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The (First) Russo-American Cyberwar: How Obama Lost & Putin Won, Ensuring a Trump Victory

... Russia’s desired outcomes being achieved in the US, the UK, Italy, Bulgaria, and Moldova, while seeing trends favorable to its interests significantly increased in places like Germany and Austria. Furthermore, U.S. and NATO “ally” Turkey has taken a decidedly sharp anti-democratic and anti-Western plunge and is clearly cozying up to Russia. 2017 may be even better for the Kremlin, and even worse for what is still referred to as the West. This is the new face of warfare, one ...

Frydenborg Brian
Опубликовано:
17.12.2016 22:44:00

Does Russia still have a “Kurdish card” to play in Syria?

... between Moscow and the Kurds has provided Russia with a “Kurdish card”, that is, the ability to modulate its support to various Kurdish national ambitions throughout the Middle East, depending on what the Kremlin was seeking to obtain from Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. The current Syrian crisis is no exception and has promoted the Russian-Kurdish (PYD[1]) partnership, especially during the period of harsh tensions between Russia and Turkey. This partnership has three goals: fighting terrorism,...

Delanoe Igor
Опубликовано:
15.09.2016 10:44:00

Will Erdogan resort to regional nuclear blackmail?

The failed “military coup” in Turkey last month is still replete with discrepancies, insinuations and outright lies. Disinformation and recriminations continue to swirl like an impenetrable black hole, blotting out cogent questions over the innumerable bloopers in this poorly-scripted ...

Maavak Mathew
Опубликовано:
02.08.2016 15:11:00

NATO Black Sea Flotilla. A reef in the Turkish Straits

... Rotational Force which is dispatched at the Mihail Kogălniceanu airbase, and provides the US with a naval support facility in Deveselu. This NATO flotilla would primarily rely on NATO Black Sea members naval capabilities (i.e. Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey), but would not be restricted to them, with prospects to join already offered to Ukraine and Georgia, while some Western navies would be contributing as well (in particular the US, Italian and German).[1] Taking into account that all Black Sea ...

Delanoe Igor
Опубликовано:
27.04.2016 12:26:00

Western Democracy Is on Trial, More than Any Time Since WWII

... okay with the erosion of democratic values and a deeply undemocratic military occupation of the West Bank as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict stifles Israel’s left and drives its people further to the right. The assault on democratic norms in Turkey by its government is far worse. Still worse in that region, the Arab Spring has, in general, become a massive tragedy. Archive Additionally, democracy by no means appears stable or secure overall in either Sub-Saharan Africa or in Latin America....

Frydenborg Brian
Опубликовано:
17.04.2016 14:28:00

Russia straddles two sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute

... the Kremlin has tried to come up with what Fenenko describes as “a balanced partnership” — “maintaining the collaborative relations with Armenia” and “a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan.” However, given Turkey’s political stakes in Azerbaijan and the sharp decline in Moscow-Ankara relations resulting from Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet near the Syrian border last year, the Kremlin’s attempts to straddle between Yerevan and Baku might ...

Direct Russia
Опубликовано:
13.04.2016 00:52:00

Turkey’s price arbitrage with Gazprom over Turkish Stream

... following Russia’s cancellation of South Stream which became a casualty of Russia-Ukrainian conflict and faced high opposition from the EU with regard to its anti-monopoly laws. The original plan for landfall in the EU (Bulgaria) will now occur in Turkey, while the distribution hub for Europe will be located at the border of Turkey and Greece. Being a strategically important transit point for Russian gas going to Europe and bypassing Ukraine, Turkey tries to increase its bargaining power and engages ...

Tikhonova Anna
Опубликовано:
07.04.2016 22:33:00

Why Israeli-Russian relations will only get better.

... acknowledges that both countries share lots of similarities in terms of perceiving the regional security setting and balance of powers. The rising influence of Russia is behind the Netanyahu’s decision to halt its historic reconciliation with Turkey. Putin perceived the downing of a Russian Su-24 jet as a backstabbing and it is unlikely that Russian-Turkish relations will normalize as long as Erdogan is in charge. Netanyahu understands that rapprochement if taken place is only happening ...

Фроловский Дмитрий
Опубликовано:
18.03.2016 16:51:00

What lessons should politics learn from religion?

... how rigorously politicians try to prevent it. Given the lack of effective communication channels between Russian and Western political elites and top brass, the possibility of the war, even though hypothetical, is increasing amidst the tension between Turkey and Russia. The world might underestimate the Turkey factor in Russia-West relations and its implications for the world stability, when it was probably the case during the onset of the Ukraine crisis, before the Euromaidan protests turned into ...

Direct Russia
Опубликовано:
20.02.2016 21:15:00

Russia Reaping What It Sows in Syria: Putin Puts Russia on Path to Peril & Destabilizing Middle East; Downing Russian Plane by Turkey Latest Result

In the wake of Turkey’s downing of a Russian military jet that violated its airspace and Russia’s resulting casualties, tensions are certainly on the rise. Despite the fact that these tensions should not be overblown, important questions about Putin’s ...

