia. We can only add that sanctions produce a double-edged effect, in which both sides suffer. The same is equally true of the “sanctions hysteria” against Russia.

Fidel Castro responded with lightning speed to the article in The New York Times, with a benevolent commentary that particularly stressed the positive changes in U.S. public opinion, which is now sympathetic to lifting the sanctions on Cuba.

Cautious rapprochement between the two countries began much earlier. In May 2002, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter visited Cuba and proposed a four-point plan to normalize relations between the United States and Cuba, which provided for:

• lifting Cuban travel restrictions;
• lifting the embargo;
• settling property disputes resulting from the nationalization of U.S. property after the 1959 Revolution;
• using the Cuban Diaspora in the United States as a bridge for a rapprochement between the two countries.

Adalberto Roque/AFP/ kuow.org

U.S. President Barack Obama has repeatedly talked about the “new approach” to relations with Cuba. For example, in November 2013 during a visit to Florida, he indicated that the United States could review the sanctions against Cuba. “Keep in mind that when Fidel Castro came to power I was just born, so the notion that the same policies that we put in place in 1961 would somehow still be as effective in the age of the Internet, Google and world travel, doesn’t make sense.” In addition, Barack Obama emphasized that the current generation of Americans is ready to find “new mechanisms” to solve problems in bilateral relations.

Following the Edward Snowden scandal, this former U.S. intelligence officer was expected to fly from Hong Kong to Havana. However, this did not happen, which some media scribed to Cuba’s position. It can be assumed that the Cuban authorities’ position on this issue resulted from its unwillingness to spoil relations with the United States.

The future of Cuban-American relations depends largely on the island’s economic situation, while the latter relies heavily on Venezuela’s economic development, which has recently experienced serious difficulties. Against this background, there are two possible options: either Cuba will follow Russia over geopolitical considerations or some oil-rich country such as Iran will step in, in exchange for cooperation in the military sphere (training terrorists and military specialists, deploying military bases). Both options are hypothetical, and therefore Cuba’s economy in the near future will face hard times. Drastic measures would be required to avoid an economic collapse, which in turn would necessitate political liberalization. However, radical changes are not expected, as long as the well-being of powerful and numerous Cuban security forces is maintained at a satisfactory level, since they will not permit spontaneous political change. It should be noted that after half a century of one-party ideological domination in Cuba and an unprecedented escape from the island of over one million people (about 10 percent of the population), cautious political changes are possible only “from above.”

Progress in the sphere of civil rights and freedoms in Cuba is not very fast, but it is consistent. In recent years, numerous dissidents have been released and travel abroad has been permitted. The United States, in turn, began to issue multiple-entry visas to Cuban citizens. In June 2013 direct talks began in Washington on the restoration of postal services. The Cuban government announced the expansion of Internet access in public areas. Numerous Internet cafes were opened across the country and restrictions on the use of mobile communication were lifted. Even such a sensitive issue as the attitude to sexual minorities is being addressed. In May 2013 a walk with the slogan “Socialism Yes, Homophobia No” took place, led by Mariela Castro Espin, Raul Castro’s daughter.

www.torontoforumoncuba.com
Mariela Castro Espin

As to relations with the United States, the Cuban authorities have somewhat moderated the “anti-imperialist” rhetoric of visual and other propaganda.

On the other hand, the lifting of the U.S. embargo, which is the most important condition for the complete normalization of relations, is only possible if the issue of compensating American owners for expropriated property in Cuba is settled. The Cubans have neither the resources to address the issue of compensation, nor any willingness to undertake such an endeavor. The Americans, however, may be ready to agree on some compromise, namely restructuring or even a partial write-off of debts. Recognizing expropriation as illegal is of key importance to Americans and could prompt them to make concessions.

Some political analysts believe that the progress in U.S.-Cuban relations is aimed at weakening relations between Russia and Cuba. The massive improvement of relations with Cuba serves America’s national interests, while weakening Cuban-Russian relations appears to be merely a nice bonus for Washington, but no more.

1. Obama Should End the Embargo on Cuba, New York Times, 11.10.2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/12/opinion/sunday/end-the-us-embargo-on-cuba.html