It is entirely possible that the crucial events of 2012 in the Pacific Rim will be the processes going on in Myanmar (former Burma) and around it. The military who came to power as a result of 1988 events (the former “socialism-oriented” regime of U Ne Win brought the country on the brink of a collapse which resulted in an uprising) are quitting the stage of their own free will.
Implementing the “roadmap” for democratization adopted in 2003, in March 2011 military top commanders reposed power in hands of a civilian government (though it incorporates well-known players). A decisive “acceleration” of political life encouraged by President Thein Sein promises a real “perestroika”.
It is entirely possible that the crucial events of 2012 in the Pacific Rim will be the processes going on in Myanmar (former Burma) and around it. The military who came to power as a result of 1988 events (the former “socialism-oriented” regime of U Ne Win brought the country on the brink of a collapse which resulted in an uprising) are quitting the stage of their own free will.
Implementing the “roadmap” for democratization adopted in 2003, in March 2011 military top commanders reposed power in hands of a civilian government (though it incorporates well-known players). A decisive “acceleration” of political life encouraged by President Thein Sein promises a real “perestroika”. Aung Sun Su Kyi, the protest symbol, regained freedom and dynamically joined the race to win the parliamentary elections to be held in April 2012. Liberalization of public life has been launched; the press is feeling more freely.
The country with the population of nearly 60 million people possessing tangible mineral resources (natural gas, crude oil, precious stones, timber) is one of the few large untapped markets for transnational corporations. Contrary to popular belief that Myanmar is the poorest world country where people live from hand to mouth is nothing more than a propagandistic myth supported by doubtful statistics which ignores the non-commodity sector of economy. Actually, a sizeable part of the population lives in poverty, but those people neither live in misery nor starve. The point is that two thirds of the population is peasants living in semi-natural economy which is quite difficult to take account of. National economy is a two-tier structure, and the proceeds from export of natural resources enable the elite to resolve both personal and national problems. Wage-leveling has been long ago done with. The middle class is there (in the cities), as well as very rich people. Mansions in the streets of Yangoon (Rangoon) and a break-neck growth of condominiums can be seen as vivid evidence thereof, as well as a soaring vehicle fleet – liberalization of import generated traffic jams in the streets.
The country impresses with tidiness and stability; there is no wretchedness so common in seemingly more “advanced” Asian neighbors. Neypyido, the national capital, makes a mixed impression (public servants had to move to the capital – a resettlement voluntary in theory but compulsory in practice); reportedly, its population is getting close to one million inhabitants. The city was founded in 2005 at the foothills 350 km from the sea coast. The design to build a “garden city” is impressive, as well as thoroughness and diligence of its implementation, while the relevance of this undertaking remains questionable. Nonetheless, this project (and construction of superhighways as part of it) is still more valuable to the country than construction of private villas at foreign resorts.
Naturally, the military enforced their habitual heavy-handed discipline in the country, and violation of human rights made part of it. However, the scale thereof is obviously dramatized. It is not a closed totalitarian society of the North Korean style where repressions are a part of everyday life. One should not ignore that аn alternative to the hard and fast order in the country with smoldering chronic ethnic conflicts would be bloody chaos. Today’s “restructuring” seems to be somewhat spontaneous. The country needs consecutive and systematic efforts in establishing a legal system corresponding to the daily wants of the people, while a wise economic policy should be worked out to avoid imbalance in economy in case the country joins the world division of labor (it means the advance of transnational corporations which are not exactly scrupulous in means and methods). However, the elite is neither qualified enough nor aware of such problems.
In the meantime the situation in the country is getting less predictable. If Western political strategists get down to business, the accession to power of the opposition rising from the ashes can entail landslide democratization and upset not only social but also ethnic balance, and cause centrifugal tendencies up to the Yugoslavian scenario. The population is politically inactive, while the elites (part of which is supported by the West, another part – by China) can play until a disastrous conflict.
What Does the End of the Boycott Mean?
For two decades Myanmar has been a “whipping boy”, a “stronghold of tyranny” to the West. Today the country is still under heavy sanctions, being isolated from the international banking and financial system. Probably, the Americans just feel hurt because after the coup Burma did not join their orbit, and decided to “put the squeeze” on the unruly regime, followed by the inertia of isolation and sanctions. Now the West has to make up leeway.
