... build a new world order and a new system of international relations that politicians, businessmen, diplomats and experts have anticipated since the end of the Cold War, has become increasingly dependent on market factors and transnational competition.
Ukraine found itself in the thick of the geo-economic confrontation between the two trade areas, closing in on it from either side. Although the Customs Union is a new and institutionally weak grouping, it is clear that an attempt at reformatting the economic space could arouse serious concern among European and American proponents of West-to-East market expansion. It should be noted that at the ...
... there are no ways to obviate such veto. Ukraine would never have such a ‘loud voice’ talking to its EU partners.
Photo: voanews.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting
with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych
Opting for the Customs Union, Ukraine would also strengthen its bargaining positions on the international stage and within the European Union. The Customs Unions has always stood guard on the interests of its producers and protected them from unfair competition. Becoming part of the ...
... Association Agreement. It’s been known that such an agreement would be against Russia’s well-articulated geopolitical interests, and that it would much prefer to see its South-Western neighbour join its own regional integration project, the Customs Union. It’s been known that Moscow will deploy every tool to undermine it – and that it has a number of areas for potential blackmail. It’s been known that therefore Ukraine will decide the integration contest Russia had provoked the EU into.
And it’s been known that Ukraine can go either way, because, as an editor of the Ukrainian weekly Zerkolo Nedeli put it to the Economist back in February, the country’s ...
... political governing bodies, as this would mean uncertainty about the exclusiveness of the European integration model. As I see the situation, the reinvigoration of the Eastern Partnership in 2012-2013 is a response to the emergence and growth of the Customs Union.
Ukraine’s Economic Choice
In this context, the economic integration of Ukraine is all of a sudden emerging from Kiev’s own choice as a key issue in Russia-EU relations. Effectiveness notwithstanding, the Russia-Belarus union has been too local ...
... the answer was given by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, stating: “one country cannot at the same time be a member of a customs union and be in a free trade area with the European Union.” [4] On the other hand, without Ukraine, the Customs Union and further integration projects of Russia may be unsustainable in the long term. [5]
Loosing Ukraine would be a great hit for Russia, and although we see that Russia will (have to) respect Ukraine’s decision, there are early warnings ...
... leverage on Russia, it sacrificed its core values to partner up with Ukraine, it would beyond doubt lose its essence, its raison d'être.
In the end, despite the numerous declarations of commitment from both sides, any advancement in the EU-Ukraine relations is unlikely as no side bows to the other. Whether an agreement to join the Customs Union will be reached is not for this article to reveal - but, amidst fears of 'becoming just another governor of Putin's', Mr Yanukovych will be pleased to hold on to his independence as long as he can while setting his ...
In Search of an Answer: From Chernovtsy to Brussels
Early in 2013, Ukraine is again facing a difficult choice of integration strategies. In fact, the European Union, which Ukraine has been so eager to join is undergoing a severe economic crisis, while the Common Economic Space – Customs Union (CES-CU) is gaining strength even in these economically tough times. The overall historical and political context suggests that Kiev will again fail to choose a clear trajectory. However, the preference, albeit declarative, that Ukraine ...
... wisely used as a political instrument of Russia’s foreign policy on numerous occasions. Recent news that Moscow sent Kyiv a huge gas bill [3] is open for various interpretations. On the one hand several Western media claimed that Russia is pushing Ukraine into the Customs Union by imposing very strict conditions regarding payments for gas. On the other hand it is undoubtedly a legitimate demand of Russia to get their money for services and goods it provided. Both scenarios offer its part of the truth. Opinion polls ...
