Is the Game Over Yet?

When I wrote that it was too soon to talk about peace, it was hard to imagine that even that would soon sound too optimistic. The prospect of peace is ever so much more distant now, because on July 6, the First Front (aka the Armando Rios Front) declared that it would not join the ceasefire and demobilization initiative. The group’s press statement says that the factors that forced the FARC to take to arms back in the 1960s persist, and the government is not willing to make any changes. Therefore, the First Front would continue its struggle for power and protect the interests of the Colombian people.

Photo: President of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Timoleón Jiménez, Habana, July 23, 2016, flickr.com/Presidencia El Salvador

The government’s response was immediate and harsh. It is often forgotten that the current peace-making president Juan Manuel Santos used to be one of the Colombian Hawks, who have always favoured tough measures when it comes to resolving conflicts. It was during his time that several successful military campaigns were carried out against the guerrillas, such as Odysseus and Sodom, which took down the FARC’s key ideologists and leaders, Jorge Briceño Suárez (Mono Jojoy) and Guillermo León Saenz (Alfonso Cano). Santos stressed from the very onset that the current Cuban agreements were the last chance for all the insurgents, and those who refuse to honour them would “end up in the grave or in prison”.

Historically, the First Front is a major and influential part of the guerrilla movement, and their non-endorsement of the peace process undermines the latter considerably. Why exactly did they refuse to demobilize? The answer lies in the group’s “specialization”: they control the territories with large quantities of cultivated coca and cocaine production, which gives them almost complete financial independence from the rest of the guerrilla. Moreover, they control a considerable part of the drug traffic routes in southeast Colombia. The Armando Rios Front is also known for its successful practice of kidnappings for ransom. It is not in their interests to follow the peace process, as it threatens their sources of funding.

However, it would also be premature to talk about the process being disrupted or halted. Several FARC leaders are already on their way from Havana to discipline their foot soldiers so that no other front would follow the example of the Armando Rios Front. The Front’s refusal to obey the guerrilla leaders has been an unpleasant surprise for the Cuban delegation of insurgents themselves, which means they will do everything to bring their ranks in order – otherwise President Santos’ threats may be directed at them.