A World With no Borders or Visas: Utopian or Inevitable?
In
Login if you are already registered
(no votes) |
(0 votes) |
RIAC Expert
The world around us is changing rapidly, and its changes could be even greater and more effective if the movement of people, goods and services were not constrained by national borders. However, there are many indications that shifts in this direction will not be long in coming. The position of visas and border controls will to a great extent hinge on the future of the nation state. Opinions differ regarding the latter, but current developments already suggest that with time the sovereignty of individual states will inevitably be restricted.
The world around us is changing rapidly, and its changes could be even greater and more effective if the movement of people, goods and services were not constrained by national borders. However, there are many indications that shifts in this direction will not be long in coming. The position of visas and border controls will to a great extent hinge on the future of the nation state. Opinions differ regarding the latter, but current developments already suggest that with time the sovereignty of individual states will inevitably be restricted.
This transformation no means implies the demise of the traditional state. With time, a multilevel system of responsibilities will emerge, with the leading role of the nation state most likely preserved in many respects. However, the state will have to pay increasing heed to both the supranational level and the growing opportunities for citizens to enforce their rights though supranational structures.
As for visas and borders, the multilevel interaction system will at the same time be simpler within the supranational association, and more complicated where third parties are concerned.
Supranational Entities
There are grounds to believe that the future of the visa problem will greatly depend on the future supranational association, seen as a project through which states divide control over their national borders. Furthermore, three distinct elements deserve separate attention: 1) border issues within such associations; 2) relations between integration associations; 3) interaction with third party countries, primarily representatives of the South in a broad sense.
If the existing integration associations remain and continue to develop, some aspects of their visa regimes will be simplified. At the same time, it seems very unlikely that large-scale integration structures will fade away under the pressure of globalization and competition with traditional and new major global actors. For the time being, there seems no alternative to integration, while the costs of rejecting integration projects appear unacceptable.
However, the internal dynamics of the integration associations, including their visas and borders, appear far from straightforward, as recently the EU countries have been partially revising the Schengen Agreement previously used for visa-free travel among the participating countries.
The review was caused by an influx of immigrants from North Africa after the Arab Spring. At the same time, the European Parliament allowed the member-countries to restore internal borders for a term up to six months in exceptional cases, although only with consent and under control of the European Union.
Future of the visa problem will greatly depend on the future supranational association, seen as a project through which states divide control over their national borders.
Visa-free travel for citizens of Russia
Integration of Romania and Bulgaria into the Schengen Area is still a problematic issue, as certain EU countries fear the inflow of migrants to their labor markets. According to German Minister of the Interior Hans-Peter Friedrich, Germans are not happy about newcomers entering the country purely in order to obtain benefits.
Similar problems exist in the post-Soviet space. Segments of Russian society demand that authorities introduce visas for citizens of Central Asian states, although many of them understand that such measures are sure to affect the integration project Russia is trying implement in the ex-USSR territory. Recognizing the need of a foreign passport for incoming Central Asians seems a half-measure. At the same time, neither Russia's nor the EU's measures can be considered a dramatic departure from the overall drive towards a visa-free regime and the abolition of border controls.
Russia and the EU
The future of visas will hinge not only on the dynamics within the supranational associations but also on relations between them, with the relationship between the European Union and Russia providing a good example. While Brussels and Russia already have to handle problems relating to the Eurasian Customs Union, at the next stage we are about to see the dialogue of two full-fledged integration associations.
Currently, talks regarding a visa-free regime are struggling. While Russia keeps expressing readiness to drop visa requirements for EU citizens, European officials call this step desirable, but only possible to implement in the far-off future.
The expanding chaos south of the EU cannot but push the European leaders to strengthen ties with Russia.
Brussels seems to be unwilling to abolish visas primarily for political reasons. A visa-free regime would call for closer cooperation, whereas Brussels is not yet prepared for such levels of openness and interaction due to its many objections to Russian foreign and domestic policy.
In addiiton, the European Union is unwilling to soften the visa regime for Russia’s neighbors, due to the belief that dropping visas for Russia while preserving them for countries within its geopolitical sphere of interest would send the latter the wrong signal.
