Vinay Shukla's blog

India-Russia Ties Confidently Move on into Year of Dog

February 6, 2018
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Flickr / Y Nakanishi

As the world ushers in the Year of Dog according the ancient Chinese Lunar calender, it would be appropriate to review what its predecessor, the Year of Rooster had in store for the relations of China 's two neighbouring giants - India and Russia.

The Year of Rooster - 2017 has been a defining year in India-Russia relations, when Moscow and New Delhi marked the 70th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic ties with extensive exchanges of high profile visits and cultural delegations at various levels. Perhaps it was for the first time in more than past two decades all key members of the Indian Cabinet including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament visited Russia to reiterate that ties with Moscow remain important for New Delhi, although in accordance with its vital national interests, it has adopted a multi-pronged approach in building relations with the rival world powers.

As New Delhi and Moscow headed for the anniversary, there were also marked cynicism and doubts about the future of this relationship and questions were being asked whether to retire it at 70 and find new equations in the rapidly unfolding new scenarios and shaping of a new post-unipolar world order.

To be precise, for over a decade or more, there has been a visible stagnation in the bilateral relations on the backdrop of New Delhi's growing bonhomie with Washington on one hand and Moscow's deepening ties with Beijing and growing engagement with India's arch foe Pakistan on the other, taking a toll on the level of deep mutual trust traditionally enjoyed by by them since Cold War era. It would be wrong to assume that the stagnation in bilateral relations crept in with the advent of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014.

Even in the final years of United Progressive Alliance government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, India's Russia policy had lost its focus. This author was privy to many discussions with Indian diplomats, who were at loss about the real intentions of the government and had no fresh ideas about keeping this relationship robust and vibrant.

By the the third annual summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2016 October in Goa, the public opinion about Russia's policy in India's neighbourhood (Pakistan and China) had nosedived, when Moscow had gone ahead with first ever joint military drills with Pakistan in the wake of pre-dawn cross border strike at a military camp in Jammu & Kashmir killing at least 17 Indian troops.

This further fanned the sentiments to jump on the US band wagon to counter China as Russia, deeply involved in an informal alliance with Beijing, was no more a reliable partner.

Frankly speaking, the unpredictable policies and contradictory statements of the new US administration of President Donald Trump was an ice-bucket challenge for the vocal supporters of New Delhi's close alliance with Washington for containing China amid its growing influence in India's neighbourhood including expanding Chinese naval activity in the Indian Ocean.

However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's St. Petersburg visit in June 2017 for annual summit with President Vladimir Putin was a landmark visit during which the Indian leader not only had held wide ranging talks with his Russian host, but also attended St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, a sort of Eurasian Davos, indicating importance of Russia for India and willingness to repair and strengthen trade and economic relationship with Moscow - the weak pillar of bilateral strategic 'privileged' partnership.

At their 18th annual summit in Russia's former imperial capital the leaders of India and Russia on June 1 adopted a joint declaration - A Vision for 21st Century, laying the roadmap for further strengthening and growth of bilateral relations in civil nuclear energy, joint development of advanced weapon systems and platforms, widest cooperation in combating terrorism, and boosting economic cooperation and trade between the two countries, which currently stands less than USD 10 billion.

The visuals released during the St. Petersburg summit manifested a strong personal chemistry between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. It may be a good tool to resolve misunderstandings and misconceptions , but it is certainly not enough to put the bilateral relationship into autopilot mode, especially when we see overt and covert attempts to scuttle their military-technical cooperation - the strongest pillar of India-Russia Strategic 'Privileged' Partnership. Almost all the key Russian figures and companies involved in arms supplies to India are under US sanctions, simultaneously with Russia's Western rivals seeking deeper access to the Indian arms bazaar.

However, it would be appropriate to note that in money terms the US has overtaken Russia in arms sales to India, but it is far behind in offering and providing the kind of cutting edge defence technology, weapon systems and platforms like S-400 advanced air defence systems, BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles and help in indigenous nuclear powered submarines.

At the time when new equations are emerging under the pressure of tectonic geopolitical shifts in Eurasia and Indo-Pacific, the main thing for both New Delhi and Moscow is to remain committed to their 'privileged' strategic partnership in spite of differences in each-other's foreign policy goals at any given juncture. The spirit of this partnership should be used to repair the damage done to our mutual trust through a broad based free and frank exchange of views on the core strategic concerns of each other, which even today are mostly common or similar.

Soon the world will usher in the Year of Dog. The Chinese believe the Year of the Dog is that sometimes we can discover opportunities by having a mindset that is open to possibilities. Precisely this type of mindset is required in India-Russia bilateral relations.

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