... axis of resistance, it is possible to emphasize the possibility and ability of the axis of resistance to launch a comprehensive attack on Israel (and not just adopt a defensive policy), whether through a barrage of drones and missiles from all fronts (Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza), which will be accompanied by an attack electronic, such that the “Iron Dome” defense system is unable to fully confront such a large-scale attack capable of striking and disrupting air and naval bases, army centers, and infrastructure ...
The impeachment process of US President Donald Trump and the US role in the MENA region would determine the future of conflicts in many countries starting from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and the future government in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, Turkey and Iran
“When I thought I had already reached the bottom,
they knocked from below.”
— Stanislaw Jerzy Lec
This quote of the polish aphorist and poet of the 20
th
century, Stanislaw Jerzy Lec, serves as a perfect epigraph to this in-depth 2020 forecast ...
... and what consequences could that have for ISIS and international terrorism as a whole?
Andrey Kortunov, Michel Duclos:
Helping Iran to Make the Right Choice
The killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is definitely a further blow to ISIS as it eliminated its operational ... ... that ISIS is less of a hierarchical organization. The elimination of its leader will pose difficulties to its operations in Syria and Iraq, where they were already significantly weakened, but does not necessarily limit the capabilities of other members or affiliated ...
... and are supplied both to major regional players and to Russia’s less influential partners. Moscow has been involved in the exploitation of large hydrocarbon deposits and the construction of the related infrastructure in Egypt [
17
], Turkey [
18
], Syria [
19
], Iraq [
20
], and Iran [
21
] since late 2015. What is more, Russia works with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilise oil prices [
22
].
China has become the largest investor in the Middle East, surpassing the United States [
23
]. At ...
... however, it advocates for the restoration and strengthening of governmental security institutions (the armed forces and special services). This approach could increase the effectiveness of the fight against so-called Islamic State and other groups. Iran’s experience of operations in Iraq and particularly in Syria demonstrates that exploiting non-governmental and irregular armed groups does not work as planned. The existing groups may be expected to be disbanded as part of the post-conflict settlement process, and their soldiers may subsequently be incorporated ...
... and Europeans find ways to better coordinate their strategy with Russia, Syria and Iran — and seek out a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran? Can Turkey and other states help mediate the Syrian conflict while ultimately bringing the Syrians, Iranians and Saudis into a peace accord?
How should the U.S., Russia, and Europeans deal with the conflict between Turkey, Syria and the Kurds, and between Iraq and the Kurds, given Turkish, Syrian, and Iraqi option to the possibility that the Kurds might use the Syrian conflict to achieve independence in differing regions? Can a loose Kurdish confederation — that does not challenge existing borders — ...
... positive and negative consequences. Political gains may proceed from demonstration of determination, increased international role and responsibility of the Russian Federation, its ability to cooperate under crisis with a variety of powers - the US, EU, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Israel, Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian leadership, part of the Syrian opposition (although with different degree of success). A significant contribution of the Russian Federation to the collective efforts to achieve a settlement could engender international trust, so much needed at ...
... allies in the “apostate” Shiite regimes there. The two big culminations of these efforts in Iraq were in 2006, when Iraq nearly erupted into full-scale civil war, and in 2014, when ISIS nearly marched on Baghdad after taking much of the country ... ... though secular in ideology (Ba'athist), it is headed by Arab Alawite (a sect of Shiite Islam that is a small minority in Syria) Bashar al-Assad and is controlled mainly by Alawate Shiites. It is backed by Shiite Persian Iranians and the Arab Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Sunni Muslims, in general, do not like Shiites, and that is an understatement; ...
... opposition, 3.) has been very lightly involved compared with other major international meddlers in this conflict (e.g. Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, the Gulf states…), and 4.) since the overall post-2003 Iraq mess, for which the U.S. does bear a majority of overall responsibility, was actually at its best levels of security all throughout the first two years of the protests/fighting in Syria, we cannot even begin to argue that the U.S. destabilizing Iraq is one of the major reasons why the Syrian Civil War got ...
... stay and train/support Iraqi forces when Maliki would not grant them immunity. Nothing to complain about here, and I agree that a residual force would have been better but that is 100% on Maliki not granting immunity and having already committed to his Iranian allies that he would see our troops out in 2011. We will come to ISIS (and Obama’s mild military reengagement in Iraq) and Syria as separate issues.
Israeli/Palestinian Peace
Here, one may be tempted to make more of the efforts of the Obama Administration than they actually represent, but at the same time we should not minimize them.
To be sure, Obama has publicly ...