Nevertheless, certain shifts have been taking place. Recently, Russia and the EU have agreed on a roadmap on visa abolishment, and reached an agreement on the troublesome issue of service passports. The cancellation of visa requirements for travel between Russia's Kaliningrad Region and northwestern Poland has been a symbolic move: for a year now, residents have been visiting their neighbors without visas by means of long-term multiple border-crossing permits.
If the existing integration associations remain
and continue to develop, some aspects of their
visa regimes will be simplified
Complete removal of the visa regime seems unlikely In the near future, but Kaliningrad Region could in fact become a pilot area. Russia and the EU can considerably simplify border controls and visa issuance by taking the Russian practice of crossing the Lithuanian territory by railway as a basis.
Today, Russians going in and out of Kaliningrad Region are obliged to obtain a simplified traveling paper, a quasi-visa, by buying a ticket at least two days before departure and possessing a foreign passport.
A similar scheme might serve as a basis for solution for the Russia-EU visa problem, so that Russian and EU citizens could acquire their visas at the border crossing under a simplified procedure – a development that might be expected in the not too distant future.
At the same time, the movement toward complete visa abolishment is likely to proceed along existing lines, i.e. parallel with strengthening controls at the external boundaries of the integration entities.
New Technologies and Challenges to Stability
State-of-the-art gadgets and information technologies will contribute to the gradual rejection of visas in EU-Russia relations. Government institutions are already gaining ever more technical aids to monitor movement of individuals, and this process is only likely to accelerate in the future.
Recently the EU countries have been partially
revising the Schengen Agreement previously
used for visa-free travel among the participating
countries
The next stage seems to be the creation of vast databases belonging to states and supranational associations. In future, these databases will likely be made available to other countries, at least where applicable for tracking illegal activity and border crossings. Prompt access to such information for government structures may considerably simplify the visa situation. To this end, more attention should be attached to modernization of the passport as a universal data carrier able to store a great deal of diverse information.
In the long term, electronic controls might enable border-guarding by a supranational body like Interpol, while some time later frontiers might disappear completely as movement of people will be monitored by electronics, including space-based systems.
However, in order to have a full-fledged data exchange system and create conditions to abandon visas for good, what we need is a level of trust impossible in the absence of strategic rapprochement, in this case between Russia and the EU. However, there seems to be no alternative in the long term, since both sides are facing the same challenges, a key one being migration from the global South.
Many regions adjacent to the EU and Russian borders are in havoc. The expanding chaos south of the EU cannot but push the European leaders to strengthen ties with Russia. Moscow, in its turn, is interested in closer contacts with one of its main trade partners.
With time, pressures from the South will only grow. Northern Africa, just like other parts of the continent, and the Middle East, will remain key suppliers of immigrants to the industrialized countries. And the region will export instability too. Russia has been facing similar problems vis-à-vis Central Asia, so the broadening hotbeds of instability make deeper cooperation between Russia and the EU inevitable, with the same true for the Russia-USA. relationship.
The Two-Speed World
The European Union is unwilling to soften
the visa regime for Russia’s neighbors, due to
the belief that dropping visas for Russia while
preserving them for countries within its
geopolitical sphere of interest would send
the latter the wrong signal
The developing architecture of international relations is sure to significantly alter the visa and border environment, since a multipolar world order is clearly taking shape, and cannot but change approaches to the visa issues.
We are witnessing the formation of regional and non-regional coalitions of various countries, and further rapprochement and expansion of mutual contacts within these associations will compel their participants to attempt to simplify visa procedures. This is particularly relevant, for example, for the BRICS countries.
Next in line is further democratization of the system of key international institutions. In this context, the emergence of the G20 seems quite symbolic. The trend towards engagement of more states in the global governance process will definitely continue, while reform and expansion of the UN Security Council also appear to be forthcoming.
The more proficient states driving these changes will be interested in data exchange, more global stability and the control of global processes. As a result, visa restrictions between them will gradually soften. At the same time, the less competent associations perceived as sources of volatility and security threats are likely face tougher visa and border policies, so that eventually we might expect emergence of a "two-speed world" similar to the "two-speed Europe".
(no votes) |
(0 votes) |