Limited enough liberalization gave occasion to an abrupt change of attitude toward the former “outcast regime” from the West. Foreign visitors came running and flooded the hotels of Yangoon (Rangoon) and Neypyido, as if a river dam collapsed after a Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit in December 2011 which was a watershed event in Myanmar’s relations with the US and West in general. Discussions of the prospects of Myanmar development and its “discovery” have become a fancy topic among Western political scientists. In February 2012 the EU lifted a number of sanctions formerly imposed on the country. The World Bank resumed its cooperation with Myanmar.
Ironically, the West has discovered Myanmar all by itself, without “door opening” by the country itself, as if in recognition of the inconsistency of the years long boycott. It happened due to a number of geopolitical and economic reasons. Probably, Myanmar deserves the title of an Indo-Chinese country more than others – a natural bridge between the two largest world nations, which is now gaining in geopolitical importance for both. Naturally, to bring this richest country closer to the US would mean to fasten the noose of influence around China.
Therefore, the stakes in the international game around Myanmar are now higher than ever. Local political experts are apprehensive of excessive dependence on China which is capable of “choking the economy to death in its embrace”. The government had the courage to make an unprecedented move by freezing the construction of a hydropower plant undertaken by Chinese companies. China is watching with suspicion the Neypyido’s overtures with the US, apprehensive of the American plans “to encircle” China. Growing Chinese influence is a cause for concern in India. The ASEAN countries which for many years were kind of “ashamed” of Myanmar’s membership, though they defended the country against Western attacks, are now supporting current tendencies, through self-interested reasons included – with the purpose to limit an excessively fast growing (according to many analysts) Chinese influence in the region. In 2014 Myanmar will assume the ASEAN chairmanship and will be hosting an East Asian Summit. The ASEAN members feel concerned that by that time the country should meet at least minimal democratic standards, while being apprehensive of growing economic instability. Myanmar itself is interested in developing relations with its regional neighbors, but, probably, it is not fully aware of its own benefits of a more close integration which would demand certain concessions in terms of national sovereignty.
Russia’s Role
Russia is little short of ignoring this far-away and, as seen by the experts taught by the Western guidebooks, “unimportant” country, though it stands up for this country in the international arena together with China. However, Myanmar’s attitude toward Russia is positive enough. Over the recent years the country has sent on its own account nearly five thousand students to major in technical professions in Russia, which can be a tangible groundwork for the future. However, the economic presence of Russian business in Myanmar is practically nonexistent or even tends to negative values, for instance, in connection with the messed up ironworks construction project. There is an exotic enough project of the underground railway construction in the capital, while its practicability remains questionable. That said, according to the proverb he who pays the piper calls the tune. Though the commodity turnover has grown, it makes a little more than half a billion USD. In all sincerity local experts are straightforward in saying that if Russia wants to materialize its stake in consolidating its position in the Pacific Rim, it should ensure its presence in economy, undertake specific steps that would bring Russian business to the Asian markets, Myanmar market in that number. The time for the move is exceptionally right, which is of no small importance.
We are welcome to Myanmar, while they won’t wait for long: European and American investors are cueing up at the doors of Myanmar establishments and companies in addition to Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and Thai corporations. Mining industry, communications, tourism and banking – this is an incomplete list of industries where Russian companies could find their own foothold. Tourism seems to be the most promising venture: in 2011 only three thousand Russians visited Myanmar with its sites of amazing beauty, while one million Russian tourists went to Thailand trampled down with their own feet. The Russian “soft power” is also a hopeful – our culture is accepted with great interest and without prejudice.
Political attention to an “awakening tiger” should be enhanced, and in this connection we must think of a visit of the Russian Foreign Minister to Neypyido. An impetus to the relations was made in February 2012 by the meeting between S. Lavrov and Wunna Maung Lwin, Myanmar Foreign Minister. As all Asians, the Burmese attach special importance to such personal contacts which then yield quite tangible dividends. The visit of Chairperson of the Federation Council V. Matvienko to Myanmar in March 2012 is also a welcome event. This was the first high-level visit of its kind over many years.
Keeping in mind that in 2014 Myanmar will be hosting the East Asian Summit with Russia’s membership since 2011, a pro-active dialog with the Burmese could become an important factor of advancing the Russian vision of the perspective regional security design in the Pacific Rim.