Frydenborg Brian
Опубликовано:
13.12.2015 16:44:00

On Both Sides of Turkish Stream

... to strong EU and U.S. objections, which would have supplied southern-eastern Europe with Russian natural gas, Russia sought an alternative route to maintain Gazprom’s stronghold in European energy markets – under the Black Sea and through Turkey. Turkish Stream is an undertaking of four lines, the first of which would deliver gas solely to Turkey, while the remaining three would expand to Europe via an energy hub on the Greek-Turkish border, although their ultimate destinations remain ...

Power Kalea
Опубликовано:
20.07.2015 12:26:00

In Time, Expect Big Changes in America's Middle East Relationships

... targeting specific groups, avoiding picking an overall-rebels-or-regime side. Don’t expect heavy U.S. involvement, private sector engagement, or investment in specific countries until they settle down. 3.) Things may go downhill with Israel and Turkey. I know what you’re thinking: Turkey is in NATO! And Israel, well, is Israel! Well, with Turkey, President Erdoğan is pulling a bit of a Putin: manipulating the system to ensure he will be in power for a very, very long time and pushing ...

Frydenborg Brian
Опубликовано:
19.01.2015 17:46:00

Why independent Kurdistan is a part of Russian grand strategy

By Zhyldyz Oskonbaeva (RIEAS Senior Advisor & Eurasian Liaison) On a number of levels, the situation between the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the ethnic Kurds of Syria, Iraq and Turkey is creating a power shift that no one is discussing. In this article, I will explain why: 1) The Kurds have an unprecedented opportunity to achieve a political homeland; 2) Tehran's strategy of expanding Shia influence over the Sunnis is ...

RIEAS Research Institute for European and American Studi
Опубликовано:
05.11.2014 18:52:00

Predicting critical events, an institutional challenge.

“Close your eyes and you’re not sure if it’s an Israeli or a Saudi speaking.” That’s what Daniel Levy, Middle East director at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told The New York Times in an article dated March 31st. The ECFR, which has called for a greater role for Al Qaeda in Algeria to “promote democracy,” is funded mainly by George Soros. The New York Times sourced Levy about the latest attempt by Israel and Saudi Arabia to cooperate...

Эрманн Эрик
Опубликовано:
22.05.2014 01:04:00

Nuclear geopolitics. Shifting sands along Africa’s Uranium Road

A groundswell of popular articles and academic monographs are appearing that discuss nuclear guided missile warfare, modernizing delivery platforms, warheads and sophisticated guidance systems. On the power curve one sees a major realignment of diplomatic relationships among major powers that seek to control threats but provide opportunities for new situations to develop. Refugees and fundamentalist agitators have become pawns in the game. The trend is reinforced by news and expert analysis about...

Эрманн Эрик
Опубликовано:
19.02.2014 18:44:00

Pugwash… The Contemporary Relevance Of The 1995 Nobel Peace Prize

Pugwash became part of the Cold War realpolitik before the advent of soft power, public diplomacy, the internet and social media. Henry Kissinger was still at Harvard. Robert MacNamara was managing the biggest failure in the history of the Ford Motor Company, the ill-fated Edsel automobile; the highly publicized wunderkind who computerized the Pentagon and the Vietnam War wasn’t made president of Ford until two months before the Kennedy transition team chose him to be U.S. Secretary of Defense...

Эрманн Эрик
Опубликовано:
29.11.2013 03:23:00

Proliferation And The Psychopathology of Prohibition

While praised as a triumph of contemporary diplomacy the United Nations regime to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological) seems to have enabled every nation that wants a WMD capability to obtain the technology to become a threat, or in the case of terrorists and other non-state actors, to employ proxy governments who engage in WMD commerce to use it as a bargaining chip for other objectives. In spite of four Nobel Peace Prizes (Bunche, Arafat, Rabin, Peres)...

Эрманн Эрик
Опубликовано:
30.10.2013 07:12:00

Euro League: EU vs Russia

... for the huge issues that will be incurred by the union. On the other hand, if Moscow's Central Asian populace will flock to the EU instead and free up some of the traffic problems and high apartmental prices, I may reconsider my stance. Is Turkey On The Table? Still, participation of Central Asian states in the EU may not be as radical as Turkey’s, which Umland sees bearing fruits after original attempts all the way back to the 1960s. He does anticipate that such membership will ...

Ossipov Igor
Опубликовано:
25.10.2013 20:32:00

The Oxymoronic Déjà Vu of Humanitarian Bombing in Syria

In light of the recent developments in Syria and the apparently imminent US military intervention, the blog will take a short break from its relatively academic style and its thematic focus in order to brainstorm and share some thoughts on the broader picture of what is happening in the geopolitical arena of the region. Dangerous Double Standards Bashar al-Assad has reportedly used chemical weapons to attack, essentially, his own people. The first, logically obvious question is why would Assad essentially...

Machairas Dimitrios
Опубликовано:
07.09.2013 14:04:00

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Poll conducted

  1. Korean Peninsula Crisis Has no Military Solution. How Can It Be Solved?
    Demilitarization of the region based on Russia-China "Dual Freeze" proposal  
     36 (35%)
    Restoring multilateral negotiation process without any preliminary conditions  
     27 (26%)
    While the situation benefits Kim Jong-un's and Trump's domestic agenda, there will be no solution  
     22 (21%)
    Armed conflict still cannot be avoided  
     12 (12%)
    Stonger deterrence on behalf of the U.S. through modernization of military infrastructure in the region  
     4 (4%)
    Toughening economic sanctions against North Korea  
     2 (2%)
 
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